I approve of the Fed’s turn towards recognition of inflation as the primary threat to the US economy. I can’t understand why they are still doing QE on any scale. Perhaps they will learn the lesson that being specific @ future intentions is dangerous b/ of what it locks you into.
I don’t understand the communications strategy behind causing major volatility during the press conference rather than delivering all the messages in the FOMC statement.
The Flexible Average Inflation Target (FAIT) framework taken seriously would require a period of sub 2 percent inflation to offset what we are now going thru.
I trust Fed will abandon this misguided framework and the associated no preemption and lift off only when full employment is conclusively proven.
More broadly I hope forecasting errors of the last year are a cause for soul searching & we can return to recognizing what has been lost in recent yrs: Overheating the economy means a temp gain in employment & permanent increase in inflation until there is an offsetting slow down

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More from @LHSummers

Jan 19
1/ @paulkrugman works to manufacture disagreement between us over antitrust policy and its relation to inflation.

Paul agrees that increased monopoly power of a kind addressable by antitrust is at most a minor cause of the recent surge in inflation.
2/ I was clear in my tweets that if inflation was simply being used as an impetus to support the Biden competition policy agenda, much of which I support, I had no objection.
3/ Paul invokes Kennedy’s attack on steel executives. That rhetoric was very strong. So were the legal tactics used by his brother’s Justice Dept. Most historians regard Kennedy’s victory as pyrrhic.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 26, 2021
The emerging claim that antitrust can combat inflation reflects “science denial”. There are many areas like transitory inflation where serious economists differ. Antitrust as an anti-inflation strategy is not one of them.
I hope the Admin is simply using inflation as a way of adding urgency to the promotion of competition. That is a possible reading of this important @nytimes @jimtankersley @arappeport article. I strongly support much of the Admin’s competition agenda.

nytimes.com/2021/12/25/bus…
However, as described, hipster Brandeisian antitrust, with which the Admin and its appointees flirt, is more likely to raise than lower prices.
Read 14 tweets
Dec 24, 2021
Judged purely in terms of economic impacts, the Administration’s decision to extend student loan moratorium is highly problematic.
At a time when unemployment is unusually low and household balance sheets are very strong for all income quintiles, there is no special case for across the board relief now, unlike when it was put in place two years ago.
The Admin understood this when it made clear the last round of temporary debt relief would be the final one & not be extended. How much things have changed since the onset of Covid when it was completely explicit that student loan relief would sunset after the previous extension
Read 12 tweets
Dec 22, 2021
This article is devastating. When ⁦@propublica⁩ sees overly heavy handed regulation they are super likely to be right.
propublica.org/article/this-s…
As with the aftermath of 9/11 or the financial crisis there should be a systematic review of the performance of key agencies after the pandemic arrived.
I suspect it will show that good and dedicated people applying traditional procedures to a totally new context made bad decisions that caused thousands of deaths.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 21, 2021
⁦.@ojblanchard1⁩ is out here with a superb rigorous treatment of macro issues in the current low rate environment. …y-under-low-interest-rates.pubpub.org
Not surprisingly, I am largely in agreement with his analysis of the current world where secular stagnation has been and likely will again be a principal macro policy challenge.
If the view now priced into markets that the US economy cannot withstand a Fed funds rate as high as 2 percent even with high debt and deficits is right saving absorption/secular stagnation is a major macro challenge.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 13, 2021
I cannot understand why so many in Admin & out cling to the idea that inflation is caused by bottlenecks & will soon recede to normal levels. Of course there is uncertainty but the idea that inflation will revert soon to levels anywhere near Fed’s target looks like a long shot.
Nonpartisan BLS CPI report refers to inflation as “broad increases in most sectors…similar to last month.” Inflation is not @ bottlenecks. Less than 10% of index saw inflation below 3% & aside from housing where figures are problematic, the share below 4% is less than quarter.
We have all seen house prices & rents soar. Home prices based on Case Shiller are up 15 to 20%, as are rental prices, as reported by the nation’s largest landlords. If we assume 17% residential inflation, both CPI and core CPI would have exceeded 10 percent last month.
Read 7 tweets

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