One more Saturday of going into $COST not to spend more than $100 and coming out with a $300 bill. 🤦♂️What's new?
(Also some food sampling & peeking into other carts involved).
Do you want 14oz for $4 or 18oz for $14? Savings or convenience? Choose quick. 🙂
Anyway, $COST is one company I regret for not owning long enough as a pick for steady growth part of my portfolio.
Back in 2015-17, I used to fear Amazon Prime competition (thinking millennials and younger gens might favor it), but based on execution in the last few yrs & E-commerce growth, I think this Company & moat are only getting stronger.
Whether or not you want to pay up for that quality is each investor's decision.
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Ready for some chart crimes? I'm going to show 10 charts & come to the conclusions that prove my point. Haha.. just kidding, but I do want to share some interesting stuff.
Metric mainly being used is Gross Profit/EV Yield (LTM). Used @KoyfinCharts for these.
Yes I'm aware that there's a mile wide gap between Gross Profit and FCF, but a good GM margin along with huge yrly growth affords the company to spend on OPEX (hopefully spending in the right areas) while building a durable company & getting towards sustainable FCF generation.
Although I have used EV/GP/NTM growth before, I haven't used the inverted metric (LTM) to see what yield we're getting on the GP (unlike the FCF yield used on mature companies).
Over the next few weeks, the high Macro uncertainty along with Q4 results (surprises & over-reactions) is sure to create some very interesting opportunities to initiate or slowly increase positions in some of these growth sectors if you understand them well.
✔️Time to put the head down
✔️Tune out the random online opinions (comparisons to 2000-02, how much pain there is ahead....)
✔️Focus on each business based on it's own merit
✔️Do the things that are in the best long term interest of your Portfolio.
That is if we can
✔️Tune out the noise while still giving enough importance to the major Macro factors
✔️have good understanding and high conviction in those growth companies
I had a lot of fun writing this thread few months ago.
Understandably many folks are not excited about growth Cos now (especially unprofitable ones, even if high quality) but many multi-baggers are born during tough times (if you find/hold high quality)
When Mr. Market goes crazy, I always try to oblige him with some buys.
$SE : Add at $198
$FVRR : Add at $95
$GDRX : Add at $28
$COIN : New at $236
Positions I'm🤏close on adding : $SQ $TWLO $U
Maybe next up : $ETSY $SHOP $ZS
Have to save some $$ for the Earnings season.
Taking a short pause (for Portfolio weighting reasons) : $ROKU $TTD $UPST
Favs from watchlist: $CVNA $RBLX $HUBS
Thankful for : Big Tech & Healthcare/Consumer Cos in my Portfolio for not sinking (yet), providing me some sanity and courage to buy during this period.
My usual playbook during these times.
-Mostly adding to existing holdings. Occasionally initiating positions in new companies.
-Cash for the purchases comes from new incoming cash, previous sales after thesis being completed or being busted and...
Being aware of our own biases along with crowd psychology is an important part of investor toolkit.
We've all been thru these phases, but a little less gloating during the good times and little less panicking during the bad times, will ensure sanity and good long-term results.