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Luca Dellanna Profile picture
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Jan 26 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A great thread on herd immunity. It’s long, so let me highlight the most important tweets. This is the first one.
Second
Third
Fourth.

“To have a herd you need a fence”
Fifth

• • •

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More from @DellAnnaLuca

Luca Dellanna Profile picture
Jan 25
If the expected value of breaking the law is positive, a competitive marketplace selects for psychopaths.

Dangerous.
We don’t just need fines that are more than fees. We also need them to enforce them early.

Because an early fine is small enough to change the behavior of a business without ruining it. Conversely, waiting becomes a lose-lose problem, where to punish a business we destroy it.
A marketplace that selects for psychopaths is not just dangerous.

It’s also a waste, because it doesn’t select for more honest and responsible businesses.

And puts pressure to their managers to select psychopaths, bringing the same pressure to deeper levels. Lose-lose.
Read 4 tweets
Luca Dellanna Profile picture
Jan 21
CATCHING UP WITH DEATHS

In Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, and a few more countries, fewer people died during the pandemic than during the average year.

If / once they re-open borders, will deaths “catch up”? Did they only delay the inevitable?

thread 1/7
First of all, green zones' populations are more vaccinated than Europe was in 2020-2021 and omicron is milder than Delta. This means that, even if the green areas got invaded by the virus in 2022 (say), there would be fewer excess deaths than recorded in Europe in 20-21.

2/7
Secondly, a major driver of excess mortality is the overwhelming of the healthcare system.

Green zones can modulate their reopening to travelers from abroad, thus having access to a flatter curve than Europe had in 20-21.

3/7
Read 7 tweets
Luca Dellanna Profile picture
Jan 12
Excess deaths in the age group 0-14 yo exceed the normal range for the first time since the start of the pandemic (Euromomo data). Image
It's currently at the level of winter 2019 (flu), but the "currently" refers to the latest week of full data, and that is week 48 of 2021, and it's known that child hospitalizations grew up fast in the last days of 2021. Image
.@MillunchickZ prompted me to verify an eventual link with children vaccination

These are the countries in descending order of excess children deaths. 🇨🇭 🇦🇹 (low child vaccination, high November cases) scores low; 🇪🇸 🇵🇹 🇮🇱 (high child vacc, low Nov cases) score high

1/2 Image
Read 4 tweets
Luca Dellanna Profile picture
Jan 10
The first chapter of the second edition of my book, “Ergodicity”

1/10
2/10
3/10
Read 10 tweets
Luca Dellanna Profile picture
Jan 9
EXCESS MORTALITY IN ITALY (NO SIGN OF NATURAL IMMUNITY BEING CLOSE)

There doesn't seem to be any major trend emerging from analyzing 2021 excess deaths against 2020 ones.

No clear sign of herd immunity nor harvest effect.
These are the hardest-hit provinces.

The two hardest-hit ones have excess mortality back to baseline, but most other ones still have excess mortality.

Why don't I consider Bergamo province as an example of herd/natural immunity?

(answer next tweet)
Here is the scatterplot of all towns in Bergamo province (I excluded tiny ones with <10 yearly deaths during baseline years)

No clear trend
Read 7 tweets
Luca Dellanna Profile picture
Jan 8
EXCESS MORTALITY IN ITALY, 2021 vs 2020

These are the top towns by 2020 excess mortality vs baseline

What happened in 2020 doesn't seem to have affected what happened in 2021 (what herd immunity? what harvest effect?)
Below, the chart for all Italian towns of significant size.
Again, no significant relationship between excess deaths in 2020 and 2021. (In the thread, I only consider towns whose baseline yearly deaths are >100/y)
Also, note that for 16% of Italian towns, excess mortality in 2020 and 2021 have both been lower than baseline (the bottom-left quadrant).

Possibly a sign that lockdowns don't cause excess deaths, the virus does?
Read 4 tweets

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