These are the top towns by 2020 excess mortality vs baseline
What happened in 2020 doesn't seem to have affected what happened in 2021 (what herd immunity? what harvest effect?)
Below, the chart for all Italian towns of significant size.
Again, no significant relationship between excess deaths in 2020 and 2021. (In the thread, I only consider towns whose baseline yearly deaths are >100/y)
Also, note that for 16% of Italian towns, excess mortality in 2020 and 2021 have both been lower than baseline (the bottom-left quadrant).
Possibly a sign that lockdowns don't cause excess deaths, the virus does?
Below, the Italian towns with the lowest excess mortality in 2020.
Note how the five towns with lowest excess mortality in 2020 also had negative excess mortality in 2021.
Any herd immunity supporter who can explain why the hardest-hit Italian regions during the first wave still have more cases today *and* higher test positivity rates?
My hypothesis is that we’re still very far from herd immunity thresholds, and the further we are, the more “virus infrastructure” matters over natural immunity
(virus infrastructure = the demographic, cultural, infrastructure, connectivity factors that facilitate spread)
This matters because, if the hypothesis above is correct, the hardest-hit regions will be still hit hard for a long time, much longer than herd immunity supporters tell us.
Losing competitiveness (uptime, business desirability, fiscal solidity) compared to lighter-hit countries
Scenario: yesterday, I got a coffee with one of my best friends.
Here are some of the factors that influenced our risk of catching COVID.
1/N
2/ We decided to go to a small coffee shop, with 6 people inside.
We could have gone to Starbucks (60 clients), but by going to a coffee with 1/10th of the people, we cut our risk in 10, all other things equal.
2B/ (Actually, a bit less, because some of the clients in the Starbucks would have been too far away to infect us with the same likelihood of those around us. So, let's downgrade the risk reduction from 1/10 to 1/5.)
My book "100 Truths You Will Learn Too Late" is currently on a -37% off promotion. The idea is that you buy the book this week and read a chapter a day for the first 3.5 months of 2022.
Below, excerpts of the first few pages (I'll post more tomorrow)
COVID incidence in Italy maps over incidence two years ago.
Suggesting that:
- herd immunity is still very, very far
- infrastructure* drives outcomes much more than we give it credit
(*demographics, how and where they live, connections, etc.)
This map alone suggests that Sweden having had it relatively easy can in no way be interpreted as “if a country with high incidence had done the same, it wouldn’t have had worse results”
If a country with high virus infrastructure & incidence hadn’t had restrictions, catastrophe
Very important: countries that had been hit lightly have everything to gain competitively to drop all measures compared to countries who got hit hard.
If you’re from the US, UK, South- or Eastern Europe, or any other high-mortality country, don’t be fooled.