On the lower end of the scale, small but very attractive real estate deals can be found for beginners which won't move the needle for HNWIs or institutions.
Yes, at the beginning of your financial journey you're going to have less competence, but you also have less competition.
Just looked at the UK deal with a rental yield of circa 17% (going in CAP), with room for improvement of the following:
Stabilized UYOC (yield on unlevered cost) could be north of 20%!
Additionally, those who are focused on other asset classes fail to comprehend how RE thrives with leverage (and dies with too much of it).
Such deals could easily service two or three turns of mortgage debt and thus increase the net annual returns to well over 40% p.a.
Apart from a few expectations & a whole lot of luck/gambling, there isn't a strategy that could consistently replicate such returns with low levels of risk & volatility.
Of course, no strategy is perfect or without risk. Additionally, as you do well you're forced to move up...
...to larger deals where competition becomes fierce.
Here, overvaluations are common & overpaying for an asset often means disappointing future expected returns.
Most GPs in PE & RE have countered that problem by having less skin in the game (or none), and more focus on fees.
The message for LPs and private investors is clear:
You're not a genius despite your optimism bias, so to have consistency in finding great deals, look at sectors that others won't. Too much competition eventually leads to low future returns, so run away from popularity.
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The difficulties in investing are everywhere, by they are compounded by the pressure to performance (fund management, short-term focus, benchmarking, etc).
The most wonderful thing about being a private investor is having a choice not to participate in those games.
Additionally, with age and experience, one begins to understand just how much of an advantage long term investment horizon offers.
Long-termism is a strategy of sacrificing immediate results, often those fund managers are chasing by next quarter, in favor of far-reaching ones.
The last piece of advice I’ve taken onboard is that the game of private investing — the one without short-termism — is a game of “no called strikes”.
Unlike many other people on Twitter, I’m open to admit just how wrong I have been on so, so many financial “calls” over the…
It’s been great to take a month off from social media & completely disconnect.
Additionally, while disconnecting I also ran an experiment of meditating at least 60 mins per day for a whole month.
Did anything change while I removed social media and looked inwards?
It seems to be having a profound effect on the following:
• personal calmness (& lots of smiling)
• sleep quality (long time since I spelt more than 8 hrs)
• daily awareness
• reduction in anxiety (social media has an awful impact here)
• cognitive clarity (no brain fog)
• reduced decision fatigue (and increase in decision speed)
• improved memory (and ability to recall & retrieve more facts, events, data points, etc)
• consistency of focus during deep work sessions
• desire to read more long format work (books, white papers, etc)
You buy a stock at $30 or a piece of property for $300k.
The stock goes down to $26.5 or your property trades at $265k so you remind yourself next time to be more patient.
Next time comes around, and you wait for prices to fall further, but they never do.
Opportunity missed.
This time, you remind yourself that you should not wait so long again, because too much patience has its price.
Eventually, another correction in asset prices comes around. Instead of patiently waiting too long, you decide after a certain point, it's time to buy.
But prices...
...keep sinking lower & lower after your purchase.
And then, a correction turns into a full-blown crash!
Prices decline so much further than you ever envisioned —not that you did any case scenario analysis anyway (because it's easier to act on hot trends & recent tips).
Real estate is one of the least volatile and probably safest asset classes.
It is incredibly hard to have a permanent loss of capital — until you add leverage.
Because it is deemed safe, certain countries even allow players to over-leverage and…
…allow cross collateralization loans. This creates very high probability something will break eventually (fragility) as it did in 1990 & 2008.
It is a classic Peltzman Effect in play, where people engage in high-risk behaviours because it’s deemed that the underlying is safe.
Ironically, the risks don’t happen very often which create a feedback loop of poor decisions and over-leveraging.
Positive outcomes without evidence to the contrary encourage even more risk taking, until the final judgement day (downturns happen every 12-15 years: 1990 & 2008).
When it comes to investing, I focus on several things (not too many, but not only one) and I try to do them with great effort.
Some would say that is playing the game of a specialised generalist.
“Specialisation is for insects.”
— Robert A. Heinlein
Why do I like specialising in a few areas over concentrating in just one?
You want to have optionality & diversification for long term survival.
It is important to be diversified incase your industry blows up like tech in 2000, banking in 2008, mining in 2012 or energy in 2020.
Here is a quick list of several asset class often found in our portfolios:
• public stocks & ETFs
• RE multifamily value adds
• luxury residential real estate
• RE development financing
• litigation funding
• alternative funds (PE, VC, private credit, hedge funds, etc)
"Pity the poor saps who piled into shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. when it was a $750 billion behemoth and the sky still appeared to be the limit."
The decision-making question of when to pull the trigger — also known as timing — is one of the most important investing skills.
What has helped me is deliberate patience, preserving optionality, understanding the history of business cycles & behavioral economics (sentiment).
With benefit of hindsight, it looks far wiser to have waited on buying $BABA with an average entry in $140s (my current position) vs someone holding at $200 or even $250.
Patience: waiting for the opportunity to come to you (price & valuation) instead of you chasing it.