If you want proof of just how little most political enthusiasts understand about what’s really going on, look at the political betting sides. The odds are based on how people are betting to begin with – and the odds are usually hilariously off kilter.
If most people think Smith is going to win an election, then most bets will be placed in that direction, and the betting lines will show Smith as the favorite – if he’s clearly losing – simply because most people mistakenly THINK he’s winning.
Looking at political betting odds is the equivalent of a pollster asking “who do you THINK is going to win” – a largely useless question with a misleading result – instead of actually asking people who they’re voting for.
But it’s not that betting lines are inherently flawed. In sports, the betting lines are usually spot on. That’s because anyone can accurately learn which team is better just by watching ESPN. So they make sensible bets, and the betting lines end up reflecting that.
The problem is that the entire political media and punditry industry is based on telling each group of political enthusiasts whatever line of BS is going to keep them tuned in. Liberals are told they’re losing. Conservatives are told they’re winning. So they all think it’s true,
By 4am on election night it was 90% clear Biden would win, and by 9am it was 99.9% clear. Yet no one in the media (left or right), wanted to admit that, or people would turn it off due to lack of suspense and go to the beach instead.
During that entire stretch, from election night, to the weekend when the election was finally called, the betting odds were hilariously far removed from anything that was actually going on with the election. Just bizarro world alternate universe level nonsense.
As our friend @dumbassgenius points out, anyone who ignores the ratings-driven media hype, and instead pays attention to what’s actually going on, could make an absolute killing by playing the misplaced odds on the political betting sites.
But it shouldn’t be this way. If the average sports fan can watch sports news for a few minutes and then figure out what the odds are of each team winning, how is it that almost no one who watches political news has any idea who’s likely to win an election?
“Well of course Trump supporters don’t know what their side’s odds are!” No, our side is just as bad when it comes to that stuff. We’re always certain we’re going to lose, even when we’re clearly winning. Even when we win, we spin it into a loss in our minds.
When I did Q&A sessions in the weeks before the election, most of the questions were along the lines of “does Biden have any chance at all?” This was at a point where Biden very clearly had at least a 90% chance of winning. Most people on our side thought Biden had a 10% chance.
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