Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #volatility

Most recents (24)

Wild #crypto #bull and #bear market idea thread:

There won’t be much bear market anymore like we saw back in 2010-2019; why?

1. Too many people know this #digital #asset now; with 1% high net worth will do anything in their power to buy the dip (ask their fin. advisor)
2. #Bitcoin become real reserve in many companies and few small countries now, ok, it can dip down even to 20-30k still in the future with bad news and regulations
3. With 2. if #BTC drawdown a lot from now (45-50k range), #altcoin will take hits too; of course, with bad #shitcoin they will likely drop 40-99%. pick your asset carefully! but the winner will retain value; 20-50% drop may happen; #HODL! if it's good #fundamental!
Read 9 tweets
Many students doing basic mathematics cannot distinguish between #iteration, #simulation, and #emulation as different methods of experiment design.
Even further surprised why so many students don't know the similarity and the difference between computation and calculation.
These are some of the basic mistakes which one, embedded into the mind, will work their way right into a workplace and destroy our educational foundations
For, e.g. when I was teaching Introduction to FRM Financial Risk Management, I noticed many students thought they are three different types of VaR - Value at Risk.
What they didn't realize is that VaR can be computed using different models aka methodologies, namely, HS, VCV, MCS.
Read 10 tweets
Is this Unanticipated or Anticipated Inflation Risk?
This is what economists need to explain to us!
We knew it was coming due to the reflationary policy stance of central banks in the first world, and elsewhere.
But, the augmented rate was not unexpected.
But, this is not the 1970s, when oil price shocks, and other supply-side macroeconomic and microeconomic distortions of the postwar years raised the inflation rate unexpectedly to astronomical heights.
I don't see any massive stagflation developing due to technological gains.
Yes, the "PHILLIPS CURVE" is officially deceased.
won't return again!
Monetarists and some other schools of thought have created hues and cries of the return of the economic phantom, but, no, it won't happen.
Prices and #Unemployment have been disentangled.
Read 9 tweets
This comes from TX gov's letter to the local PUC in light of a stressed electrical #grid & it is so scientifically uninformed! A 🧵on #reliability in the #electricity sector... -1/n
Reliability is the behavior of an asset according to what is built to do w/o "breaking". Wind turbines & photovoltaics (WT+PV) are reliable when they generate according to blowing wind & shining sun. They are unreliable when a WT blade breaks or PV get hot-spots. -2/n
In other words WT+PV #volatility has nothing to do w/ reliability. Pushing the "volatility=reliability" narrative is unscientific, if not plain bad use of the language we all agree upon to communicate w/. -3/n
Read 6 tweets
Everyone Bought the Dip on 14 Jun?

Did you to Bought it ?
The So called #AdaniBlip is a signal "Honey Moon" is bout to get over. There is more on Cards #Inflation as party pooper #BullRally.

DO u have an Exit Plan Ready ?
Why in World Jp Morgan be Sitting on 500 Billion USD ?

GO Read -…

What Sense you can make out of that ?
Read 23 tweets
Super excited to see our paper on #Covid19 #Fiscal Support and its Effectiveness, with Alexander Chudik @DallasFed & @mraissi80 @IMFNews, out in Economics Letters. You can read it (free access) from here: #TGVAR 1/n Image
With new variants/waves & reimposition of restrictions in some regions, governments around the world are calling for a careful assessment of the effectiveness of the adopted #Covid19 #fiscal measures before they embark on further easing or tailoring of measures 2/n
The #Covid19 pandemic led to a sharp tightening of global #financial conditions at the acute phase of the crisis and has inflicted large economic losses across the world (see Figure below) ... 3/n Image
Read 28 tweets
With the $VIX currently around 17, some would argue it's getting low. Some may even be tempted to start buying things like $VXX and $UVXY in anticipation of the next #volatility spike (I can't say don't, but... don't)

But is a VIX of 17 actually below average?
With the long term VIX "mean" of 19.46, it seems pretty clear we're well below average right now.

Mean: The average of a set of numbers. You just add the values up, divide by the # of values, and that's the mean.

Example: 3, 3, 4, 6, 9

Mean = (3 + 3 + 4 + 6 + 9) / 25 = 5
But we could argue that the "Median" is more useful.

Median: The middle number in a series of numbers

In our example, the median of 3, 3, 4, 6, 9 = 4

The Long-term Median of the VIX is 17.44
Read 9 tweets
Net thread Inshallah ->
What is the difference between the value at risk (VaR) and the conditional value at risk (CVaR)?
Value - at - Risk is the purported worst-case loss under normal circumstances/market conditions developed using a computational technique and further specific modelling assumptions tailored as per the risk reporting requirements of a Trading / Investment Desk.
But I tend to disagree with the term WCL - (the Worst Case Loss), as mostly used by some authors in the field of FRM - Financial Risk Management.
Read 36 tweets
UBS 1/4: Don't expect the #volatility lull to last.
Wall Street’s most prominent gauge of investor anxiety, #VIX index of implied stock #volatility, closed at a fresh pandemic-era low near 16.7 last week. But we see reasons to expect periodic bouts of higher volatility near term
UBS 2/4: First, investors are likely to be torn between optimism over accelerating growth and worries over higher inflation. Second, optimism over the course of the pandemic is being tested by the spread of new variants of the virus.
UBS 3/4: Finally, we expect volatility to be driven by increased institutional and retail activity in the options market, along with the increased share of growth stocks in major indexes. However, investors can take advantage of this backdrop.
Read 4 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 01/22/2021…
‘A Total Failure’: The Proud Boys Now Mock Trump…

Read 8 tweets

Some of our most reviewed #ResolveRiffs episodes of 2020...

Thank you our friends and followers!

@RPARETF creators Alex Shahidi & Damien Bisserier
Navigating an Impossible Market with Chris Schindler…
Read 14 tweets
Best tweets of the year: Part 1 of 3.
(a thread)
"Assets produce income whether you work or not."
-- Robert Kiyosaki @theRealKiyosaki

"You are rich if you wouldn’t change your lifestyle if you got richer."
-- Orange Book @orangebook_

#life #wealth
Read 17 tweets

Began tweeting actively this March & this came as a pleasant surprise to me .
Thank you so much everyone for 5k! 🙂🙏

I have varied interests & my threads are on random topics .
Consolidating a few that I think are worthy to make the list.



A thread on my journey till date in the world of markets and investing, mostly highlighting my mistakes as a beginner .


*On owning a house *

Having your own space is a dream for all of us .
But is it worth taking an exorbitant loan early on ?

Read 17 tweets
📈 The Real Vision Daily Briefing 📉

DJI ⬆️ 1.37%
S&P ⬆️ 1.36%
NASDAQ ⬆️ 1.02%
S&P 500 $MGM $VLO $CCL @JackFarley96 #JackHollywoodFarley
Read 7 tweets
Often hear salaried people complaining about volatility being the reason they stay away from markets .
IMHO I feel #volatility is not risk . It's actually an opportunity to be capitalised upon sensibly .
( T&C being applicable as always*)
A few pointers on the same.
* Being salaried helps immensely as one gets a fixed sum of money monthly . Less uncertainty of cash inflows aids in better decision making as we don't resort in knee jerk reactions .

* With proper planning one can keep aside money to invest systematically in markets.
* In the event of a sudden melt down we won't be forced to sell our holdings for want of money for next month's expenses.

* Thereby , we ensure we do not interrupt the process of #compounding . Otherwise, one is forced to sell even good stocks for want of money . 🤷
Read 8 tweets
As we head into the U.S. #election, there will continue to be a lot of noise that may lead to near-term #market #volatility, particularly since (as we’ve long argued) #markets appear to be able to only focus on one thing at a time!
Still, at times like this it’s crucial to focus on more consequential factors that will drive #markets in the years ahead: in this case, the powerful combination of @federalreserve #monetarypolicy and #fiscal rescue measures intended to keep the #economic engine on track.
So, while many will continue to be skeptical of the sustainability of this #economic recovery, we’ve been impressed by its strength, particularly in the #interest-rate-sensitive segments of the #economy, like #housing, which is going through the roof!
Read 8 tweets
I am humbled and privilleged to note that my #Research paper; "Sources of #Unemployment in #Lesotho" is now available and can be accessed via the People's Republic of #China's National #Science and #Technology #Library - #NSTL. I give thanks 😎 Image
So far this year, I have successfully published three #Research articles in #Macroeconomics & #Finance, with another two in press. I am currently hammering away at a handful of working papers which will most certainly find a home in reputable #Journals, come 2021 🙏🏽🙂 Image
Im currently internalising the very insightful reviewer comments on my latest #Research paper titled; "Investigating Determinants of Commercial Bank Spreads in #Lesotho", from the good folks over at the globally reputable #International #Journal of #Finance & #Economics #IJFE 😊 ImageImage
Read 52 tweets
What are the implications of excess global financial market volatility on economic growth? Are there threshold effects in the relationship between growth & excess global volatility for individual countries? How should we model the nonlinear effects in a multi-country setting? 1/n
We answer these questions in recent work with Alexander Chudik @DallasFed, M Hashem Pesaran @USCDornsife @TrinCollCam, @mraissi80 @IMFNews & @arebucci1 @JHUCarey @cepr_org @nberpubs:… #TGVAR 2/n
The #Covid19 #pandemic has been a shock like no other, initiating simultaneous demand and supply disruptions. In addition, it led to a sharp tightening in global #financial market conditions during the first quarter of 2020. 3/n Image
Read 23 tweets
In a recent paper, with Alexander Chudik @DallasFed, M Hashem Pesaran @USCDornsife, @mraissi80 @IMFNews & @arebucci1 @JHUCarey, we develop a threshold-augmented dynamic multi-country model (#TGVAR) to quantify the #macroeconomic effects of #Covid19:… 1/n Image
Key challenges with the empirical #economic analysis of #Covid19 include the following: how to identify the shock, how to account for its non-linear effects, & how to quantify its effects while accounting for spillovers, common global factors, network effects and uncertainty. 2/n
We contribute to the literature by addressing these issues in a coherent multi-country framework. We offer an identification strategy for the #Covid19 shock considering that a synthetic control method cannot be applied in the context of a global #pandemic. 3/n
Read 23 tweets
Head of Asia Pacific, Grant Wilson on RISK PARITY: It has been presented as an alternative to the classic 60/40 allocation b/w equities & bonds. (Thread 1/8). Originally featured as an opinion piece in @FinancialReview
2/8: Risk Parity equalizes contributions to risk from different asset classes in portfolio. Typically targets #volatility for portfolio as whole, in range of 10-15%. Equity, bonds, & other sector allocations derived based on measures of expected return/risk/correlation.
3/8: Risk parity has become synonymous with an ‘all weather’ portfolio. In March, #COVID19 roiled financial markets & we saw the short-comings of this slogan.
Read 9 tweets
A historic shift in the vol regime, 3 Things You Need to Know here:…

#Volatility Image

VIX: +66%
Nasdaq: +38%
Gold: +29%
S&P 500: +9%
Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0%

Via @BearTrapsReport Image
2020 Returns

Large Caps: +11%
Medium Caps: -2%
Small Caps: -15%

In recent weeks, there's been a massive buyer of Tech sector upside calls - call spreads across a basket of stocks. Over $1B of premium spent and upwards of $20B in notional through strikes. See above, important.
Read 4 tweets
#Bollingerbands (Threads to understand & It's actual use)

( Practical use)

*We all know that #BB is give us volatility of stock.
* It works on standard deviation principle
* Price always wave between Upper and Lower band.
* It is always said that use #volatility contraction .
*After Volatility contraction price , move in quicker way.
* To identify this #volatility contraction, we use #BB

Examples show that round is volatility contraction. Price stuck in range and volatility is cooled off.
but , how to identify that volatility is really contracted?
many false signal will be generated.

So here is the secret.
Dont just trap in just #Bollingerbands

I am sharing secret to use it with #ketlner Channel
Read 10 tweets
#Traders path #Futures & #Options

1: Understanding the game

Trading is not much different from playing poker game or betting on various other things.

It’s just a structured game where rules are not made by anyone, but needs to be followed by everyone in game.
Understanding those rules and adjusting yourself is a continuous process which will never end. As #SEBI would keep on changing rules.

The important thing to understand is any thing in life if we want to succeed we need patience and dedication.
A 2 hour webinar or 2 day course can’t teach you about #CapitalMarkets or #Trading it’s impossible.

Personally i feel have around 40-50% knowledge about capital markets after more than 12years of trading experience.
Read 15 tweets

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