IRL when a currency depreciates, it's good for the country's exports b/c products are now cheaper.
That's exactly what happened w/ NFT.
In past mo ETH depreciated 40% vs USD--> NFT sales volume ballooned...
It's interesting that sales vol increased almost 80% in same period. implying a price elasticity of 80% / 40% = 2, which puts NFTs square in the luxury goods category, i.e. if we assume eth prices of NFTs are sticky as eth depreciates.
In reality price elasticity is lower b/c prices denominated in eth did change at least for some bluechip projects.
e.g. while eth depreciated 40%, average eth price for Cool Cats increased 40%, making average price in USD roughly same as before eth depreciation.
The same cannot be said abt all projects though. Many didn't see sufficient price increase in eth to off set currency depreciation.
Imo whether a NFT can at least retain its $ value when underlining currency goes through major volatility is a litmus test of staying power.
Those whose prices go up when underlining L1 token goes down & at least stay same when L1 token price goes up are the real deal.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Hodling BTC & ETH doesn’t get you far. Outperformance comes from betting on winners b/f the crowd.
Yes that’s hard. But crypto is more equal than tradFi. W/ solid process, you can beat many larger players.
A 5-step framework for picking winners w/o hot tips or “expert” help 👇
Note if you have PTSD from prior cycles that tells you all “alt coins” go to zero, you need to deal w/ that emotional baggage rn b/f it does even more damage to your bank account.
Time is different. Crypto has order-of-magnitude more adoption w/ real use cases compared to 4 yrs ago & train isn’t stopping. If you don’t adapt, you’ll get left behind.
i.e. if relays grow 600% a yr, token supply should grow abt same. If god forbid relays shrink 50% a yr, token supply shrinks 50% too via burns (actually burns will be more than 50% since there're still new mints distributed to nodes)
This way token value cab be relatively stable vis-a-vis value-added created by platform, aside from fluctuations caused by speculation. Node owners know exactly how much they're paid if they can count on token value being stable. Builds confidence & trust in long run.
Overall crypto market hasn’t grown in past half yr & will meet w/ more headwind in next 6 mos.
But that doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities if you know where to look.
Here’s my market outlook for coming months 👇
First off, from a speculative flow point of view, price growth of large caps like BTC & ETH rely almost entirely on new money coming into crypto. They’re gateway drugs for new participants, whose gains are then channeled to other tokens.
BTC & ETH are 60% of total crypto mkt cap. Lack of price growth for these two in last 6 mos is a sign that new funding inflow is small.
Transition from single chain to layer 1-layer 2 structure has large implications for ETH token valuation. And most people aren’t yet thinking this through 👇
First off I wrote abt how to value blockchain platform tokens like nation state currencies a while ago. I recommend a read cuz it’ll help you understand what I’m gonna say next, as it’s an application of same framework.
In short, think of L1 platforms like nation state economies. You need native token to pay fees in every transaction on platform just like you need USD in every economic transaction in US. The on-chain economic activities thus form fundamental demand for native token.
If you have trouble figuring out which layer 1 blockchains are investment worthy, it’s not your fault.
There’re so many L1 chains now & things are changing fast. Hard to keep up.
Let’s go through major L1s one by one & assess prospect for each 👇
Note ’tis my opinion & not investment advice. I try to tell it like it is. If I don’t say nice things abt your bag & you get triggered, sort it out w/ your therapist. I’m not your mother & not obliged to make you happy.
First let’s divide main L1s into 4 tiers according to how much traction they’ve got: