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Kris Van Steenbergen

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Jan 20 • 4 tweets • 3 min read

@EU_Commission

Please keep an eye on Wiese Island.

Sudden bursts of methane (Initiate date: 20th of January).
It seems to be a +1 to +3 Mt/day event!!!!

atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/cams/me…

@EU_Commission

Concentrations at 850 hPa are also climbing beyond 2100 ppb very rapidly & very easily right above the island.

Just run the model a couple of time.
You'll notice.

These first raw images show violent sea ice ruptures near the island.

It all started 3 years ago near Komsomolets Island (& near the Schmidt Ice Cap).
The West Siberian Arctic Shelf is getting warmer way too fast at depths between 20 & 160 meters!

---> +4°C in only 5 years!!!!

polar.ncep.noaa.gov/global/nc/?-ar…

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Kris Van Steenbergen

@KrVaSt

Dec 11, 2021

Sea level rise is about to hit a rate of 2.5 mm a month (proof is coming soon).
96% caused by basal melting below both ice sheets:
4°-6°C warmer at 100m!
Antarctic surface melt is only responsible for 2% of SLR.
Oceans are increasing their contribution (thermal expansion)!

#AR7

Basal melting:

Warmer & saltier ocean water flowing through channels, fjords, troughs & subglacial lakes is responsible for the rapid warm-up of the Antarctic ice sheet (lower part).

Surface melt:

Draining of supraglacial lakes is causing a destabilization of the upper part.

Pine Island glacier & Thwaites glacier are facing a rapid warm-up & a rapid salinization of the entire water column in front of their calving field.
Also Cook, Ninnis, Mertz, Frost, Totten, Vanderford, Scott & Denman glacier are facing extreme warm underflows (& Amery Ice Shelf).

Read 8 tweets

Kris Van Steenbergen

@KrVaSt

Nov 22, 2020

To clear up all misunderstandings...

The Arctic is warming 2-3 times faster than global average if you look at 60N-90N (Arctic Ocean with neighbouring seas)
The Arctic is warming 6-8 times faster than global average if you look at 75N-90N (Arctic Ocean without neighbouring seas)

When you look at 85N-90N (the pure Arctic) we have to admit the entire zone of the Arctic basin is warming +12 times faster than global average!

And we now know these conditions are comparable to the Mid-Pliocene Arctic conditions.

Only global mean temperatures were a little higher: 2°C to 3°C above pre-industrial levels.
But we also know these temperatures are potentially already in our climate system: ice sheet instability, deep-ocean warming, irreversible retreat of marine glacier, SST's & trapped GHG's.

Read 4 tweets

Kris Van Steenbergen

@KrVaSt

Oct 11, 2019

It doesn't matter how long it has been that earth saw these kind of CO2 concentrations in her atmosphere.

115k, 3M, 20M, 34M, 56M or 200M years ago?

More important is the rate of increase of CO2 in the atmosphere during the last few decades.
Biggest rate in about 420M years!

Because methane is getting the main contributor to global warming, it doesn't matter which GWP factors (100-year factors, 20-year factors or 10-year factor) we use to calculate the total CO2 equivalent of the main GHG's (N2O, CH4 & CO2 itself).

CO2e (N2O+CH4+CO2):
100-yr GWP: 584 ppm (99+65+420)
20-yr GWP: 674 ppm (89+165+420)
10-yr GWP: 710 ppm (83+207+420)

Read 7 tweets

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