Thread by @wolfejosh

1/ There are a few ‘megamacro’ trends that really matter

-Hard power (aerospace + defense *see below*) v China
-Soft power (US culture + tools for ‘Tech of Science’) v China
-Money + “low entropy” currency (USD x Fed x crypto)
-Africa, MENA, SE Asia EM
spacenews.com/chinese-satell…

2/ Climate matters alot—though climate does not have the human-generated conflict of interests

(unless world shames China for coal; and is easily solved with doubling world’s nuclear power—only cost is the loss of “environmentalists” egos + pride from their orthodoxy)

But more—

3/ More important than climate🤭—a 100yr problem that will be solved in next 50yrs (not by swapping light bulbs or neg. growth but via nuclear + electrification)

—Is cancer, heart disease, alzheimers, infectious disease (globally)= 5 + 10yr problems needing solutions now

4/ our disunity in the US is helpful in the SHORT-TERM as it surfaces grievances both from & between

generations
minorities x majorities
in-groups x out-groups
those holding power + influence; losing it; seeking to gain it

and counterproductive to LONG-TERM interests

5/ LONG-TERM interests are ensuring UNPREDICTABLE hi-entropy freedom of expression + criticism, creativity, entrepreneurial risk-taking + scientific discovery can be unleashed to reduce human suffering

Upon a PREDICTABLE low-entropy foundation of markets + institutions + rules

6/ Otherwise short-term gains by any one tribe that cause long-term instability will be exploited by foreign foes with values far worse than ours

Cycles of competition + cooperation are a CONSTANT from biology thru societies thru cities + beyond

my favorite visual (from 2004!)