Many people are asking me about Biden's big comment today – i.e., that NATO might not respond forcefully to a "minor incursion" by the Russians.
Does it change the strategic calculus for the Russians in Ukraine?
Is it likely to invite aggression? A quick 🧵
Does it change the strategic calculus for the Russians in Ukraine?
Is it likely to invite aggression? A quick 🧵
The honest answer is "no" and "no."
It was a dumb thing to say, and it's tempting to score partisan points by dumping on the President for it.
But to pretend that this will materially affect the decisions made by Russia is simply not realistic.
It was a dumb thing to say, and it's tempting to score partisan points by dumping on the President for it.
But to pretend that this will materially affect the decisions made by Russia is simply not realistic.
When we speak about what Russia will do, to be clear, we are actually addressing a much narrower question.
Russia has a strict "power vertical" – the decision about whether and how to invade Ukraine rests firmly with Vladimir Putin.
Russia has a strict "power vertical" – the decision about whether and how to invade Ukraine rests firmly with Vladimir Putin.
The question is, did this comment by Biden give Putin any information with two characteristics.
1. New, i.e., something he didn't know before
2. Material, i.e., relevant to his decision about the timing and scope of Russian military intervention
1. New, i.e., something he didn't know before
2. Material, i.e., relevant to his decision about the timing and scope of Russian military intervention
Biden's comment fails both of these criteria.
First, it didn't tell Putin anything that he didn't know.
It was already well understood that NATO was fractured about how to respond to a limited Russian intervention.
First, it didn't tell Putin anything that he didn't know.
It was already well understood that NATO was fractured about how to respond to a limited Russian intervention.
This was clear from many things.
But perhaps the biggest was the unwillingness of Germany to commit to canceling the Nordstream-2 pipeline.
As well as the attempt to walk-back threats about kicking Russia out of SWIFT.
Thus, the disunity was already well known.
But perhaps the biggest was the unwillingness of Germany to commit to canceling the Nordstream-2 pipeline.
As well as the attempt to walk-back threats about kicking Russia out of SWIFT.
Thus, the disunity was already well known.
Second, the comments were not really material, because Biden employed such a restricted definition of "incursion."
When asked to clarify what would constitute an invasion to which NATO would firmly respond, he said Russia coming across the border and killing UA soldiers.
When asked to clarify what would constitute an invasion to which NATO would firmly respond, he said Russia coming across the border and killing UA soldiers.
That definition would apply to virtually all of the RU interventions that are seriously being threatened.
Indeed, it's hard to understand what it *wouldn't* include, beyond something like purely diplomatic recognition of the DPR and LPR.
Indeed, it's hard to understand what it *wouldn't* include, beyond something like purely diplomatic recognition of the DPR and LPR.
Thus, while it was certainly bad optics for Biden to mince words on the "incursion vs. invasion" question, he did not actually greenlight any plausible Russian operation.
There isn't any military option that Putin could choose with confidence it would only be "an incursion."
There isn't any military option that Putin could choose with confidence it would only be "an incursion."
This isn't to say that it's not fair to criticize Biden for his comment.
It was a poor display of statesmanship, it alienated our allies, and it might well raise questions about how sharp his thinking is, given his age.
But that doesn't mean it will affect Russia's decisions.
It was a poor display of statesmanship, it alienated our allies, and it might well raise questions about how sharp his thinking is, given his age.
But that doesn't mean it will affect Russia's decisions.
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