My dispatch from the heart of Ukraine’s counter-offensive in Zaporizhia region. I spoke to the combat engineers who — in their own words — have become Russia’s target number one.

economist.com/europe/2023/07… Ukraine has switched tactics after a failed offensive south from Mala Tokmachka early on in the campaign. Now small groups of men probe forward on foot. In the open plains of Zaporizhia this is war’s most dangerous work. They are suffering the highest casualty rates of any units

Yesterday I attended the opening of an art exhibition in St Petersburg Wagner Center — a “co-working hub” and “innovations centre” opened in St Petersburg by the same men who brought you decapitations and sledgehammer executions. I know, don’t ask. Just read on… The centre consciously tries to channel 1984 villain vibes. A video of a faceless man welcomes you into the building. On another video, above the coffee machine, visitors are told: “We know we are going to hell, but we will be the best ones there.”

At last checkpoint before Russia occupied Zaporizhia. Counted about 100 cars arriving within 30 min, overflowing with humanity. 5,6,7 to a car. Can confirm males 18-35 now being let through. Something changed after Putin’s remarks claiming they would not be mobilised. But Russian soldiers told ppl the situation will change on oct 1st.

Zelensky actually went right into the Severodonetsk salient. Remarkable Brave or reckless. You decide. But clear Putin won’t be doing anything similar any time soon. Propagandists will do all that can to keep forage away from Russian tv screens

Note some Russian / tankie accounts activated over my reporting from Azov commander. So here we go: In early days, Azov firmly associated with far right. Now? It’s more complicated. They’ve professionalised, filtered out great deal of extremists. (#1 Continues —>)

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1516495232929574926

In the heinous Russian assault on Mariupol, many locals are asking q who the real Nazis are. Azov reputation improved greatly by their humanitarian efforts in early stages and dogged resistance later. Yes, we all still have questions. But context has changed. (#2 Continues -->)

Spoke to Svyatoslav Palamar, deputy commander of Azov regiment, part of Ukrainian forces holed up inside Azovstal steel plant in #Mariupol. Confirms was an airstrike on the hospital inside the plant today, with “many people” dead and “many under rubble.” No exact numbers (1) Says soldiers ready to leave Mariupol — if allowed to leave with their own weapons. “We can’t hold on indefinitely. We’re ready to leave‚” he says. But without those guarantees, the Ukrainians will “fight to the end.” (2)

Breaking. Zelensky has just announced that secret services have captured Putin’s best friend in Ukraine Viktor Medvedchuk. He had been on the run. Medvedchuk, the godfather to Putin’s children, is a highly controversial figure inside Ukraine. Poroshenko used him as a conduit to Putin. Zelensky blocked his media and put him under house arrest.

Olga Vladimirovna spent month locked in a basement of school in Yahidne, Chernihiv oblast, which had misfortune of being location of Russian base. She was one of 320. 4 people per sq m. She “slept” with one foot against walk in corridor. A dozen most elderly died from suffocation Others said soldiers kept locked them in basement 1) as human shield 2) to protect them. Ethnic Russians were more human, says Natalya (pic), didn’t want to be there, & even kept guard as she milked cow. But the soldiers fm Buryatia + Tuva in neighbouring village were “beastly”

Russian foreign ministry has published its 11 page! official response to US letter on security guarantees. As expected, it says Russia has been ignored, US isn’t treating concerns seriously, gives little away. The document in pretty hardline form asks for a new "security equation,” withdrawal of all US troops and weapons from C, E, SE Europe, Baltic, and “concrete legally binding proposals from US and NATO not to further expand alliance eastwards”

A dangerous moment. While some of us suggested RU escalation most likely negotiation ploy (other stuff doesn’t make enough sense), being called out on bluff is start of unpredictable terrain. Biden was clever to say “he’s going in.” I’m worried ppl now start shouting “he isn’t”

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1486258750772195333

I can’t claim to know Putin’s game plan. But I do know that historically speaking, he enjoys stealth and surprises. He rarely does things exactly the way he telegraphs up ahead. And that he always ratchets up (military) pressure during negotiations.

Vladimir #Putin says state of the nation address is about domestic politics. But “a few words” about foreign policy, security too. Fasten your seatbelts.

(Usual structure for these things is: 1) cash for pensioners + doctors, 2) big break around the corner 3) nukes for NATO) The skeleton in the cupboard //

On a normal day, Putin’s speech would be the main event, but not today. Even before Putin began his speech, protests in support of hunger striking ‘skeletal’ Alexei Navalny were underway in Russian Far East. Arrests have already been reported.