A dangerous moment. While some of us suggested RU escalation most likely negotiation ploy (other stuff doesn’t make enough sense), being called out on bluff is start of unpredictable terrain. Biden was clever to say “he’s going in.” I’m worried ppl now start shouting “he isn’t”
https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1486258750772195333
I can’t claim to know Putin’s game plan. But I do know that historically speaking, he enjoys stealth and surprises. He rarely does things exactly the way he telegraphs up ahead. And that he always ratchets up (military) pressure during negotiations.
One other thing that’s we can’t say is “Putin hasn't left himself room not to invade” — as some seem to be suggesting. There’s nothing, domestically speaking, preventing u-turn. Kremlin has not primed local audiences for war. Indeed quite the opposite.
Any kind of declaration from US-NATO, like the one that Stoltenberg seemed to be suggesting yesterday, could be sold in Russia as a victory. If that’s what Putin wants and needs. International reputation perhaps another thing, but I can’t see that it’s unmanageable there either.
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