Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Treasury

Most recents (24)

🧱 The built environment represents 40% of U.K emissions, but the #Treasury's approach to the decarbonisation of this sector is an object lesson in how a lack of joined-up thinking is taking us away from our legally-binding #netzero carbon commitments.

A #Budget2021 THREAD! Image
🔨It can take between 10 and 80 years for a new, energy-efficient building to offset the emissions created during the construction process. Image
💷 But the U.K tax system militates against low carbon retrofit and upgrades to existing buildings by levying 20% VAT on renovations, while zero-rating new build homes. This means it often makes more financial sense to demolish and rebuild, rather than preserve and upgrade. Image
Read 11 tweets
⚠️ GROSS COI REVEALED: In an extraordinary and fantastically written investigative report, @theintercept's @rose_n_adams unveils how @UHC co-opted @zackcooperYale's #surprisemedicalbill study, all while #Congress embraced it as "academic" and "unbiased" work to write #SMB law.
1⃣ This lays bare how #UnitedHealth has manipulated #surprisebill "research" to enrich itself at the expense of all #patients and the frontline #medical providers risking their lives over the past few years of #Covid.

2⃣ The study was foundational in the #SMB debate, and...
...Congress was duped. We believe that Congressional #investigations are now warranted by the #House and #Senate #Judiciary Committees. @HouseJudiciary @JudiciaryDems

3⃣ This work from Prof. #Cooper and his @Yale team was cited *10 TIMES* in the first #regulation issued by...
Read 19 tweets
What is going on in the #treasury market? 10 year treasury just hit 1.13%. Yet my fair value model has it at 1.75% (incorporates Copper/Gold and other ratios - r2 of 90%+) #bonds #yields #YieldCurve ImageImage
This is right as fears of growth slowing down are coming up #jobs #ADP
usnews.com/news/economy/a…
Yet, the #ISM Manufacturing PMI is still in a highly expansionary state at 59.1 Image
Read 15 tweets
Oggi l'annuncio storico sul target di inflazione euro, secondo rumor sarà alzato a...con possibilità di superarlo. La Bce di Christine Lagarde pronta a copiare la Fed di Powell, falco tedesco Weidmann permettendo. bit.ly/3qWhdN6 #8luglio #COVID19 #Covid @business
1/In attesa BCE++++Profondo rosso a Piazza Affari: raffica di catalyst negativi scatena sell-off su tutti i titoli del Ftse Mib. oltre -3% per Banco BPM e Bper. #Unicredit ai minimi due mesi, oltre -12% in ultimo mese +++bit.ly/36j8c7h VIA @titta_ferraro78 #StocksToWatch
2/Spread BTP-Bund 10 anni a 107, in rialzo di oltre +3% in attesa annuncio storico Bce. Tassi Bund in calo su scia tonfo tassi #Treasury post Fed bit.ly/36leV0l #bonds
Read 9 tweets
The Government response to the #SternReview was the #ClimateChangeAct: domestic action on #ClimateChange.

Its response to the #DasguptaReview starts with a promise on international biodiversity that HMG can't deliver. A better response would be to halt #nature's decline at home.
Of course, it should also commit to reducing the UK's #GlobalFootprint as a way to contribute to the international biodiversity crisis.
Next, the Review focuses on raising private finance. That's an excellent ambition & the Impact Fund is welcome.

But the top thing Gov can do to unlock finance is a commitment to halt nature's decline that's "long, loud and legal": a #StateofNature target in the #EnvironmentBill
Read 7 tweets
Forex Live 1/5: FX #options expiries for 14 Apr 10am NY cut
There are some sizable ones layered for #EURUSD closer towards 1.1900 but also near current levels, even for tomorrow, so that might attract price action with key resist seen closer towards 1.1990-00 region at the moment
Forex Live 2/5: That said, the dollar looks vulnerable across the board with 10-year #Treasury yields also sitting on the cusp of a soft bottom closer to 1.60%, so there's that to consider.

Going over to #USDJPY, that has seen the pair fall below 109.00 - where there are some
Forex Live 3/5: modest and chunky expiries seen this week.
Technically speaking, the break below 109.00 also sees the pair likely to push lower to test the 23 March low @ 108.40 so this just adds to the conviction.

All of that ties together with general dollar sentiment and how
Read 5 tweets
FTSE China A50 Index futures extend decline to 1%.
#StockMarket
Shanghai Composite Index -1%
Shenzhen Component Index -1.7%
ChiNext -2.4%.
Hang Seng Index -1.2%
#StockMarket #China ImageImage
The 10-year #Treasury note yield rose 5.6 basis points to 1.469% after ECB officials saw no need for drastic action to prevent bond yields from rising, as they felt changes to communications or maintaining the flexibility of its pandemic emergency purchase program: MarketWatch
Read 9 tweets
Why do young people leave quantitative trading 5 to 7 years in their career, and what's your advice for aspiring quantitative traders?
@CQFInstitute @RiskDotNet @icmacentre @RiskMinds
The burnout (losing interest in the job) and dropout(leaving the job) rates are stupendous.
#Quantitative Specialist Roles as they exist in the Dealing Room in the form of #Treasury, Brokerage, Fund Management, #Investment Management, #Portfolio #Asset Management, #Derivative Market Making, and various other Front -Office #Risk Roles are highly demanding jobs indeed!
Most of the traders are asked to take a mandatory leave of up to two weeks or more at financial institutions, so they can relax a bit by staying away from the financial markets.
Read 10 tweets
#threadseries

Nigerian Stock Market

The #equities market presents attractive opportunities for #investors in form of capital appreciation and dividend return given the low yield environment in the fixed income space.
#Nigerian stocks are currently undervalued and present an opportunity for growth in the short to medium term.
The current #ROI in the #equities market is positive with a YTD return at over 47.5% compared to the #inflation rate at 14.9%.
We believe #stocks in the #financial services (mostly #banks), ICT, and the #industrial sectors present strong prospects for growth given their resilience to the #economic recession.
Read 11 tweets
The London Economic
Home Politics
How the Tories normalised corruption – report

In the past, corruption brought down politicians. But today, it’s a business model.
T.J. Coles by T.J. Coles

Corruption used to be scandalous. Then it became par for the course:
the #Expenses Scandal (2009), LIBOR (2012), the #Panama Papers (2016), FinCEN (2020) etcetera.

But this time, it’s different. We’re in a #pandemic and lives are at stake. Instead of awarding contracts to experienced and reliable public companies,
the #Tory #government is looting the #Treasury and awarding its donors. It is doing so with almost no accountability or oversight. Tory-linked corporations

In 2009, #Labour established a #PPE stockpiling system, but the #Tories left it to rot.
Read 38 tweets
Given today's focus on #Treasury delivering a #GreenRecovery, here's a short thread on the 5 things I would be advising the Chancellor to do if I was still there. As an ex-Treasury official there will be too few ££s for some, but hopefully still ambitious.
thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/c…
#1 Dig what’s shovel ready: Target precious public funds at the things that will actually spark economic activity now. Focus should be on immediately deployable technologies, like energy efficiency measures, heat-pumps and EVs (not a diesel scrappage scheme).
#2 Try before you buy: In areas where strategic case not settled, announce series of large-scale pilots in regions where economic activity is most impacted by pandemic. Major hydrogen trials and industrial decarbonisation in key clusters are low-regret and politically attractive.
Read 6 tweets
Another canard currently doing the rounds is this whole, "Yields are low ergo public debt is no burden - and yields must STAY low or it WOULD quickly become one, far too heavy to bear" schtick.

#UST #Treasury #Fed #deficit 1/x
Clearly no-one understands the difference between real costs and virtual, financial ones.

The State's gross mishandling of the #coronavirus crisis has destroyed or impaired tremendous amounts of productive #capital - a loss which should neither be understated nor camouflaged 2/x
The fact that the gazillion new IOUs #UST has issued as a partial (and temporary) recompense for this will come with artificially low interest rates is absolutely NO cause for cheer: in fact, quite the converse. 3/x
Read 7 tweets
@VOLG_DE_DATA @wmiddelkoop 1) This is a very hard question to answer. US #gold has not been audited since the 1950's and there are rumours that much of the gold in Fort Knox has been replaced by fakes. Rob Kirby claims to "know folks who have copies of the original shipping docs".

marketoracle.co.uk/Article14996.h…
@VOLG_DE_DATA @wmiddelkoop 2) Hence the question to Q, with his interesting replay that the #US has the #gold and that it shall destroy the #FED.

What we know is that currently the #FED is printing dollars #Weimar style, which can be expected to result in #hyperinflation.
@VOLG_DE_DATA @wmiddelkoop 3) Alan Greenspan warned about this a while ago and talked about returning to the #gold standard. Remarkably, he mentioned the time before 1913, when the #FED was established:

marketslant.com/articles/green…
Read 9 tweets
Thus far, Treasury & RBA have shown a lack of imagination, the small scale of their actions indicating they didn't grasp the size of the crisis & were behind the game even as they announced their first steps. They've realised their mistake...
thenewdaily.com.au/finance/financ… ...but the
big question now is how far they are prepared to go tomorrow to correct it.
Do they have both the imagination and nerve to make the big leap to instill a some confidence by getting ahead?
Odds are RBA will be predictable and mimsy - 25 points and QE bond buying. That's not...
getting ahead by any means. It's housekeeping. Linked to in today's piece above is this September story thenewdaily.com.au/finance/financ… about the prescient report by prominent former central bankers about the challenge of the next crisis - this crisis - when...
Read 5 tweets
The @federalreserve has announced its decision to reinstate funding facilities for #CommercialPaper (CP) this morning, which we expected it was likely to have to do.
That’s because the #financial plumbing system has been challenged. A case in point: #volatility in overnight funding #markets was on display yesterday, with the intraday trading range for #Treasury general collateral a remarkable 300 basis points (-0.25% to 2.75%).
The overarching theme in the #funding space is a simple lack of balance sheet capacity - primary #dealers are being stretched, and while general collateral has been #trading in a more orderly manner this morning we’re still trading at a wide spread to #IOER.
Read 4 tweets
Reading all these calls for ‘stimulus’, one wonders, if Constantine XI had had a ‘technology we call the printing press’ would his city not have fallen to the besieging Ottomans in 1453.
Shame he hadn’t heard of Gutenberg’s newly invented gizmo...
#Fed #UST #coronavirus #ECB
“The bad news, Tommy, iss for your ze war iss over. Ze good is, your RAF has parachuted in a packet of £5 notes to ease your captivity”
#coronavirus #stimulus #centralbanks #HelicopterMoney
Imagine if, during the Berlin Airlift, General Lucius Clay had not bothered flyng in food and fuel, but had just dropped Greenbacks.

You think Stalin might have chuckled?
#stimulus #coronavirus #COVID2019 #centralbanks #fiscal
Read 9 tweets
The mother of all QEs is here - @federalreserve has announced:
a. Interest rate cut by 100bps to 0% - 0.25%
b. Emergency lending rate cut by 125 basis points to 0.25%,
c. Increased the emergency lending term of loans to 90 days.

#USD #FEDrate
#QE5

(1/n)
d. Buying of $500 BN of Treasurys and $200 BN of agency-backed mortgage securities.
e. Pushed major banks to use the equity + liquid buffers ($1.3 TN + $2.9 TN) for lending and manage credit expansion.
Instantly, eight largest U.S. banks (Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, State Street, and Wells Fargo) have suspended share buybacks program to support the Fed's idea of credit expansion.

#bankofamerica #CITIBANK
Read 6 tweets
Recent actions by the @federalreserve have been awe-inspiring; I’m not sure what words would be stronger than that- but they’re required.
The #Fed has gotten at interest #rates, the #mortgage market, the financing markets, and the #Treasury market (and particularly the functioning of the off-the-run-issues).
Specifically, tonight we’ve seen an historic 100 basis point #policy rate cut (and a commitment to maintain it until conditions normalize), #bank borrowing from the discount window cut 150 bps, to 0.25%, with term #funds to be offered…
Read 8 tweets
Not to root for state or CB intervention, with #coronavirus, its inevitability must be faced. So how to make it the least damaging and not allow it to become entrenched in the system and lead to another decade of distortion & waste like post-#GFC? 1/x
Problem is to try to avoid the failure of otw viable firms because of disruptions due to the global health emergency - & also to spare their employees from ruin. Flooding money into financial markets is NOT the answer, #JayPowell! Blind fiscal expansion, neither, #DonaldTrump 2/x
Here's the kernel of an idea. Finmarkets are desperate for 'safe assets'. nominal yields are trifling; real ones negative. S-o-o, launch a special series of #Treasury bonds to sate the market's hunger & halt the potentially disastrous collapse in yields. 3/x
Read 11 tweets
Clearly, #markets are in the midst of a #volatility spike, and indeed economic data for a time will be more #volatile and less certain, but at times like this it’s particularly important for investors to think hard about those factors that matter most to markets.
As such, next of our 8 @blackrock blog themes are: 3) that “1.8%” can still be a guidepost for understanding the trajectory of #economy and #markets in 2020, assuming #coronavirus risk can be mitigated; and 4) #inflation may see its best post-crisis year, but not exceed 2%.
More specifically, we think U.S. real #GDP growth and core #inflation are likely poised to stabilize near longer-run averages of roughly 1.8% this year, but clearly significant left-tail risks to global growth have increased.
Read 8 tweets
In the context of slowing U.S. #economic growth and moderately higher #inflation figures (at least through the year’s first half), alongside political risks both domestic and international, we think the 10-Year U.S. #Treasury yield is unlikely to exceed 2.25% this year.
And while modestly higher #inflation may be spurred by base-effects and a weaker #USD in 2020, as well as by #oil prices that could trade near the higher end of our 2020 estimated $50 to $75/bbl range for a time, the structural drivers of lower prices remain intact, in our view. Image
In 2020, the average U.S. labor #market growth rate will likely be slower than last year’s average, but simultaneously, #wage growth should be higher in 2020 than it was in 2019 and the #Fed will remain on hold through the year, barring serious economic shock.
Read 3 tweets
‘Tis the season of prognostication, and in an age of one-word answers to complex questions, we’ve also witnessed a great deal of #hedged-language #forecasts ending in the suffix “ish,” so not to be outdone, we’d say that 2020 is looking rather 1.8ish!
What on Earth could this mean? We would suggest, firstly; that rather than seeing a calamitous #recession in 2020, or a strong cyclical resurgence of #growth, we instead think that real #GDP growth is likely to moderate slightly to around 1.8%, its average level since 2005. Image
Further, over the next year, we think that #CorePCE #inflation may firm somewhat to around 1.8%, which is just above the average level for the measure over the past 15 years. Image
Read 5 tweets
#Gambia takes on #Myanmar in the #Hague @CIJ_ICJ on day 1 of 3, with statements accusing nation of #Genocide against #Rohingyas & on same day, the #US imposed #sanctions on 4 high-ranking #military personnel including the chief usnews.com/news/world/art… treasury.gov/resource-cente…
#US #Treasury explains its actions to impose additional #sanctions on selected #Myanmar #military leaders because the "military have committed serious #HumanRights #abuse" against #ethnic communities including those in #Rakhine #Kachin #Shan home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…
#US Treasury adds "such #abuses and the continuing #impunity must stop" to enable nation to transition to a more secure, democratic, peaceful nation. Notes that "#HumanRights #abuse undermines the ability to realize the vision for a free & open #IndoPacific" shared with #ASEAN
Read 3 tweets
We’ve argued that understanding the dynamics of total global #liquidity is more important than merely focusing on central bank #rate moves, yet when it comes to both rates and liquidity measures, global central banks have made an important pivot toward #PragmaticEquilibrium. Image
Indeed, we estimate the peak-to-trough contraction in our measure of total global #liquidity was about $1.6 trillion over a span of nearly 20 months, and that corresponded to a flattening in the U.S. #Treasury curve and growing anxiety about growth prospects.
However, we estimate that between now and the end of 2020, the @federalreserve will inject near another $350 billion, the #ECB another $250 billion, and should global FX reserve growth remain steady as it has, it will represent another $350 billion in liquidity growth.
Read 5 tweets

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