Thread by @ektrit

UKRAINE

For somebody who knows Theology, History, Finance and Supply Chains for the last 25 years, Ukraine can be easily explained, it's all about Putin's mind.

1/

As engineers say, if you can't simplify it, you can't understand.

Simplification of a situation is very difficult, but it is doable.

Geopolitics is not Biology, geopolitics can be easily simplified to a bullet point sheet.

2/

So, here's the bullet point for Ukraine by #krisonomics:

1) Kievan Rus
2) Military industry
3) Food security
4) Putin's mind.

3/

Kievan Rus

Swedish tribe Rus invaded Kiev in the 9th century.

Swedish saint St. Valdemar (know as St. Vladimir in Slavic lands) Christianized the Rus, now a mix of vikings and local slavs,

4/

In the mind of modern Russians, Kiev has always been russian territory since St. Vladimir the Great, that is until.............Putin lost it to the United States (in Russian mindset).

In Russian mindset, Americans now control Kiev, their Holy Land.

5/

To reiterate, Kiev (or Kyiv as Ukrainians say), is Holy Land for Russians, in the same way that Mecca is holy land for Muslims or Jerusalem for Jews (theologically Christians have no holy land at all, but that's far too much fine theology for the current reality).

6/

So, since 10th century, the only time that Russians had no control of Kiev is.............now, with Vladimir Putin.

Putin knows that, Putin knows he lost the Russian Holy Land.

7/

Military Industry

A large portion of soviet military industry was built in Ukraine.

Current Russian military industry depends hugely from Ukrainian military supply chains.

Western control of Ukraine would mean that Russian military industry would be dependent on the West.

8/

Food Security

Ukraine has quite large arable land and exports lots of food, though itself has no food security, which makes sense for a corrupted former soviet country with oligarchs, nothing unusual.

Control of Ukrainian food supply chain is essential to Russia.

9/

Putin's Mind

Russians are Swedish+Slavs but with a Mongol mindset, due to Mongolic invasion of the middle ages. Moscow itself was established by Mongols.

Historically speaking, Putin is the biggest failure in Russian history.

10/

Russians believe in the power of 1, being Mongolic in mind.

Putin knows he has failed Russia in anything measurable historically.

In Putin's mind right now is his legacy after he dies.

What will he remembered for?

11/

So, regardless of what your atheist academic "specialist" of Russia tells you, Putin is truly thinking of invading Kiev, it is not a game, it's a reality.

He may go for it. And Russians largely will support him for that, if he goes for it.

12/

In 2019, the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople, Bartholomew, granted Autocephaly to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine.

This was the final straw that broke the camel's back for Putin.

13/

In Ethno-Orthodox mindset, Autocephalous Church = True Separate Nation.

For as long as Ukrainians didn't have an ethnic church, they were not truly a separate nation, as Moscow Patriarchate controlled Ukraine.

14/

In order to counter the Russian Third Rome theology which seeks to replace Constantinople as the Ecumenical Patriarchate, claiming Moscow is now the true Ecumenical Patriarchate, Bartholomew granted autocephaly to Church of Ukraine, hence now the Ukrainian nation exists.

15/

So, What will Putin do?

We shall see in March/April 2022.

Ukraine has been armed by the West, but no Western soldier will die for Ukraine.

We shall find out if Ukrainians want to die for their country, quite likely soon.

16/END

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