I'm glad to discuss Putin's latest aggression and how to stop him. But I said it all in my 2015 book Winter Is Coming. Even by then I was furious the West had done so little. Tragically, it's still valid. publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/garry-k…
I addressed Putin's war on Ukraine as a test for the US and the rest of the free world. As I've been saying since 2007, the longer you wait to deter a dictator, the higher the eventual price. Now a major war is looming.
Instead of running around in a panic at every Putin move, a strategic plan of deterrence by raising the costs of aggression and reducing his leverage should have been implemented in 2008 at the latest, when he invaded Georgia. The mask was off.
Kick Putin's oligarchs and their families out of the free world and seize their assets. They are war criminals. Aid Ukraine & other targets. Reduce dependence on Russian energy, what I called "dictatorship substitution." You don't negotiate with cancer; you cut it out.
Western nations are profiting from and supporting brutal dictatorships that invade neighbors and commit genocide. Today, in 2022, not in the history books. "Never again" is a sick joke. Europe isn't putting its head in the sand, its eyes are wide open.
Most of these arguments about how and why to contain Putin I made in 2015 are heard again now, 8 years after Putin invaded Ukraine. Apparently no amount of Putin's repression & violence is enough to prove that appeasement has failed as it always does.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
We know what they decided, sealing Russia's slide into dictatorship. Even after Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014, even now in 2022 with Germany pressing for Nord Stream 2, with the White House's support. Putin's gas and cash over everything.
The only proof you need that the myth of Russian humiliation by the West is just scapegoating lies is how much money they poured into Putin's pockets. All while welcoming him at the G7, all smiles. Even after he invaded Georgia in 2008.
Putin had every opportunity to improve relations with the free world but he chose conflict abroad and repression at home to solidify personal power, like every dictator. He's been in charge for 21 years; his track record isn't a mystery. Murder, invasion, oppression.
My hit with @SRuhle this morning on these US-Russia meetings, as hostage negotiations. It's completely backwards. The free world should be making the demands of the terrorist Putin, invader Putin. msnbc.com/stephanie-ruhl…
The White House said they have prepared an “overwhelming response” if Putin further invades Ukraine. Why wait? He’s already there, kick him out. He'll keep doing this whenever he needs a distraction otherwise.
The West still acts like they’re dealing with a normal nation in Russia. But while every country has a mafia, in Russia the mafia has its own country. It’s Godfather Putin and his gang, and their personal interests, not Russia's.
There are terms for "expanding influence" by sending tanks across the border. Ask Hungary, ask the Czechs. Tokayev has gone from being Nazarbayev's pet to being Putin's to try save his own skin. The free world looks on with "deep concern" as usual.
Let's hear from Tony Blair, long on Nazarbayev's payroll, and the rest of the Western appeasers taking lobbyist money from dictatorships. They'll probably be quiet for a while now, but should be dragged into the light.
Now Blinken says he's confused why Tokayev invited Russian troops to take over? It's because he didn't trust his own security forces to murder their protesting countrymen efficiently enough. Putin's won't hesitate. They already have experience in Ukraine.
The Kazakhstan regime's answer to the EU's pathetic statement about a peaceful resolution. Body bags and inviting Putin in to help, as he did in Belarus.
Putin is happy to invade another neighbor, of course. To prop up another dictatorship and secure energy deals. Note it's not just neighbors, as he used this model in Syria and Venezuela to support murderous thugs.
An additional disgrace, Pashinyan, the only democratically elected leader in the CSTO, announcing Putin's invasion of Kazakhstan to rescue the dictatorship from its angry citizens.
Statement on Kazakhstan protests a classic example of the EU's feckless collusion with dictatorships. Calling now for "responsibility and restraint" as the oppressed citizens of a dictatorship rise up.
Nonviolence should always be the first way, and sometimes it is the only way. But brutal dictators in power for decades aren't often swayed by peaceful marchers waving ribbons.
Now calling for "all sides to show restraint," where were the EU statements & policies to help the people of Kazakhstan free themselves from repression that is anathema to supposed EU values? Dictatorship is violence. It is illegitimate.
Free world leaders giving dictators the status and attention they crave doesn't deescalate or avoid conflict, but the opposite. Apparently Biden also craves a status boost, but this is also the opposite.
For those who still don't understand, Putin stays in power by keeping the cash flowing & his oligarchs happy. To do this, he needs to be irreplaceable, the big boss. No better way than 1 on 1 talks with the US president.
With no legitimacy via real elections, dictators must rule by force, propaganda, and de facto legitimacy engendered by things like talks with foreign leaders. Denying them these status symbols has real power. It dents their aura of being essential.