Angel one π concall was today. Some key takeaways from Q3Fy22 results:
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1. Conventional wisdom goes that broking industry volumes drop off the cliff during bear markets. Angel data reveals that while volumes do decline, this is generally a temporary phenomenon.
This is NOT to say that broking is not cyclical (it is), but the cyclicality might not be as bad as we think it is. Do note that this data includes cash segment volumes from which brokers dont earn anything so take it with a pinch of salt.
2. ARPU for angel is going down. Is this something to worry about? We found out in today's concall.
What the management told us that it isn't. Why? Yes the new users (Tier 2/3 towns) are not as remunerative as the older ones (Tier 1). But why is this something NOT to worry about??
Because what we got to know in today's concall is that eveen though ARPU is lower, the acquisition cost & opex for these customers is even lower which is why they are able to grow maintaining cost to income ratio, improving margins.
These customers spend less, but are also less disproportionately less expensive to acquire resulting in margin expansion.
3. The super app is ready & under beta testing. Will be rolled out in April-22. Will focus on user journeys. Machine learning has already resulted in better client activation (37% to 39% improvement).
This is expected to improve even more with the superapp. The super app will also enable angel to focus a lot more on different user journeys like mutual funds, insurance, broking, lending etc & thus evolve from being a pureplay broker.
4. The distribution income is now 2% of revenues. this used to be 1% some quarters ago. All of this flows directly to bottomline & expands margins. This should improve markedly after launch of new user journeys on super app.
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Hope you enjoyed learning about angel. Journey to superapp looks to be going well.
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My key takeaways: 1. Margin compression in this quarter was a perfect storm.
In b/w the lines: transportation costs went up 2.5% of sales, power costs went up 2% of sales. SDA sales were muted due to semicon shortage.
Despite all of this the operating margin was 23%. Towards lower end of their 23-27% guidance. Semicon shortage expected to ease from may. So sda sales should pick up in Q1fy23. q4 will be muted as well. Gross margins have expanded to 57% from 55% last quarter.
2. Super capacitor Electrolyte salt sales are now 2% of the product mix.
In b/w lines: The conservative guidance is of 5-7% of sales mix 4 years from now. The upside is absolutely huge though. These super capacitors are needed to store solar & wind energy. The upside is massive
Nope, its pitti. π€£π€£ And it is still undervalued imo.
A thread to understand whether pitti deserves our pity or our interest.
Plz retweet if you find it useful. ππ
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Let's dive right into the belly of the beast.
We cover the analysis in 7 sections: 1. Products 2. Industry Analysis 3. Durable Competitive Advantages 4. Growth Triggers 5. Profitability Triggers 6. Valuation 7. Anti thesis 8. What am I doing?
1. Products
Before we understand pittiβs products let us understand the user facing product they go into. Do you know how Electricity is generated at a Hydro power project? Its a turbine.
One of my key learning with yes bank was that if the corporate governance or regulatory compliance is worsening (or perceived to be worsening) it's better for the small investor to get out, evaluate, then decide.
Not investment advice but I would have sold RBL, HGS, Hikal.0
Unless you have the md or ceo on speed dial, it's very hard for you to know what is going on
If you're right in selling you save 80%.
If you're wrong you lose 20% but live to fight another day.
The ONLY exception I would add is if you have 96% confidence that the event is a non issue.
A very seasoned investor I know of didn't sell RBL because he had done very deep research & is convinced it's a non issue. ππ
Agar itna research kiya toh alag baat hai.
Let us try to understand the possible reason(s) behind recent ferocious price increases. Let us also understand how to analyse a business through innovative means.
Please ReTweet if you find it useful.
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I will structure the deep dive into 5 segments: 1. Industry Trends & Opportunity size 2. Brands/segments 3. Corporate Governance 4. Recent Triggers 5. Scuttlebutt 6. Valuation 7. Anti-thesis 8. Thesis/Conclusion
1. Industry Trends
Mirza international is in the business of building consumer brands for Shoes & Related Athleisure clothes (sports wear, sweat shorts & the likes). Imagine it to be like a middle or low income personβs Nike.
Disc: valuations are now discounting lot of the future. I will be very selective in deploying new capital to this position. For sake of portfolio balancing.