Thread by @PalmerReport

Trump is trying to walk a tightrope of keeping the door open for 2024 so the media will keep hyping it, so he can keep raking in money and pocketing it, while also putting enough excuses out there so no one will be shocked when he doesn’t run. Now he’s doing it again.

Trump and his people have leaked that he’ll only run in 2024 if Biden’s approval rating is 45% or lower. Biden’s average is at 43% and climbing, so Trump is laying the groundwork for not running. But because the media is pretending by Biden is in the 30s, it’ll keep hyping Trump.

It’s actually pretty clever on Trump’s part (something I rarely say). He’s giving the media a narrative about how Biden will be “doomed” by a Trump 2024 run unless he gets his “dismal” approval up into the mid forties (nevermind that it’s already in the mid forties).

This is all so Trump can keep up the illusion that he’ll be a 2024 candidate, rake in quasi-campaign donations, spend it all on his legal bills and personal expenses, and then have enough excuses in place so his base doesn’t think to ask for its money back when he doesn’t run.

The media keeps hyping the “massive $100 million war chest” he’s fundraising for 2024. Anything to scare us into staying tuned in.

But for one thing, $100 million is not a lot of money in modern politics. And Trump has probably blown it all on personal expenses already.

The real kicker is that Trump is basically admitting that Biden is very likely going to run for re-election, and that Biden has a strong chance of winning if he does.

As opposed to fictional media hype about Biden being “toast” and which democrat is going to replace him in 2024.

Then again, back when the media was spending the early 2020 primary pretending Biden was toast, when it was demographically clear that he’d clean up in South Carolina on Super Tuesday, Trump was focused Biden and knew he’d be the democratic nominee.

There’s always a stunning gap between 1) what politicians and political experts (on both sides) know is really happening, and 2) what the political media is pretending is happening while chasing ratings.

Politicians have to work the media’s penchant for fiction accordingly.

The media is pretending that Biden probably won’t run in 2024 and Trump definitely will.

But even Trump is basically admitting that he’s unlikely to run in 2024, and that Biden will likely run and win.

Yes, the media is somehow even more dishonest about this than Donald Trump!

But hey, this is the same media that always chases ratings by pretending Iowa and New Hampshire are going to tell us who the presidential nominees will be, when Iowa and New Hampshire never determine the nominees. Then the media paints Super Tuesday as shocking breaking news!

Political media, left right and center, is largely just ratings driven fiction. Their predictions are based on what’ll keep you tuned in, not on what’s realistic, which is why their predictions are nearly always wrong. And then you’re too relieved to realize you’ve been played.

If you’re looking for something to fret over, it’s this: even as far as Trump has slipped cognitively, he still appears to understand that political media is fictional, and that politicians get ahead by figuring out how to steer those fictional narratives in a certain direction.

Given this new revelation that Trump knows he’s not running in 2024 and therefore isn’t falling for the media hype about it, but is instead trying to manage and profit off the media hype about it, it means he knows he won’t ever be facing off against Ron DeSantis.

This in turn suggests Trump is “feuding” with DeSantis solely to try to keep up the illusion he’s running in 2024. So all the damage Trump is doing to DeSantis right now, isn’t even because he needs DeSantis out of the way. It’s just so he can keep up the illusion he’s running.

Trump is going to leave DeSantis battered and weakened, just because Trump currently needs a “2024 rival” to keep up appearances and keep the money coming in. Trump doesn’t care how much he harms DeSantis, because loyalty is a one way street for him. Some “friend.”

DeSantis, who has a political IQ of zero and lucked into his current job and is trying very hard to fumble it away, has got to be wondering how he now has the bad luck of being on Trump’s bad side. But when ambitious idiots rely solely on luck, it turns against them eventually,

We all wish the political media would just be honest. But since it’s not willing to do that, at least the fictional narrative it’s picked – Trump vs DeSantis 2024 – has the benefit of causing them to sabotage each other. At this rate DeSantis is in real danger in Florida in 2022.

DeSantis won by a tiny margin in Florida in 2018. He was always going to have a difficult time in 2022. Now Trump is attacking him, and he’s having to attack Trump in return. DeSantis can’t win without Trump’s base. Democrats like Nikki Fried and Charlie Crist must be thrilled.

Of course this means MORE work for us. Instead of lazily giving up on Florida in 2022, we have a realistic chance of winning, so we’ll have to put in the voter outreach work and earn it. Even as the media spends the whole time pretending DeSantis’ reelection is inevitable.

But this is the same political media that spent the 2020 general election trying to scare you into believing Trump was going to win no matter what, when the numbers made clear the entire time that Biden had at least a 90% chance of winning. You can’t let yourself fall for it.

If you let the media convince you that you’re going to lose no matter what, you won’t put in the basic work required to win. This ratings-induced apathy, where the media wants you to think you’re doomed so you’ll just stare at the screen, is arguably the biggest threat we face.