Tiho Brkan Profile picture
Jan 18 6 tweets 2 min read
It’s been great to take a month off from social media & completely disconnect.

Additionally, while disconnecting I also ran an experiment of meditating at least 60 mins per day for a whole month.

Did anything change while I removed social media and looked inwards?
It seems to be having a profound effect on the following:

• personal calmness (& lots of smiling)
• sleep quality (long time since I spelt more than 8 hrs)
• daily awareness
• reduction in anxiety (social media has an awful impact here)
• cognitive clarity (no brain fog)
• reduced decision fatigue (and increase in decision speed)
• improved memory (and ability to recall & retrieve more facts, events, data points, etc)
• consistency of focus during deep work sessions
• desire to read more long format work (books, white papers, etc)
I’ve meditated over the years for 10 mins/day, but never 1 hour+ in a single session & stayed disciplined on the daily basis.

And I never coupled it with a social media cold turkey. This is one of the highest leverage activities I’ve done for my well being & personal health.
While social media has benefits, it is becoming more & more clear that our hunter-gathering, ancient lizard brains, are just not going to behave in a healthy manner in such environments for long periods of time.

It’s unhealthy.

And since I’m not selling any courses…
…newsletters, or attempting to raise capital for a next syndication & earn fees from my follower base,

The natural thing to do, in 2022 and beyond, is to take a lot more social media breaks.

Of course, no one should act based on anecdotal evidence with a sample size of one.

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More from @TihoBrkan

Dec 21, 2021
You buy a stock at $30 or a piece of property for $300k.

The stock goes down to $26.5 or your property trades at $265k so you remind yourself next time to be more patient.

Next time comes around, and you wait for prices to fall further, but they never do.

Opportunity missed.
This time, you remind yourself that you should not wait so long again, because too much patience has its price.

Eventually, another correction in asset prices comes around. Instead of patiently waiting too long, you decide after a certain point, it's time to buy.

But prices...
...keep sinking lower & lower after your purchase.

And then, a correction turns into a full-blown crash!

Prices decline so much further than you ever envisioned —not that you did any case scenario analysis anyway (because it's easier to act on hot trends & recent tips).
Read 7 tweets
Dec 15, 2021
On real estate risks.

Real estate is one of the least volatile and probably safest asset classes.

It is incredibly hard to have a permanent loss of capital — until you add leverage.

Because it is deemed safe, certain countries even allow players to over-leverage and…
…allow cross collateralization loans. This creates very high probability something will break eventually (fragility) as it did in 1990 & 2008.

It is a classic Peltzman Effect in play, where people engage in high-risk behaviours because it’s deemed that the underlying is safe.
Ironically, the risks don’t happen very often which create a feedback loop of poor decisions and over-leveraging.

Positive outcomes without evidence to the contrary encourage even more risk taking, until the final judgement day (downturns happen every 12-15 years: 1990 & 2008).
Read 6 tweets
Dec 7, 2021
When it comes to investing, I focus on several things (not too many, but not only one) and I try to do them with great effort.

Some would say that is playing the game of a specialised generalist.

“Specialisation is for insects.”

— Robert A. Heinlein
Why do I like specialising in a few areas over concentrating in just one?

You want to have optionality & diversification for long term survival.

It is important to be diversified incase your industry blows up like tech in 2000, banking in 2008, mining in 2012 or energy in 2020.
Here is a quick list of several asset class often found in our portfolios:

• public stocks & ETFs
• RE multifamily value adds
• luxury residential real estate
• RE development financing
• litigation funding
• alternative funds (PE, VC, private credit, hedge funds, etc)
Read 4 tweets
Nov 28, 2021
Great article to read.

"Pity the poor saps who piled into shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. when it was a $750 billion behemoth and the sky still appeared to be the limit."

washingtonpost.com/business/aliba…
The decision-making question of when to pull the trigger — also known as timing — is one of the most important investing skills.

What has helped me is deliberate patience, preserving optionality, understanding the history of business cycles & behavioral economics (sentiment).
With benefit of hindsight, it looks far wiser to have waited on buying $BABA with an average entry in $140s (my current position) vs someone holding at $200 or even $250.

Patience: waiting for the opportunity to come to you (price & valuation) instead of you chasing it. Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 17, 2021
There is no housing crisis — it’s a false narrative.

Shortages are a temporary problem created by artificial monetary policy not witnessed in centuries.

When the cheap money punch bowl is taken away, demand will collapse.

Oversupply will remain — the mortal enemy of price.
Such false narratives are common near the peak of every great price run-up and bubble throughout history.

Don’t look for real estate specialists to justify fundamentals. They often suffer from a confirmation bias & availability bias within their echo chamber.
When opposite evidence is presented — often by outsiders who aren’t part of the tribe — is swiftly rejected.

Semmelweis reflex is a metaphor for a reflex-like tendency to reject new evidence, knowledge, or well thought out opinions because it contradicts established norms.
Read 9 tweets
Nov 10, 2021
Apple iPad in 1992 was called Apple Newton. It failed as the timing was wrong, despite being a fantastic idea.

In similar fashion, asset allocators and private investors need to think way more about timing, and focus way less on narratives and “fundamental reasoning.” Image
Simplified example: “ABC is a great investment.”

Real estate was a great investment in 2012, but an awful one in 2006.

Gold was a great investment in 2001, but an awful one in 2011.

Tech stocks were a great investment in 1990, but an awful one in 2000.

Timing really matters.
How many consensus ideas and popular investment opportunities today will turn out to be money losing propositions over the next 5 to 10 years?

And how many depressed, disliked and under-owned investments today, will turn out to be home run winners in by the end of 2020s?
Read 4 tweets

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