1/It is possible that Putin has made a fatal mistake. If he does not invade, he will lose face at home and then have to face his own people, internal unrest, and various usurpers.

The only way Putin can level the playing field to “succeed” in this confrontation is hybrid war.
2/This requires tactical surprise, and full activation of his global fifth column, to wage information war and spur localized hot confrontations in the West.

But Western counterintelligence knows who that network is. And they can legally monitor their foreign comms.
3/UK has already shown they are able and willing to get ahead of Putin by spoiling info ops and fifth column operations, in yesterday’s case inside Ukraine. There is a very large, low hanging catalog of players that could be pre-emptively exposed by Western counter-intel.
4/Every day that Putin’s tactical advantage is spoiled and he is made to seem foolish by having his intentions and next moves exposed is a day closer to the eventual collapse of his doomed regime. Keep this up Vova. There is plenty more of your 5th column to expose and dismantle.
5/And if the west exposes his 5th column fully, there is simply no way he can prevail with his Big Fat Duginist Orthodox Third Rome agenda. The idea that Putin has any upper hand here is, I think, false. Keep it up, buddy; it’s not like we didn’t see what you’ve been doing.

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More from @davetroy

Jan 23
1/Cryptocurrencies are a social phenomenon driven by a few distinct factions of people, and drawing in recruits into what @FoldableHuman correctly calls a “self-organized high control group.” Here is how this works.
2/In the nucleus are the true believers, the people who read “The Sovereign Individual” (1997) and take it as gospel. This is Thiel, Musk, Sacks, Buterin etc and the people who directly orbit them; this network effectively birthed both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
3/Circling them are people who got rich on Web 1.0 and 2.0, and now want to do it again, but this time with fake internet money and “decentralization” schemes. This is the Saylor, Dixon, and the web3 VC opportunist crowd who follow trends. The Ayn Rand stuff is a bonus.
Read 18 tweets
Jan 22
1/While we are facing serious challenges and it seems a lot of things are falling apart, I'd like to offer a few possible reasons for optimism.

Much of what's driving global uncertainty now is being driven by people like Bannon, Dugin, and Putin.
2/Without their agitation (and with the pandemic as a variable we'd possibly have either way) things would be considerably more stable if those people, and the network they've built, did not exist.

So, what are they doing to destabilize the world?
3/They are amplifying division, attacking financial stability, promoting geopolitical realignment, and destabilizing democracies. They are doing this primarily via information warfare seeded via the internet, which ripples throughout the information ecosystem.
Read 19 tweets
Jan 20
WTF are you doing @nytimes promoting this "Russia before communism" White Russian Tsarist nostalgia, tying in with Falun Gong's "China Before Communism" message? Y'all need to be aware this is all one network and being driven, right now, for a reason. Image
Maybe try understanding that this messaging is tied into this bit of nostalgia, which is directly related to current operations and messaging in Kazakhstan and Ukraine. It's Duginism.
npr.org/2021/10/02/104…
And of course the Falun Gong folks are driving their batsh!t dance show globally. Knowing the themes and currents of history is useful for understanding propaganda. AND: communism has produced catastrophic atrocities.

But these networks are trying to destroy *democracies*. ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Jan 14
1/It looks like Russia is systematically eliminating options that would allow them to avoid conflict, and instead is moving in the other direction. Getting signals from multiple sources. Here's some of what I'm hearing.
2/Ukraine has suffered a major cyberattack, apparently by Russia. This would likely immediately precede any hot conflict, in order to weaken the government, stoke fear, and alarm the population. While some suggest this is all sabre-rattling to "extract concessions" it is...
3/unclear what sort of concessions are plausible. Talks have not produced viable proposals. I am hearing reports of what sounds like Russian activity in Berlin. Past experience with Russian involvement in western affairs suggests this would be an expected part of hybrid warfare.
Read 13 tweets
Jan 9
1/The rise of cryptocurrencies and the attacks on democracy are a single phenomenon. They are both attempts to advance a libertarian, individualist worldview. Of the “Austrian school” economists, Hans-Hermann Hoppe may be the most relevant right now.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy…
2/He believes democracy is a failed experiment, and that monarchy is preferable.

Better still is “natural law” and “anarchocapitalism.” This philosophy unites oil barons (Kochs), oligarchs, and anti-vaxxers; it is the basis for Bannon and Thiel’s anti-democracy views.
3/This is the same “natural law” that underlies insane anti-vax cult groups like the “International Tribunal for Natural Justice.” A toxic mix of intelligence operations and cults aiming to end government entirely, and establish a “natural” order. 😬
Read 19 tweets
Jan 7
1/The concept of “folk politics” is a useful one for describing why the left has become ossified and reactionary against the right, and why the right has the upper hand in establishing the Overton window.

designing-history.world/en/theorie/fol…
2/I don’t know that I agree with the entire agenda here, but I do think we need to ground ourselves in first principles, with a firm and unwavering commitment to rule by the demos, and a firm and forceful rejection of libertarian anarchism and its neofeudal aims.
3/Also worth noting that “Marxism” is super dumb and has produced some of the world’s greatest atrocities. Why? Because of how humans behave in groups. No one bothered to consult a sociologist or study the effects of in-group/out-group conflict.
Read 13 tweets

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