2/ I was clear in my tweets that if inflation was simply being used as an impetus to support the Biden competition policy agenda, much of which I support, I had no objection.
3/ Paul invokes Kennedy’s attack on steel executives. That rhetoric was very strong. So were the legal tactics used by his brother’s Justice Dept. Most historians regard Kennedy’s victory as pyrrhic.
4/ I am concerned that when an Administration places dominant emphasis on the full employment part of the Fed’s mandate, attributes inflation to factors other than excess demand and...
5/ endorses antitrust theories that celebrate protecting competitors (rather than lowering prices for consumers) it undermines the credibility of anti-inflation efforts.
6/ My concerns are greatly magnified by @FTC Chair @linakhanFTC's disturbing statement yesterday on merger guidelines.
7/ Themes around protecting small business competitors, resisting layoffs for efficiency, combatting roll ups, along with the total failure to recognize that mergers can increase efficiency, suggest that her idea of antitrust policy could easily raise prices.
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The emerging claim that antitrust can combat inflation reflects “science denial”. There are many areas like transitory inflation where serious economists differ. Antitrust as an anti-inflation strategy is not one of them.
I hope the Admin is simply using inflation as a way of adding urgency to the promotion of competition. That is a possible reading of this important @nytimes@jimtankersley@arappeport article. I strongly support much of the Admin’s competition agenda.
Judged purely in terms of economic impacts, the Administration’s decision to extend student loan moratorium is highly problematic.
At a time when unemployment is unusually low and household balance sheets are very strong for all income quintiles, there is no special case for across the board relief now, unlike when it was put in place two years ago.
The Admin understood this when it made clear the last round of temporary debt relief would be the final one & not be extended. How much things have changed since the onset of Covid when it was completely explicit that student loan relief would sunset after the previous extension
As with the aftermath of 9/11 or the financial crisis there should be a systematic review of the performance of key agencies after the pandemic arrived.
I suspect it will show that good and dedicated people applying traditional procedures to a totally new context made bad decisions that caused thousands of deaths.
Not surprisingly, I am largely in agreement with his analysis of the current world where secular stagnation has been and likely will again be a principal macro policy challenge.
If the view now priced into markets that the US economy cannot withstand a Fed funds rate as high as 2 percent even with high debt and deficits is right saving absorption/secular stagnation is a major macro challenge.
I cannot understand why so many in Admin & out cling to the idea that inflation is caused by bottlenecks & will soon recede to normal levels. Of course there is uncertainty but the idea that inflation will revert soon to levels anywhere near Fed’s target looks like a long shot.
Nonpartisan BLS CPI report refers to inflation as “broad increases in most sectors…similar to last month.” Inflation is not @ bottlenecks. Less than 10% of index saw inflation below 3% & aside from housing where figures are problematic, the share below 4% is less than quarter.
We have all seen house prices & rents soar. Home prices based on Case Shiller are up 15 to 20%, as are rental prices, as reported by the nation’s largest landlords. If we assume 17% residential inflation, both CPI and core CPI would have exceeded 10 percent last month.
.@JHWeissmann has a thoughtful commentary on my inflation views. He is much more straight up than most of those who misjudged inflation risks earlier this year. I do disagree on a couple of points however.
First, I certainly did not foresee the specifics or full extent of bottlenecks, nor did I foresee that inflation would be running at close to a 10 percent rate during the 4th quarter of 2021.
There has been more bottleneck and transitory inflation than I predicted but my core prediction that the economy would overheat in a way that barring downturn would lead to sustained inflation way above 2 percent has proved out.