This will offend many of you, and of course there are notable exceptions -- some of whom I know. But more and more, I think that young people should not aim to work as professional investors. Especially with other peoples' money.
In HF space, we do hire young people -- but to work as analysis. Years and years of that before you make investment decisions. Even though analysts' idea are often very good.
The vast majority of you should work as an operatoooor for a while, or as a lowly IC. Put a few shekels into the market. Experience a few market cycles. Track your ideas if you don't invest, and see how those would have worked out. What were you certain of that turned out wrong?
Read great books like Reminiscences of a Stock Operatooor.
The hero of that Remeniscences was a stock market pro young, but he started at the bucket shops even younger. Subotai + Alexander started super young too.
If you've not been investing since you were 12, you're not on their level at 25.
I played high stakes poker at a young age, and while I probably had more edge then, I *wish* I had the temperament I have now. Experience matters.
Young people can be great at building, and even at leading -- especially technical work.
But I've seen very few young investoooors that are good at talking to people, good at taking the measure of a man -- without offending him in the process. Good both at followup, and tactfully saying no while maintaining a positive relationship.
They are swayed by new and shiny ideas -- even ones that clearly NGMI. They aren't open to hearing why something they kind of like, has fatal flaws. Nor can they see that something is great, often times, despite obvious flaws -- a great baseball player who has holes in his game.
But mainly -- while young people can provide value by investing in hot market on behalf of boomers who don't understand -- is that the best way to spend your life?
You can be an investoor later. By doing so early in life, you greatly limit your options. In many cases.
If you don't understand how being a professional investoooor constricts your view on life -- that is the point. You need to live, and do other things. Most likely.
I have a great memory. Can still tell you many of the ideas I had that were way off. Many ideas from pro investooors you'd hear at a poker game that went busto. Friends who went all-in on speculative ideas and lost big. Can't misses that missed...
Poker also shows you -- in objective terms that can't be ignored -- how often a smart person comes into a field, has some early success, and thinks he's way better than he is. Or she -- seen that a number of times with smart ladies.
There are great young poker players of course -- but listen to anyone like @CrownUpGuy -- they started playing super young, had ups and downs for years before reaching the highest levels.
John Danaher talks about going from beginner to mastery in five years. And he means serious, dedicated training.
Not six months.
Trading/investment cycles take way longer.
Like I said, there are exceptions. As there are people who genuinely don't need 8 hours of sleep. But most of us do.
Some young people have a long enough view, and the temperament, to be good investors. But most, should probably do something different for a while.
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Punks absolutely flying! 70+ sales in the past 24 hours and not slowing down.
* floor to 74Ξ, Male floor 80Ξ
* clean punks going ~100Ξ
* floor for some atty like "luxurious beard" 100Ξ+ as many de-list 🧔
* Hoodies, other 200Ξ+ premiums not moving (yet)
I get that some in USG don't like Russia. They just want Russia to lose, at everything. I get that impulse. Not sure I see a deeper justification here.
As much as it hurts me to say -- as an applied deep learning guy for years, and still a massive fan of the space -- in this climate, "AI for X" startups might not do very well. Even if you raise, you may not have the room to figure it out.
I still think AI/ML/deep learning will be solving a lot more practical problems. This will be a long-term trend over the next decade+. Not at all a bad space to get into. But you've got to have a long term approach.
I think ML infra and tools are good. But some of those companies will also struggle, as their customers struggle, and BigCo will be more reluctant to throw people and $ at the space without a clear goal in mind.
Give yourself respect if you can understand the complex biology of how they control individual neuron cells. Explained really well, but it's intricate. Gonna listen to it for third time now. It's well worth it. 🧬
Amazing where biology has gone in the past 10-20 years. Growing up in a physics household, it was not that hard sciences looked down on biology (they did not) it's just biology wasn't very precise. We were amazed what they could do with such un-exact tools back then.
Now the level of measurement and control is kind of unbelievable. You can hear that in @PeterAttiaMD voice, and he know the work.
Same as every time @razibkhan describes what's possible with ancient DNA.
The kind of science we could only dream of as kids.
On one hand, don't be the tech guy asking "tough questions" in business meeting about advanced tech, because you are the a-hole (have been that guy, have been on the other side as well)
On other hand too much incentive to fool CEO who doesn't know overfit
I'm all for demos. This shows the upper bound, and lets you dream a little. We all need that.
But ML isn't like building a car. If you build the demo car, clearly more cars can be built (at some cost). The steps taken toward creating a compelling ML/AI demo can be completely divorced from making it work in practice.
O1 has always been a flexible but mysterious program. Our family got it -- but easy since my father was physics professor at Tier 1 university.
Had Russian friends who got it through chess -- GM/IM pretty easy -- you have international titles.
Seems it was always focused on credentials. That isn't changing but I guess now University cred (PhD) is enough, as opposed to needing some central body to certify you (like an academy of science, international conference, FIDE, etc)