1) On the day Quebec registered 98 new #COVID deaths — the highest since May 2020 — Premier François Legault appeared more interested in talking about the concept of excess deaths (surmortalité) while citing figures from last September. Why did he do this?
2) Before I return to the topic of surmortalité, I would like to draw your attention to what is now going on in the #pandemic in Quebec and the fact that this latest wave of deaths is poised to surpass the one last January. Please see the chart below. 
3) The current mortality wave in Quebec looks to have started on Jan. 10. Quebec is compiling #COVID deaths the same way it has since the start of the #pandemic. Thus, the chart from last January (please see below) suggests the current wave is deadlier.
4) What does this mean? What does it say about Omicron, Quebec’s health-care system and the potential direction of the #pandemic? Instead, Dr. Luc Boileau, the new director of public health, preferred to discuss the finer points between deaths from #COVID and deaths with #COVID.
5) Why couldn’t the Premier and Dr. Boileau discuss Quebec’s current wave of deaths using the methodology Quebec has always used? Instead, they both seemed to shift attention from the current crisis by mentioning Ontario. Why did they do this?
6) Coincidentally, on the same day Legault spoke at length about surmortalité, the Institut de la statistique du Québec released a report on the subject, recycling one made public last December. statistique.quebec.ca/en/document/la…
7) The institute produced a fascinating chart comparing excess mortality in Quebec during the #pandemic with the rest of Canada (ROC), the United States and even four regions within the U.S. (but not other Canadian provinces). Please take a look at it below.
8) Upon closer inspection, you will note that the orange line of excess mortality in the rest of Canada was trending downward by the end of last September, while Quebec’s blue line was trending upward. We will only know true excess mortality in the ROC in the coming months.
9) Perhaps Legault will be proved right when he predicted excess deaths — that is, all deaths in the #pandemic over and above the averages in years past — will be higher in the ROC than in Quebec. But was he right to dwell on this at the expense of 98 deaths declared Thursday?
10) Now let us turn to the provincial and international comparisons compiled by the Institut de la santé publique du Québec. The latest INSPQ charts would appear to show that the number of #COVID deaths is accelerating faster here than elsewhere. Please see the chart below.
11) All things being equal — that is to say, each province has not changed its methodology in compiling deaths in the last few weeks — Quebec’s #COVID mortality rate appears to be pulling ahead of the rest of Canada. Again, please see the same INSPQ chart below.
12) Science is about making comparisons. Public-health institutes around the world are making similar ones about #pandemic mortality. An INSPQ source told me tonight that thought had been given to ditching such comparisons, but they will continue being published. See below.
13) The INSPQ comparisons might very well be flawed. But they are the next best thing to guiding authorities during this treacherous moment in the #pandemic. We owe it to the 12,639 souls who have perished from #COVID to date in Quebec. End of thread. Please stay safe, everyone.
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