Thread by @KellerZoe

How smart was Cummings' latest move? He may have overplayed his hand in thinking he can force Tory MPs to dance at his tune.
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/…

For a man caricatured as an evil genius, there is a distinct lack of genius in Cummings’s evil plan to get rid of the PM. As MPs congregated in Parliament on Tuesday, there was a growing consensus that Cummings, pushing Boris to the brink, may now have overplayed his hand.

His zealous offer to testify on oath that the PM ignored warnings about drinks in No 10 was meant to be a coup de grâce. Instead, it helped shore up the PM’s precarious position: if MPs are forced to choose sides between Cummings and Johnson, there will only ever be one outcome.

Angry as they may be with their leader, virtually no Tory MP, member or voter is likely to trust the word of Cummings — universally loathed over his Barnard Castle trip — and his wanton attempt to get rid of his old boss may well backfire.

“There’s definitely been a shift in the way people are looking at this. Constituents are starting to email me, complaining that Cummings is breaking confidentiality, and there has been a swing of sympathy towards the PM” one former minister said.

“People can see that Cummings is a man who has only one objective in life, and that’s his personal vendetta against the PM. It’s a real turn-off.”

Cummings’s main claim to greatness is that he could read the public mood over Brexit. He is undoubtedly an effective campaigner, but recent evidence suggests his judgment has been clouded by the red mist that descended when he was given his marching orders in November 2020.

His attempts to bring down the PM have been haphazard. He does not appear to know what will resonate with the public and what will fall flat. Cummings has blasted birdshot at the PM for 14 months, before stumbling upon the one piece of evidence that has proved the most damaging.

He leaked details of payments for the Downing Street flat refurbishment, he told MPs Johnson had said he would rather see “bodies pile high” than order another lockdown, and he accused him of treating Covid like swine flu at the start of the pandemic.

It was only when he was trying to defend his own presence at the so-called cheese and wine party in No 10 in May 2020 that he tweeted details of the “socially distanced drinks” party 5 days later – that he said did break lockdown rules.

Even then, mention of the party on May 20 was bundled up with a series of other rants against the Govt and it did not contain the incendiary “bring your own booze” email from Johnson’s principal private secretary that was obtained by ITV News days later.

One veteran Tory backbencher said: “People just see Cummings as being completely untrustworthy. They think he lied over his trip to Barnard Castle to test his eyesight, and people are asking what exactly he was doing to stop all these parties, ...

... given that he was such a major figure in Downing Street at the time. Everything he attended was a works thing and everything he didn’t attend was a party. People can see through him.”

“When Cummings broke lockdown rules and went to Durham, I received a tsunami of emails from people. This has been nothing like that.”

Boris knows that if there is a smoking gun, Cummings was almost certainly there when it was fired and he has no reason to hold back. Unencumbered by loyalty or the need to get a job (family wealth), he is prepared to do what it takes no matter the cost to his own reputation.

Sue Gray will interview Cummings over his claim that the PM was warned the May 20 event would break the rules. Boris has denied this outright, and neither Gray nor anyone else is likely to place more weight on Cummings’s word than that of the PM.

But what if Cummings has held back a piece of evidence to set a trap for his prey? Cummings has said there are “many other photos of parties after I left yet to appear”. Rumours are of a video of the PM at the May 20 event.

If it exists, Cummings or an ally might be waiting for Gray to exonerate the PM – and for him to address the Commons – before releasing evidence that might show he has misled Parliament.

Downing Street made it clear yesterday that Johnson would quit if he was found to have misled Parliament, saying that “the ministerial code is very clear on this point” and that the Prime Minister “abides by that”.

It suggests the PM and his aides are supremely confident that Gray will not conclude that he lied to Parliament and that Cummings does not have evidence to the contrary, nor will there be any substance to his claim that other witnesses will “swear under oath” that the PM lied.

Cummings has a track record of boasting corroborating evidence. When he told MPs about the “bodies pile high” comment, he suggested others would back his version of events – but no one did so on the record.

He claimed to have evidence that Matt Hancock lied repeatedly about Covid policy when he was health secretary, but failed to produce it after his marathon appearance before a select committee.

Similarly, Cummings suggested he and others inside No 10 were plotting to oust Johnson the month (even days) after his landslide general election win of 2019 – but no one has backed up his story.

Could it be that Cummings has overestimated the support he has from those he regards as allies? Or does he simply enjoy tormenting the man who had the temerity to tell him he was no longer needed?

“He is just a fantasist,” said one Tory backbencher. “A lot of people are starting to see this as a witch hunt, and that’s partly because it is all originating from Cummings.”

Meanwhile, Cummings has directly addressed Tory MPs on Twitter, telling them that they must choose a new leader and will harm their chances of re-election if they “delay the inevitable”, adding: “Tick tock…”

Yet, as the MP pointed out, Cummings showed nothing but contempt for Tory backbenchers during his time in Downing Street, refusing to speak to most of them and delighting in telling them: “I don’t know who you are.”

There are signs that the PM’s Cabinet colleagues are irritated by Cummings’s behaviour. Dominic Raab, the Justice Secretary, described the latest claims as “a soap opera”.

Supreme irony: Cummings’s most vocal supporters are now Opposition MPs. Angela Rayner has used social media to promote Cummings’s version of events, SNP Ian Blackford said that Gray’s report will be “not worth the paper it is written on” if Cummings is not interviewed.

Last year, Rayner said she “didn’t believe a word” that came out of Cummings’s mouth, while Blackford said there was “nothing about Mr Cummings that is exceptional except his complete inability to realise he broke the rules”.

Cummings has told friends he will not stop until Johnson is gone. For now, however, the curtain has been pulled back on Dom, the Great and Powerful – and his reputation as a political savant might never recover.