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Michael M. 🇨🇭🇳🇴🇮🇸🇱🇮🇬🇧

Jan 26 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

A reporter asked me what would happen next?...
Exporters will never hold back on selling goods depending on Incoterms & contracts. What will happen is EU importers will get fed up of delays & cancel future orders & look to other EU internal market, including NI, suppliers.

GB importers will get fed up too, but won't have same luxury to turn into such a big internal market. They'll need to put up with the border delays & costs & pass onto GB consumers.
EU hauliers (UK had become 85% JiT dependent on EU hauliers' round trip Driver Accom RoRo basis)

will also turn to their internal market. The dwindling numbers coming to UK will command ever more rocketing prices,,,again adding to inflation to GB imported goods.
They will go out empty (which is UK exports not being exported) with the inbound leg to GB paying for this loss.

UK exporters will need to find other ways to get their exports into EU. This limited choice or (airfreight higher costs) will kill off yet more UK exports as EU importers get pissed off and further turn to their internal market. The queues to Calais/EU ports for GB will get worse

as UK (probably not) introduces its thrice delayed (from1/1/21) SPS & SSD controls in July.
The queues to Dover will get worse until (dwindling orders from EU) freight/trade dissipates away inc to driver unaccompanied UK ports..
or when UK G reverts again to 'flow over control'

(continued smugglers charter & advantage EU exporters over GB counterparts) at EU ports by again "relaxing" GB inbound ferry boarding rules, quickening up that round trip (ferries shuttling back & forth) flow.

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Michael M. 🇨🇭🇳🇴🇮🇸🇱🇮🇬🇧

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Michael M. 🇨🇭🇳🇴🇮🇸🇱🇮🇬🇧

@vivamjm

Jan 22

Try to imagine it like this: leaving GB to FR/EU somebody has had their foot on a hose since 1/1/21. Ferry is slower loading, but when it zips across channel the queue waiting there in FR/EU has had nobody standing on the hose...until 1/1/22.

Now somebody is *partially only* standing on the hose FR/EU to GB.
Slower to load FR/EU side means longer queue building on the GB side waiting for ferries shuttling back that cannot afford to be too non commercially empty. So fewer sailings but still not running as profitably.

Left unchecked queues both sides will stretch. UK Gov (at your expense) will have commissioned extra ferries to sail much more empty. I believe DFDS service out of Sheerness pulled from service this week (adding to workload on Dover port) to ferry out more unaccompanied trailers

Read 8 tweets

Michael M. 🇨🇭🇳🇴🇮🇸🇱🇮🇬🇧

@vivamjm

Jan 22

@JVSwallow

@JVSwallow believes delays will get worse as trade picks up this month. “I think European hauliers will decide they no longer want to come here – that they won’t want to bother with the red tape and will find it a lot easier to just trade in Europe.”
fleetpoint.org/logistics/dist…

“Last year when these regulations kicked in on the British side of the border traders extracted themselves from the market but as they were exporting from the UK no one on the High Street noticed but this year, as this builds up, we will notice"

One driver tweeted: “If you are currently wondering why the quality of food is so poor right now…it’s probably sitting in the back of a truck along with me in Calais – outside the port trying to get in.”

Read 4 tweets

Michael M. 🇨🇭🇳🇴🇮🇸🇱🇮🇬🇧

@vivamjm

Jan 21

Ruth Cadbury echoed a call from the British Chambers of Commerce for the government to streamline some of the new red tape required. “The government has an opportunity to smooth things out,” she said.
How the fuck how?
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…

Can only "smooth things out" by joining/becoming part of same regulatory territory (a single market); same customs territory (a customs union)
or at the very least by closer alignment.
**Do these idiot politicians still not get it??**

Does Ruth/they not realise there is ..on the contrary much more worse.. *rough* to come ?!?
UK has yet to introduce its full market standards/SPS controls and its SSDs in accordance with its chosen (what it wanted) TCA Brexit..

Read 4 tweets

Michael M. 🇨🇭🇳🇴🇮🇸🇱🇮🇬🇧

@vivamjm

Jan 21

More will get used to customs/RoO controls; but also freight levels will increase in the short term & worst of the *UK* import (market standards/SPS & SSDs) controls..constantly delayed ..are still yet to come in July through to Nov...unless delayed again into 2023 (they will be)

(this because UKG - justified - had repeated fears of supply chain throughout being too throttled causing greater shortages). It also quietly extended EU haulier favouring unlimited cabotage from last Oct to prevent supply chains collapse. This EU favouring is still Gov policy.

They still are afraid to fully implement their TCA though, esp with food from Ireland where even the partial SPS controls are deferred yet again. Advantaged IE/EU suppliers over UK counterparts & Smugglers Charter being the continued UK Gov preferred option

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