This just in from my colleague Cooper Howard: It’s shaping up to be a wild day in #muniland. Munis are finally waking up to the prospect of tighter monetary policy. Since the start of the year, yields are up relative to Treasuries.
The biggest move has been in short-term munis where spreads were very low.
The move higher in yields has resulted in negative returns for muni mutual funds and ETFs. Recently, the streak of consecutive weeks of inflows reversed.
Selling pressure is heightened illustrated by the amount of bid wanted being at the highest level in over a year. This will likely contribute to #volatility in the #muni market today.
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Ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes, the discussion has moved from the timing and magnitude of rate hikes to reducing the balance sheet.
Even doves are on board with moving faster than in the post financial crisis era because inflation and growth are much stronger. Comments from Fed officials imply many options are on the table.
From Oct 2017 to July 2019 the Fed shrunk the balance sheet from 22.9% of GDP to 17.8% by allowing bonds to mature without reinvestment but using “caps” to smooth the process.