Thread by @EzraKahan

I would need help understating how @Sante_qc is calculating the risk of the unvaccinated getting hospitalized compared to those double vaccinated.

For example in their chart Today they have it at "5,7" my calculation gets me to "1,94"

And I will explain how I get to that. 1/

https://twitter.com/sante_qc/status/1483857039164116993

Looking at the hospitalizations of Today:
We have 92 unvaccinated and 251 double vaccinated

In the population we have 1,269,562 unvaccinated and 6,710,828 double vaccinated

That means that for every 100k of the unvaccinated population we have ~7 hospitalized

2/

compared to ~4 for every 100k double vaccinated.

Now 7 / 4 = 1.75 (rounded)

What am I missing ?

P.s. same calculation for 28 day hospitalizations got me "2.02" still very far from "5.7"

3/

In the footer they write (free translation):

"The risk compared to a two-dose vaccine recipient is calculated from the incidence rates adjusted according to from the last 28 days of data. >>

4/

<< This calculation includes only the ages targeted by the vaccination campaign and therefore excludes individuals individuals aged 4 years and under. Methodology by the INSPQ.

5/

In my above calculations, I did not include the hospitalizations in the 0-4 group, however I did include them in my calculation of the population.

According to statistique.quebec.ca/en/produit/tab… the population in the 0-4 group is "421,670"

6/

So if we deduct that from our total unvaccinated group (1,269,562 - 421,670) We get to 847,892

This brings our unvaccinated hospitalizations per 100k to ~11

Now 11 / 4 = 2.75 still a far cry from "5,7"

7/

The above was calculated based on today's hospitalization count, now let's do the same for the past 28 days

We have had 1,824 unvax'd hosp's and 4,775 double vax'd

Per 100k we had 215 for unvax'd and 71 for 2x vax'd

215 / 71 = 3.02 still very far from "5,7"

8/

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