Thread by @LHSummers

.@JHWeissmann has a thoughtful commentary on my inflation views. He is much more straight up than most of those who misjudged inflation risks earlier this year. I do disagree on a couple of points however.

slate.com/business/2021/… via @slate

First, I certainly did not foresee the specifics or full extent of bottlenecks, nor did I foresee that inflation would be running at close to a 10 percent rate during the 4th quarter of 2021.

There has been more bottleneck and transitory inflation than I predicted but my core prediction that the economy would overheat in a way that barring downturn would lead to sustained inflation way above 2 percent has proved out.

Second, I don't understand Jordan's enthusiasm for more expansionary monetary policy relative to my views.

I opposed the Yellen rate increases in 2016. We will see how the super loose policy of the last year works out. I’m not sure when else he thinks a looser policy would have been good. Fiscal policy is much the better instrument at the zero lower bound.