Interesting preprint, but it has issues.

1. They added in a control group during their revision, but there's relatively little information about them; they barely get mentioned in the paper.

2. The "control group" isn't actually "people who've never been infected" - it's...
"people who were invited because they got a negative result at the time the other subjects got a positive result". It's unclear if anything was done to ascertain a lack of infection beyond this (possible question on the questionnaire?). There is no discussion of serology.
3. Most single-dose individuals were infected than vaccinated, while most two-dose individuals were vaccinated then infected. A poor showing for single-dose individuals mainly just implies that "vaccination doesn't cure Long COVID", and doesn't say much about prevention.
4. The double vaccinated cohort is older than unvaccinated, with 1/3rd over age 60, vs. 11% unvaccinated and 17,6% single-vaccinated. Long COVID is more common in the young. It's also slightly more male (Long COVID is more common in women).
5. A hospitalization rate among double vaccinated only slightly below that of the unvaccinated (7,1% vs. 9,1%) in the pre-Omicron era, when hospitalization protection should have been an order of magnitude greater among the double-vaccinated, also emphasizes the demographic...
differences between groups.

6. The double vaccinated group was infected much later than the single- and unvaccinated groups (median= 114,5d vs. 348d and 246,5d, respectively) , and thus likely faced different strains.

7. While they surveyed many symptoms, they only report...
them for unvaccinated, single vaccinated, and double vaccinated - again, the addition of a control group feels like an afterthought.

8. They do a regression analysis only for the "most common symptoms". No! This is a common mistake. "Common symptoms" that are *common in the...
general public as well* lead to the results getting washed out by background noise. The focus should be on symptoms that are *rare in the general public* but common post-COVID.

9. The study finds that Long COVID symptoms tend to be confined to the elderly - contradicting most..
studies.

Altogether, an interesting preprint, but with some problems, and at the very least needing a lot of rework before publishing (at least with respect to the seemingly hastily-added control group, of which almost nothing is known, yet on which the conclusions hinge).

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More from @enn_nafnlaus

Jan 18,
@TeslaStars Demonstrably, his claims aren't true, given the overloaded hospitals all over the world. But to be more specific.

1) His first *preprint* actually says that there's 95% odds that the risk of death is "1% to 81% as high as Delta" (Delta being ~2x that of Alpha) Image
@TeslaStars Note that that's *unadjusted* hazard ratios (single-factor), and that the adjusted hazard ratios (which they didn't even bother trying for for mortality, given the huge CIs) trend to higher hazard ratios than the unadjusted.
@TeslaStars 2) Paxlovid is awesome, but it's also unobtanium, and will continue to be for quite some time. Pfizer hopes to make 120 million treatments (for a planet of 8 billion people) this year, but mainly in the second half. Experts are dubious:
endpts.com/pfizer-says-it…
Read 20 tweets
Jan 13,
Really concerning paper. I really want to know the biological mechanism behind this.

nature.com/articles/s4159…

Summary:

(a) COVID patients (community-enrolled), whether with Long COVID (LC) or not (MC), have dramatically elevated interferon levels persisting 4 months after...
..infection - something not seen in uninfected controls (UHC) or people who caught "cold" coronaviruses (HCoV). As a reminder, interferons are cytokines sound the alarm call to viral infection and form a complex regulatory network of pro- and anti-inflammatory signals. Elevated..
...levels of pro-inflammatory interferons - as observed - promote aggressive T-cell responses; symptoms can range from asymptomatic to feeling ill to serious pathological states.

(b) While in non-Long COVID patients most IFN levels have significantly declined by 8 months, in...
Read 13 tweets
Jan 12,
My "there must be something wrong with this preprint" sense is tingling but it's hard to pinpoint.

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

Summary: sniffer dogs can detect Long COVID patient sweat samples 51,1% of the time with a 0% false positive rate on controls.
Handlers are blinded to the sample locations, so not a Clever Hans effect. There's detail about how patients were sampled but not controls, though one presumes it's the same. I rather suspect unintentional scent marking distinctions, either in handling of samples...
... or in things that Long COVID patients tend to do (or not do) that the general public does not, rather than a dog-detectable odour eminating from their bodies. It's easy to accidentally mark samples with odours that humans cannot detect.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 27, 2021
Thread: Mask Fit Testing

This evening, I decided to put all of my masks to a proper qualitative fit test using a nebulizer, bitrex solution, and improvised hood. From the upper left, counterclockwise:

1. HygoStar MP9017 surgical mask
2. Demetech DT-N95-FH N95 mask (Amazon)
3. Wisent BAU 4837 FFP2 mask (hardware store)
4. 3M Aura 9330+ FFP3 mask (Amazon; used for ~20h)
5. 3M Aura 9320+ FFP2 mask (Amazon; new)
6. 3M Aura 9330+ FFP3 mask (Amazon; new)
7. GVS Elipse SPR 644 P100 unvalved elastomeric respirator (Amazon)
8. 3M 6800 elastomeric full face respirator (valved) with 3M 2135 P3 R particle filters.

Test setup:

A cheap portable nebulizer was purchased on Amazon:

amazon.com/dp/B08FF3TW59?…

While you can test with stevia or saccharin, bitrex is generally considered to be the easiest...
Read 20 tweets
Dec 24, 2021
Interesting preprint on anosmia / dysosmia associated with SARS-CoV-2

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

Summary: In SARS-CoV-2 patients, there's dramatic alteration of gene expression in the olfactory bulb of the brain, yet this doesn't correlate with the virus's presence or absence...
... in the olfactory bulb. Seeking to explain this, they checked for a marker of connectivity of sensory nerve fibres (afferants) called OMP-1, and as controls looked at a marker for olfactory lesions (TH) and general. neural activity (SNAP-25)

Results?
OMP-1 - the connectivity marker - was highly depleted in COVID patients (A) with anosmia, in comparison to non-COVID patients. No difference was seen in the marker for lesions (TH) or neural activity (SNAP-25). It thus appears that the pathology is upstream of the olfactory bulb. Image
Read 10 tweets
Dec 24, 2021
Hey @elonmusk, any way to rollback this horrid UI update? It's destroyed the usability of common controls on the bottom bar. Literally imposdible to have things like defrost and seat heaters as one-click. Is hiding "defrost" even legal? Shouldn't be.
Who designed this thing, and who approved it? All logic is gone. Like, if I swipe my music down off the screen, them swipe back up, it's not the music that comesup, but the giant climate control screen! Is that "intuitive" or "helpful"?
With all the things that vanished from the bottom bar, it's now mostly blank unused space, on the most important part of the screen - even if I fill the custom bar from the limited subset of choices.

What were designers thinking with moving wiper controls so far from the wheel?
Read 5 tweets

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