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Jan 15,, 6 tweets, 3 min read
Recently we and other researchers have observed videos with what we believe are launchers and other vehicles of Iskander-M operational and tactical missile systems, moving west on trains across Russia, some as far west as the Urals. ImageImageImage
Railcar tracking data tells us that trains carrying Iskander-M elements originate from at least two points: Ulan-Ude and Birobidzhan, close to the bases of Iskander-armed 103rd and 107th Missile Brigades, respectively.

TikTok comments also mention 107th Brigade on the move. Image
Iskander-M brigades are army-level assets, which suggests that the westward movements from all four armies the Western Military District that we have observed earlier involve significant elements of those armies, not just separate battalion tactical groups
The Ministry of Defence has handwaved those movements as exercises ahead of the big Vostok-2022 maneuvers.

However, Vostok is 8 months away, and the MoD has previously explained troop transfers towards Ukraine with exercises in 2014 and 2015 during the "hot phase" of the war.
We will keep a close eye on the situation with Russian forces concentration near Ukraine.

The situation is extremely fluid, as our colleague notes here, but we will try to keep you as informed as possible.
Eastern Military District, duh*

potayto, potahto...

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More from @CITeam_en

CIT (en) Profile picture
Jan 17,
Today @MotolkoHelp posted photographs and a video of a train carrying Russian military vehicles, reportedly filmed near Minsk, Belarus.

According to railcar trackers, the train comes from Ruzhino station in Russia's Far East.



@MotolkoHelp The closest unit to Ruzhino station is 16th Radiation, Biological and Chemical Defence Brigade of the Eastern Military District based in Lesozavodsk.

One of the vehicles seen on the train matches an RHM-6 Chemical Reconnaissance Vehicle. Image
@MotolkoHelp In a recent comment on TikTok, a woman writes that her soldier son recently left Lesozavodsk with his unit's vehicles, having signed a "paper" (possibly a none-disclosure agreement).

Many other comments left by soldiers and their acquaintances mention deployment to Belarus. Image
Read 4 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Jan 12,
In the past week, we and other researchers have noticed videos on social media showing military vehicles on trains in Russia's Far East, moving West.

Trucks, tanks IFVs and MLRS can be seen on the flatbed railcars. Eyewitnesses report several trains per week or even per day.
Russia's security services take steps to hide those trains from open databases, but indirect data points to departure from the bases of all four armies of Russia's Eastern Military District.

Some trains are already seen further west than the EMD, suggesting unusual redeployment.
Given that Russia's paratroopers are soon to leave Kazakhstan, the only other likely destination is near Ukraine, where they'd join other Russian units already there.

Videos filmed from the trains themselves suggest at least some personnel is moving with the vehicles.
Read 5 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Apr 22, 2021
1/
Today @mod_russia's Sergei Shoigu gave an order to pull troops amassed around Ukraine back to their bases.

Here's why it is too early to stop worrying (yet)

tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/1…
2/ First, the order states that the equipment of the 41st army (which includes tanks and heavy MLRS), transferred from Siberia, is to remain in a camp south of Voronezh until Zapad-2021 strategic military exercises which aren't due till September.

3/
 With the vehicles already in place, transferring just the personnel back to Voronezh would take days, not weeks.

It also should be noted that the order states the pullout will complete as early as May 1, while the initial deployment took nearly a month.
Read 5 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Apr 21, 2021
1/
In yet another TikTok video of a military train, researchers spotted a Kasta-2-2 radar station. We checked the carriage ID in a railcar tracker and found out the train was going to Crimea from Chita in the Russian Far East.
2/
The train was going to Aivazovskaya station in Crimea which we earlier noted as an unloading site for trains carrying elements of the 58th army from North Caucasus, which presumably ended up at a training ground in eastern Crimea.
3/
 Kasta radars are known to be used by radiotechnical regiments attached to anti-air divisions and air bases.

The only unit like this in the area is the 342nd Radiotechnical Regiment.

This is the first unit of Eastern Military District we've seen going to Crimea.
Read 4 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Apr 18, 2021
1/
@derspiegel has obtained satellite images of aRussian military camp at a training ground in east Crimea, some 280 km by road from Ukraine-controlled territory.

We believe it shows elements of the 58th Army, recently transferred from North Caucasus.
spiegel.de/politik/auslan… Image
2/
As we and other researchers have noted, units from the 58th Army (known for the 2008 Russia-Georgia war) have been arriving to Crimea, including the 291st Artillery and the 136th Motorized brigades.



3/
Note that the unloading areas for military vehicle trains all point to east Crimea, same as videos filmed on the eastern part of the E97 ("Tavrida") highway.

This suggests that the 58th army units were indeed going into the recently discovered camp. Image
Read 6 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Apr 4, 2021
1/
 Yesterday, we suggested that Russia might be moving troops towards Ukraine from the Central Military District, which lies in the Urals and Siberia.

Now we have confirmation, indicating something more than a routine exercise.
citeam-ru.medium.com/%D0%BF%D0%BE%D…

2/
Yet another video of a train with Russian military vehicles was posted on TikTok on April 2.

@666_mancer spotted a carriage number and ran it through "gdevagon" - a railcar tracking databse.

The carriage is travelling from Yurga in Siberia to Voronezh at the border.
@666_mancer 3/

We were tipped off about yet another military train video - this time on VKontakte, filmed in Novosibirsk (we confirmed the location, with the train heading west).

In the comments, they said the "kontractniki" (professional soldiers) from Yurga were sent towards Ukraine.
Read 6 tweets

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