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Jan 25 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Latest CH data (to 14/1 - week 3) show another jump in COVID related deaths, up around 7 fold since early Dec.
We don't have data regarding vax status, nor whether COVID was the underlying cause of death (nor for the next graph).

1/ Image
In comparison, whilst we've seen another jump in all over 70 deaths (to 7/1 - week 2), it's only around double the early Dec figure. This week will still probably have some BH catch-up too.

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To put these two into context, during Dec prevalence of the community Over 70 population rose by around 10 fold. As the 70+s were already boosted by then, the much lower increase in deaths (especially in the community), is consistent with Omicron being less deadly than Delta.

3/ Image
Admittedly, with the peak prevalence only 10 days prior to the end of the ONS infection study period, we've probably not seen all of the increase work through yet into the ONS deaths stats, but I don't expect it to alter the conclusion re Omicron v Delta.

4/
All this to be considered within the overall context of the current broadly neutral excess death position which I cover here.

5/5

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More from @john_actuary

John Roberts Profile picture
Jan 28
Some (very) early evidence that secondary attack rates of BA.2 are higher in household settings than those of its older sibling.

From the latest Variant TB 35.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

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Fortunately there's no evidence yet that BA.2 has a greater propensity for vaccine escape. Indeed, there's a possibility it's slightly less able in that regard, though not statistically robust yet.

2/ Image
You can see BA.2 start to nibble away at BA.1's dominant position here in the bottom right hand corner. Note because of sequencing time, this cuts off around 10 days ago.

3/ Image
Read 4 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
Jan 27
The latest Vaccine Surveillance Report now extends efficacy data out to 15 weeks, and shows a continued fall in booster efficacy against symptomatic disease, particularly where AZ was the primary course (below).
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
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mRNA throughout the course and booster appears a smidge better, particularly where Moderna was used for the booster, (although Moderna data doesn't extend to 15+ weeks yet).

2/ Image
Efficacy against hospitalisation where AZ is the primary course dips to below 80% in the 10-14 week period, against 90% at the outset (ie the efficacy gap has doubled over that period).

3/ Image
Read 7 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
Jan 27
A modest fall this week in the proportion of COVID patients where it is judged the primary diagnosis across England, from 52% to 48%. London continues to lead the way down, lowest, at 36%, with others ranging up to 57%.

1/ Image
In total the number of primary diagnosis patients has fallen 18% to 6,256.

Remember that the notes accompanying these data say that doesn't mean the others are not being treated for COVID, or that it wasn't a factor in their admission.

2/ Image
As an example, COVID is quite likely to have triggered the stroke in a patient admitted who also has COVID, but it is the stroke that is likely to be the primary condition they are being treated for.

3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
Jan 26
The latest #REACT study (Round 17) confirms the rapid growth seen in other studies, tripling between R16 and 17 to 4.4%, the highest seen to date, with Omicron being 98% of samples.

Within R17, there's a clear sign of a fall though, with R put at 0.95, but varying by age.

1/ Image
That age variation can be seen here, with U17s still increasing through the round, whereas adults are showing clear declines.

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Here's the history of these surveys, showing how R17 (5/1 to 20/1) is also around 3 times the rate at the peak of Alpha a year ago (R8). You can see the sample sizes too here if you're interested.

3/ Image
Read 12 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
Jan 26
The latest antibody study from ONS gives info re children for the first time, and we can also see clearly the impact of the booster on adults.

At older ages the higher threshold levels now monitored dropped rapidly before the booster restored them (and more...).

1/ Image
Looking at children, the contrast in antibody levels between the vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts is very apparent.

It's noticeable how little levels have moved despite the Omicron surge, although the cut off date of Jan 3rd may be a little too early to see the effect.

2/ Image
Note the modelled % of those age 12-15 who have been vaxxed is considerably higher than we see in other data, which may be a result of the population agreeing to participate in the survey being more favourable to vaccination than the general population.

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Read 8 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
Jan 19
Good news, with the latest ONS infection study advance data showing that three of the four nations have now started to fall, with NI the exception (though the rise there is within the conf interval bounds).

E 🔽6.9% to 5.5%
W🔽5.6% to 3.7%
NI🔼5.4% to 5.7%
S🔽5.7% to 4.5%
1/
By region, all are now falling, except for the NE, which showed a further increase. You can see clearly how London peaked earlier, and is now falling fast.

2/
Similarly, only one outlier by age band - that of the youngest from age 2 to School Year 6, which still shows an increase. Though 70+ is flat at 3.1% - would be good to see the oldest age group fall too.

3/
Read 4 tweets

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