Clint Ehrlich Profile picture
Jan 26 12 tweets 4 min read
The President of Croatia has gone rogue!

He's trying to prevent war over Ukraine.

It just might work. A quick thread... 🧵
For background, it was already clear that the alliance was divided over how involved to be in Ukraine.

America, the U.K., Poland, and the Baltic states were transferring weapons.

But Germany refused to let any German-made weapons enter the conflict zone.
Then President Biden put 8,500 troops on "high alert" – and warned he might deploy 50,000 to Eastern Europe.

The question was... would NATO stand behind this ramping up of pressure?

Or would troop deployments on the border of the conflict fracture the alliance?
We now have a preliminary answer, thanks to Croatia's President.

"Croatia will not send any troops in case of an escalation," said Zoran Milanović.

"On the contrary, it will recall all troops [from NATO], to the last Croatian soldier!"
This is notable, because it isn't coming from a Euroskeptic with a history of picking on NATO.

Milanović is a member of Croatia's center-left Social Democrat party, which is strongly pro-European.

But even many sympathetic to Europe want no part of conflict with Russia.
Mr. Milanović went further, and made two points that are almost universally banned in the West.

1. He pointed out that the Ukraine conflict is happening on Russia's door step

2. He said that NATO "must reach a deal that will take account of the security interests of Russia."
These points violate the Western orthodoxy on the Ukraine conflict.

It is forbidden to recognize that Russia may have legitimate security interests.

It is anathema to propose reaching a diplomatic solution instead of fighting a proxy war.
Unsurprisingly, Milanović is now a target.

His own Foreign Minister is trying to have him canceled.

“The president does not speak for Croatia, but for himself," FM Grlić-Radman said. "We are and will remain a loyal member of NATO."
There is a political divide here, because Grlić-Radman is from a center-right party within Croatia.

But there is a deeper divide: one about whether to mindlessly follow the Western consensus or to be "Croatia First!"

Milanović is speaking like a patriot.
The question now becomes: How many other patriots are there in NATO?

Will other heads of state speak out and declare that their countries have no appetite for war with Russia?
Germany's Navy chief cost himself his career with that message.

Milanović just risked his reputation.

Who will be next?

BREAKING NEWS: More details about the shocking comments from Croatia's President!

He says the crisis in Ukraine is caused by "American domestic politics, namely Joe Biden."

Claims the U.S. President is guilty of "inconsistency and essentially dangerous behavior."

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More from @ClintEhrlich

Jan 26
URGENT: I have a proposal to stop the war over Ukraine.

It's a diplomatic solution.

It doesn't give the West or Russia everything they want – but it overcomes each side's primary objections. 🧵 Image
Russia has demanded formal legal guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO.

It has released a public draft of a proposed treaty including that and other, bigger concessions from the West.

It says all those terms are negotiable – but that Ukraine in NATO is a red line. Image
The U.S. has informally assured Russia that there is no imminent plan for Ukraine to join NATO.

However, it refuses to provide the formal legal guarantee that Russia is demanding.

It claims that excluding Ukraine from NATO would be unlawful. Image
Read 28 tweets
Jan 25
Ex-CIA analyst warns that the conflict in Ukraine could spill over to war with NATO.

She makes this sound like it would be an accident.

But the Biden administration is *planning* cross-border operations from Poland and Romania!
Mark my words: They want to set up training camps in NATO member states, send NATO-equipped fighters to conduct cross-border attacks on Russian forces inside a war zone...

... but think this won't risk NATO-Russia conflict?
If the goal is "plausible deniability," I have bad news: Two can play that game.

Russia will not need to launch *overt* attacks on NATO training camps inside Romania or Poland.

It can use its own proxy forces, just like NATO is threatening to do.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 21
The conventional wisdom is that we're headed for a second Cold War with Russia.

I disagree. We're flirting with a hot war.

It could involve nukes. Billions of people could die. 🧵
Just like before the Iraq War, there is a pro-war lobby pushing Biden to attack Russia.

They want to put together a "coalition of the willing."

Russia will be attacked if it does not surrender the territory it acquired in 2014. defenseone.com/ideas/2022/01/…
The call for war is not coming from fringe people in lonely corners of the internet.

That op-ed is from Obama's deputy assistant secretary of defense.

She says that we should, "if necessary, prepare for war" with Russia.
Read 29 tweets
Jan 20
My appearance on Tucker Carlson has been headline news in Russia.

Both state and private media have given it significant coverage.

ria.ru/20220119/obuza…
Why am I sharing this?

Because I believe in transparency.

I want my English-language audience to understand how my words are received in Russia.
lenta.ru/news/2022/01/1…
Some people are attacking me for my popularity in Russia.

This woman is a senior fellow at @CEPA, and she acts like the positive coverage from Moscow proves I'm a propagandist.

Read 6 tweets
Jan 20
Many people are asking me about Biden's big comment today – i.e., that NATO might not respond forcefully to a "minor incursion" by the Russians.

Does it change the strategic calculus for the Russians in Ukraine?

Is it likely to invite aggression? A quick 🧵
The honest answer is "no" and "no."

It was a dumb thing to say, and it's tempting to score partisan points by dumping on the President for it.

But to pretend that this will materially affect the decisions made by Russia is simply not realistic.
When we speak about what Russia will do, to be clear, we are actually addressing a much narrower question.

Russia has a strict "power vertical" – the decision about whether and how to invade Ukraine rests firmly with Vladimir Putin.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 20
***URGENT STATEMENT*** Please RT!

Today's @washingtonpost accuses me of having worked for Russia's government.

That is FALSE. I demand an *immediate retraction.*

If this story by @pbump is not corrected, I will pursue legal action: washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/… Image
I was a Visiting Researcher at MGIMO University in Russia.

That is *not* a paid position.

It's like being an exchange student, but at the level of a PhD.
The claim that I was involved in a Russian "think tank" is also false.

MGIMO University contains multiple think tanks – just like, for example, Stanford contains the Hoover Institution.

However, I was *NOT* involved in any of those think tanks.
Read 5 tweets

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