Thread by @althecat

#MiddleEast long range weather update.

While the weakening of the Sahara east west water transport event has led to a weakening in the weird weather over the Arabian Peninsula, it has not stopped.

Most notably we have seen significant snowfall in Israel, Lebanon Jordan & Syria.

And with a major European (Atlantic) tropical rain/snow event now underway the rain and snow activity in the Levant is forecast to continue. Here's yesterday's precipitation forecast for the Southern Levant.

And the Northern Levant.... (both forecasts are through to 4th February.

In the north of the Levant, Lebanon, Syria and Southern Turkey the snow has delivered a humanitarian crisis in refugee camps housing millions, which are not equipped for freezing conditions.

A UN briefing on this crisis was delivered on Monday in NYC. unmultimedia.org/avlibrary/asse…

The snow - cold weather crises in both Syria and Afghanistan are dire due to adverse weather, and its far from clear what progress is being made to address them.

Satellite images below show snow cover in Lebanon and NW Syria on the 22nd and 25th January.

Also from the 25th of January, a nice clear image of the recent snow coverage in Afghanistan.

A cold northerly blast has brought freezing temperatures to the the Balkans including a new record low temperature in Montenegro.

A 10 day ECMWF snow depth forecast for the Eastern Med - where the temperature is forecast to continue to fall, accompanied by lots more snow

A corresponding temperature forecast (10 days from 25th Jan) shows two cold air bursts coming through the region.

Further south over the Arabian Peninsula the unusual weather is also forecast to continue. Each of these water four forecast water transport events (GFS3 model) are capable of bringing additional snow and rain today, Feb 1-2, and February 4th.

And additional rain/snow events are possible on Feb 9th and 10th as tropical moisture (Atlantic and Indian Ocean origin) collides with cold northerly weather over the Levant, Iraq and Iran.

The final two forecasts here show forecast 16 day rainfall over the Middlle East and Africa - which includes some more (modest) rain over Northern Ethiopia. Note that long-range model rain forecasts in the ME often under estimate the impacts.

>> Accompanying thread

Looking back at some of the #CrazyWeather #ExtremeWeather experienced between 19th and 27th of January in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East with @Arab_storms

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1486669557548953601?s=20

/ENDS

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