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Alastair Thompson

@althecat

Oct 26

Who owns RCP politics?

Because…

it’s headline arithmetic system is borked

259 to 269 electoral votes ain’t possible

That said at the moment This is now Trump’s election to lose in the polling. And the turning point was September 30th.

What happened on September 30th?

A lot of really bad shit in Gaza. And through most of October.

So it looks like if Kamala Harris loses the election it is because of Democratic Party support for Israel’s Genocide.

Read 5 tweets

Alastair Thompson

@althecat

Oct 26

U.S. warns Tehran against retaliation after Israeli strikes in Iran Haaretz haaretz.com/us-news/2024-1…

The Biden administration has told Tehran through an intermediary that it should avoid responding to the Israeli strikes in Iran on Friday and allow the U.S. to bring an end to the ongoing cycle of hostilities between the nations,

The messages were relayed through a third-party country that maintains diplomatic relations with Iran, indicating that the U.S. would increase its efforts in the coming days to achieve an agreement to end the war in Gaza and Lebanon. An Iranian response to the strike, the message warned, would hinder the American diplomatic efforts in the region.

Since the start of the Israeli strikes in Iran on Friday night, the U.S. administration has been signaling that this move aligns with President Biden's requests to Israel to target only military sites, rather than oil production facilities or Iran's nuclear program.

In the weeks leading up to the strike, Biden provided Israel with a ballistic missile defense system, while also publicly opposing an Israeli strike that would harm Iran's oil industry, due to concerns that such an action would destabilize oil markets and increase global energy prices.

A senior administration official said Biden encouraged "Prime Minister [Netanyahu] to design a response that served to deter further attacks in Israel while reducing risk of further escalation."

The administration clarified that the U.S. did not participate in the Israeli strike, but it's warning to Iran included a message that an Iranian response against Israel might lead to direct U.S. involvement in the conflict.

"Should Iran choose to respond, we are fully prepared to once again defend against any attack ... If Iran chooses to respond once again, we will be ready, and there will be consequences for Iran once again," a senior administration official said. "This should be the end of this direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran."

In the days leading up to the IDF offensive, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited the Middle Eastin an effort to revive negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages held there.

The French government convened an international conference in Paris on the war in Lebanon, aiming to build a global consensus for ending the conflict based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701. France also sent a direct message to Iran, urging it to avoid responding to the Israeli strike to avoid disrupting these efforts.
… continues.

The Americans are currently examining two possible deals regarding Gaza. One option is a "small deal" under which a single-digit number of hostages held by Hamas would be released, and Israel would announce a two-week ceasefire in the region. It remains unclear if this deal would include the release of a certain number of Palestinian prisoners. The goal of this deal would be to lay the groundwork for a larger agreement, with precise details to be negotiated during the limited cease-fire, ultimately leading to the release of all hostages and an end to the war.

Meanwhile, a more extensive deal is also being considered, one that would involve the release of all hostages, an agreed-upon number of Palestinian prisoners, an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and an end to the war. This option currently appears less likely and is expected to face strong opposition from Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition partners from the far-right parties – Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.

Both ministers have voiced opposition to reopening negotiations for a hostage deal and expressed disapproval in security cabinet discussions of even a smaller deal that would include a temporary cease-fire. The U.S. administration is aware of their opposition but hopes that if Hamas agrees to one of the proposals, public pressure in Israel might compel the government to agree to the deal.

/ends @threadreaderapp unroll

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Alastair Thompson

@althecat

Oct 26

Video Thread: Israel-Gaza-Lebanon Security Crisis.

This post Israeli calibrated retaliation on Iran for its attacks during the height of this crisis (attacks by Iran also very calibrated) opens the Overton Window for a resolution of the entire post, October 7th Hamas Attack,initiated crisis.

It also shows considerable diplomatic pressure - possibly the most intense so far- was applied on Israel by the U.S to secure this result.

youtube.com/live/gCNeDWCI0…

The first video is from @AJEnglish’s flagship Inside Story breaking news service and was published yesterday, before last nights very calibrated Israeli response by Israel over night. One which has not escalated the crisis.

It addresses divided European policy positions on the issue of an arms embargo on Israel - Spain-France (yes) vs Germany Netherlands. Other nations are also split and several have formally announced recognition of Palestine.

[NB: The UK is now out of Europe and no longer has a formal influence in Brussels EU institutional deliberations .]

🔴 Al Jazeera English | Live youtube.com/live/gCNeDWCI0… via @YouTube

@AJEnglish’s love coverage of the attack is still watchable and begins roughly one hour ago on the current live stream.

Aljazeera ought to publish this full live stream as it is outstanding.

The Inside Story episode mentioned above appears to precede the attacks based on initial remarks from participants. It should be available on demand on YouTube Shortly.

The conclusion we can draw from this is that U.S. public and private diplomacy around this was extremely deftly managed and choreographed.

And this is therefore the best opportunity to end this war since it started. Israel may have even agreed on a communications strategy going forward on this, however implausible this suggestion may seem.

Correction: The @InsideStory édition on Europe mentioned in the OP was live. But I suspect recorded yesterday based on speakers referring to the attacks having not yet occurred in the opening minutes.

This is a screenshot showing the time spot of broadcast of early Aljazeera coverage of the attacks. 2.20 pm CEST Is the current time.

To view this now you can scroll back the red line to around 10 hours ago.

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Alastair Thompson

@althecat

Oct 23

Whilst we are on the subject of U.S. Secretary of State @SecBlinken’s abject incompetence it is worth recalling that Foggy Bottom has seen a procession of senior official resignations in the State Department over the course of this war. Experienced career diplomats of the U.S. Govt. Who resigned during the last year over their perception of his mismanagement.

Some of them resigned after writing internal memoranda or “dissent” notes. Others including notably the Arabic Language Public Diplomacy spokeswoman who could no longer stomach being told to gaslight the Arabic public with the State Department’s official talking points.

Others resigned because reports and assessments they wrote were edited or binned because they did not fit the official narrative with respect to Israel’s IDF’s operations or humanitarian law breaches.

Others resigned because they became so frustrated with what was happening that they wanted to publicly state their concerns.

These brave souls were sufficiently horrified about what they were seeing happening within @SecBlinken’s State Department that they were willing to give up in some cases many decades of work, effectively ending their diplomatic careers at considerable personal and financial cost for the Department in order to be able to publicly criticise the Department.

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Alastair Thompson

@althecat

Oct 23

Throughout the war that began on October 7th is a massive disconnect between the reality of what is actually happening in Israel and now Lebanon and the mutterings of the United States Chief Diplomat Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

And as the slaughter in Gaza reaches new depths of depravity he has once again returned to Israel to beg it to live up to its humanitarian obligations, whilst at the same time the U.S. Military is running a constant daily air-lift operation providing Israel with the weapons it has used to destroy Gaza absolutely and is now in the process of using to destroy large swathes of Lebanon including the capital Beirut.

The entire world has been watching this horror show in near real time now for more than a year. And we know what happens next as it has happened more than a dozen times before.

@SecBlinken. Will depart from Israel and return to Foggy Bottom and the long suffering State Dept. spokespeople will provide nonsensical non answers to questions from the media about whether or not Israel is or is not complying with American requests wrt the killing of civilians in Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon.

We will be told once again perhaps for the 50tg or 60th time that:

- Israel has a right to defend itself
- Hamas and Hezbollah are terrorist organisations
- That decisions about aid and military operations are entirely up to Israel because it is a “sovereign nation”
- That Iran is responsible for all of this
- That the U.S. is shocked about. X or y and that concerns have been raised with Israel about civilian casualties or humanitarian workers & journalists being killed and that investigations are underway (but no results of any of these inquiries will be issued)
- That the U.S. is particularly concerned about settler violence in the West Bank (Perhaps because those are the good Palestinians vs those in Gaza who are all Hamas?)

Bur there will be no accountability or answers to any of these questions. We have seen this script now hundreds of times. It is on repeat.

@SecBlinken appears to now be finished on this performative trip to Israel. He will soon depart to visit Saudi Arabia presumably in an attempt to placate them, and sell them arms or similar.

If Blinken was serious about the obviously out of control, nation-on-fire level crisis situation in Israel one might think he would stay on and demand some clear commitments from @IsraeliPM Netanyahu.

How can anything be important enough for him to move on to Saudi Arabia in the teeth of this crisis?

Yet he will doubtless do just that. We have seen this script before. Qatar and Egypt likely don’t want to see him at this point anyway. What would be the point. No doubt they are equally sick of being gaslighted.

Read 4 tweets

Alastair Thompson

@althecat

Oct 23

The World Health organisation has cancelled the second round of polio vaccinations in Northern Gaza because of the dire security situation.

This risks a polio outbreak for children in not only Northern Gaza but undermining the entire polio vax effort bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w1…

The episode also reports on @SecBlinken’s minimalist remarks to media during his current mission to Israel. On the face of it his remarks are more in the form of a triumphal description of Israel’s recent military successes rather than what would be expected given the renewed outbreak of famine and polio in Gaza.

However this is not at all surprising based on all previous missions by @SecBlinken to consult with @IsraeliPM Netanyahu. x.com/secblinken/sta…

Here are his remarks with Israeli President Herzog.

QUESTION: Mr. President, do you think that the killing of Sinwar creates an opening for a ceasefire deal? And Mr. Secretary, do you think that that creates an opening for a ceasefire?
SECRETARY BLINKEN: Mr. President.
PRESIDENT HERZOG: So yes, so I’ll say a few words in Hebrew and then in English.
(In Hebrew.)
(In English) Mr. Secretary, it’s an honor to have you with us. You are a great friend. I want to thank the administration for its support of the state of Israel in so many fields. I want to thank the administration for the new THAAD system which is being installed in Israel. We are of course ready and operating in various fronts, serving a great cause for the free world.
In respect to Gaza, I was moved to see, Mr. Secretary, that you’ve met with the families of the hostages. It is the highest plight in this crisis, in this war, and we know that there is a unique opportunity that, following the killing of Sinwar and the other circumstances that have evolved, there is a unique opportunity to make a special effort to employ all tools necessary and possible to move forward and bring the hostages back home.
As for the northern front, we are in a different situation. There, we’ve been constantly attacked for a year already, and definitely in the last few weeks, constantly attacked from Lebanon. And that is why we have to take all the steps possible to eradicate the capabilities of Hizballah, to move forward in preventing the onslaught against the citizens of Israel and the cities and towns. Their attacks with drones, missiles, rockets, their attack on the private home of the prime minister – it’s all part of a major campaign which, at the end of it all, is led and commanded in Tehran. And that is why, of course, a major answer has to be made towards Tehran.
Thank you, Mr. Secretary, and welcome to Israel.
SECRETARY BLINKEN: Well, Mr. President, thank you very much. It’s always so good to be with you, to get your insight, to get your perspective. And I look forward to the conversation that we’re about to have. We had a series of important meetings today with Prime Minister Netanyahu, with Defense Minister Galant, Chief of Staff Halevi. And as the President just said, I had the opportunity again to meet with the families of our hostages, and each and every time, it only reinforces what so many families in the United States and Israel and other countries have to live with every single day with their loved ones held in captivity.
I believe very much that the death of Sinwar does create an important opportunity to bring the hostages home, to bring the war to an end, and to ensure Israel’s security – and that’s exactly what our conversations today focused on with our Israeli colleagues, including arrangements for the period following the end of the conflict. It’s a conversation that I’ll pursue in the region with other partners.
But as the President said, this is – and we have to make sure that this is – a moment of opportunity to move forward, and that’s the focus of all the conversations we’re having here. We’ll have an opportunity, I think, to speak more tomorrow at some point as well as throughout the rest of this trip.
Thanks, everyone.

state.gov/secretary-anto…

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