Thread by @phl43

I agree that, since Ukraine's accession to NATO is not imminent, it wouldn't make sense for Russia to start a war over it now. 1/n

https://twitter.com/SevaUT/status/1485697921811193865

But the fact is that Russia has *not* started a war over it yet and this line of reasoning is precisely what makes me think that it won't and that it just wants the US to believe that it *might* to force Washington to take its security concerns seriously. 2/n

Insofar as this has forced the US to the negotiation table to discuss those concerns for the first time in a very long time, you could say that it has worked, but what is unclear to me is what concrete advantages Russia is expecting from the process. 3/n

In particular, there is no way the US can agree to the demands made by Moscow on December 17, not so much because they are unreasonable (which they are not in my opinion), but rather because the Biden administration faces severe domestic constraints in dealing with Russia. 4/n

Surely, the Russians understand that, so what exactly are they hoping to get out of this? This is what I don't understand and makes me less confident there won't be a war than before December 17, though I still think there probably won't be. 5/n

Even if there is some kind of military intervention, I certainly regard scenarios in which Russia occupies the whole of Ukraine as fanciful, because the cost would be enormous and I don't see how the Russians could believe it would be worth it for them. 6/n

I know people in the West think Putin is some kind of adventurer bent on world domination, but when you look at how he has governed since he rose to power, I think he's actually been pretty cautious. Still, having said that, I don't understand what he's trying to do here. 7/7