Thread by @fbermingham

NEW!

EU to imminently launch WTO case against China over economic coercion campaign against Lithuania

scmp.com/news/china/dip…

EU spent the past month interviewing Lithuanian businesses who had been blocked from Chinese market, after the government in Vilnius permitted the opening of a "Taiwanese Representative Office" in the capital.

EU feels it has gathered enough evidence to make a case in Geneva.

A request for consultation will be lodged. China may or may not enter bilateral talks with Brussels. It will then go to a dispute settlement panel

Both parties are signatories to the MPIA, alternative to the defunct appellate body, so this one can't be appealed into the void.

However, worth remembering that the WTO governs live cases, so if China was to end the coercion campaign during proceedings, then the case would be dropped. "Cold comfort for Lithuanian exporters"," @mercuriobryan told me

Lithuania's trade with China is minimal, but it became even *more minimal* last month, when we saw 90%+ drops in exports to China compared to both December 2020 and November 2021.

Eviscerated…

scmp.com/news/china/dip…

According to EU officials, Beijing claims that there is no official boycott: these are patriotic businesses who don't want to buy goods from countries that question China's sovereignty, officials have been told.

There are a paucity of options available to Brussels - WTO the natural route to take, while anti-coercion instrument is in development

Confidence in the commission that ACI might be fast-tracked under the French and Czech presidencies of the EU this year, but no firm timeline

Comes amid a chaotic period in Vilnius, with multiple reports about the government wavering over the naming of the office. Usually these offices are called "Taipei" rather than "Taiwanese".

Here's what I have heard on that front…

As reported by Reuters, FM suggested renaming Chinese name, as seen in this pic I took in Vilnius. It literally translates as "Taiwan Representative Office" in Lithuania

The thinking was, to bring it in line with the English version "Taiwanese", therefore referring to the people rather than the territory. Maybe "台湾人民", but I don't see how that would have calmed things down.

The name in English is already what caused the problem

This was designed as a msg to some EU member states, to show that Lithuania is not intransigent and is willing to negotiate.

Some capitals are wondering out loud why Vilnius has picked a fight with China, esp now goods from Germany, France, Sweden etc caught up in blockade

This idea was never raised with the Taiwanese: instead it was put to the US, which (probably rightly) pointed out that it would make no difference to China and would be unlikely to soothe tensions.

So they recommended keeping the name.

It has been reported that the US has encouraged Lithuania to compromise on this issue. but I understand otherwise. The US has encouraged Lithuania to stand its ground.

Remember the backdrop: China policy is unpopular with Lithuanians, just 1% said they "strongly support" it.

scmp.com/news/china/dip…

Businesses are also kicking off, the President is at war with the Foreign Minister over it, there is pressure building - but the foreign ministry is now insisting there will be no change.

15min.lt/naujiena/aktua…

De facto Taiwanese Amb Eric Huang told me:

“We are not like other countries, which criticise others’ domestic affairs. We refrain from commenting on other countries’ domestic political development. So I will not comment on the internal discussions of our Lithuanian friends."

It's also worth noting some trends elsewhere: last week the Slovenian PM discussed hosting a Taiwan office of some kind in Ljubljana.

Afterwards, Slovenian businesses reported a backlash in China

voanews.com/a/slovenian-tr…

While the big one to watch is in Washington.

A 3,000 page China bill finalised in Congress last night directed the govt to rename the the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, to the “Taiwan Representative Office in the United States”

scmp.com/news/china/art…