CATCHING UP WITH DEATHS
In Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, and a few more countries, fewer people died during the pandemic than during the average year.
If / once they re-open borders, will deaths “catch up”? Did they only delay the inevitable?
thread 1/7
In Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, and a few more countries, fewer people died during the pandemic than during the average year.
If / once they re-open borders, will deaths “catch up”? Did they only delay the inevitable?
thread 1/7
First of all, green zones' populations are more vaccinated than Europe was in 2020-2021 and omicron is milder than Delta. This means that, even if the green areas got invaded by the virus in 2022 (say), there would be fewer excess deaths than recorded in Europe in 20-21.
2/7
2/7
Secondly, a major driver of excess mortality is the overwhelming of the healthcare system.
Green zones can modulate their reopening to travelers from abroad, thus having access to a flatter curve than Europe had in 20-21.
3/7
Green zones can modulate their reopening to travelers from abroad, thus having access to a flatter curve than Europe had in 20-21.
3/7
(The above is justified because infected abroad traveler are "seed cases" – and it would be possible for green areas to modulate borders and other restrictions to have fewer seed cases in 2022 than Europe had in 2021 (say))
4/7
4/7
Finally, we've seen in Italy that the hardest-hit regions in the first wave are still the hardest-hit areas in winter 2022. It seems that "virus infrastructure" (geo-socio-demographic factors that help spread) matters more than herd immunity.
5/7
5/7
If the above is correct, green areas are more likely to have lower "virus infrastructure" and thus to be relatively spared by eventual future waves.
6/7
6/7
Did I miss anything?
7/7
7/7
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
