Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #volatility

Most recents (24)

Head of Asia Pacific, Grant Wilson on RISK PARITY: It has been presented as an alternative to the classic 60/40 allocation b/w equities & bonds. (Thread 1/8). Originally featured as an opinion piece in @FinancialReview
2/8: Risk Parity equalizes contributions to risk from different asset classes in portfolio. Typically targets #volatility for portfolio as whole, in range of 10-15%. Equity, bonds, & other sector allocations derived based on measures of expected return/risk/correlation.
3/8: Risk parity has become synonymous with an ‘all weather’ portfolio. In March, #COVID19 roiled financial markets & we saw the short-comings of this slogan.
Read 9 tweets
Thread (1/10)

❓What did we do yesterday?

Nothing much! We went about our business as usual & cast away the #MondayBlues!

Just check our comparison between trades given out yesterday and the results in the forthcoming tweets to understand the power of #Research & #Analysis Image
Thread (2/10)

A look at each and every picture reveals a story. A story of all round excellence in #EquityAnalysis.

The #IntradayTrades section highlights our ability to withstand #Negativity and #Volatility in the #ShareMarket to deliver returns to our clients. 💰💸 Image
Thread (3/10)

The #PositionalTrades Section highlights how a trade given by us will achieve its target!

Slowly, yet surely! 🚀 Image
Read 11 tweets
#Bollingerbands (Threads to understand & It's actual use)

( Practical use)

*We all know that #BB is give us volatility of stock.
* It works on standard deviation principle
* Price always wave between Upper and Lower band.
* It is always said that use #volatility contraction .
*After Volatility contraction price , move in quicker way.
* To identify this #volatility contraction, we use #BB

Examples show that round is volatility contraction. Price stuck in range and volatility is cooled off.
but , how to identify that volatility is really contracted?
many false signal will be generated.

So here is the secret.
Dont just trap in just #Bollingerbands

I am sharing secret to use it with #ketlner Channel
Read 10 tweets
#Traders path #Futures & #Options

1: Understanding the game

Trading is not much different from playing poker game or betting on various other things.

It’s just a structured game where rules are not made by anyone, but needs to be followed by everyone in game.
Understanding those rules and adjusting yourself is a continuous process which will never end. As #SEBI would keep on changing rules.

The important thing to understand is any thing in life if we want to succeed we need patience and dedication.
A 2 hour webinar or 2 day course can’t teach you about #CapitalMarkets or #Trading it’s impossible.

Personally i feel have around 40-50% knowledge about capital markets after more than 12years of trading experience.
Read 15 tweets
Okay #volatility twitter and #pensions twitter, the #AIMCo post mortem on their VOLatility Trading Strategy (VOLTS) program was released last week. aimco.ca/insights/volts…

@bennpeifert @choffstein @profplum99 @PensionPulse
If you work in financial technology development/implementation please use this as motivation for your painful, but vital work

"The limitations of the risk system had previously been recognized, and its replacement had been identified and was in the process of being implemented"
A risk system is hard to implement because it needs fresh data feeds to all the live positions and prices. It is less hard to do a snapshot risk assessment and to react to its findings. Blaming technology is problematic here.
Read 7 tweets
Missed Friday, but I'm back with the daily #chart, with commentary by @reutersMikeD in the thread below. This one is global #COVID19 cases versus the #VIX #volatility index. Volatility has shot up in the last few days, amid a rising number of #infections in Beijing and the U.S.
It shows there really is still nothing more important for macro markets than the trajectory of the virus and shows super sensitivity to any rise infections associated with economies reopening - there was always likely to be some quid pro quo between people returning to work/...
...school/shops/big gatherings and rising infections - we now face the test of this over the coming weeks and market volatility gauges more than cash indices are the real relfection of that trepidation. Whatever governments do to respond may be trumped by a rise in public fear of
Read 7 tweets
#Day #Trading #Options

#Basic Concept - options day trading focuses only on the underlying #mathematics. It does not rely on any #financial predictions, company results, or market direction.
A #realistic approach is to take advantage of occasional pricing inefficiencies that arise in the #options market.
These #distortions can be related to #earnings announcements, expiry week, weekend #theta decay, intraday implied #volatility swings, differences between overnight and #intraday volatility, or news and #rumors.
Read 22 tweets
So how important is RSI DIVERGENCE? Very!! Check charts for #SP500, #Oil, #EURUSD (all neg. divergence) and for #Volatility (pos. divergence) - and you tell me! 👍#HZupdates
Then take a look at this chart for #XAUUSD #Gold. Massive neg. divergence - even stronger the last 5 months as it rallies in massive RISING WEDGE. Tell me again, that Gold cannot crash!
May also add.... Gold sentiment at 91!
Read 3 tweets
1/ I figured I would continue these Sunday threads during our current market and social conditions. I wanted to expand today on why I look at the implied/realized #volatility relationship.
2/ As those that are following me, I have been posting the following chart below about the current implied ( $VIX) /realized ( $SPX) vols, and it something I am keeping a keen eye on. The question is why?
3/ The following return chart explains. It captures the $SPX returns in each SLVC regime-which is related to the above relationship.
Read 11 tweets
#कोरोना_वायरस मुळे भारतात “Work From Home” हा मार्ग अवलंबला जात आहे. या निमित्तानेच आपण शेअर बाजारातील मूलभूत संकल्पना घरबसल्या समजून घेण्याचा प्रयत्न करू. त्यासाठी काही लेख मी या थ्रेडमधून पोस्ट करत आहे. फार विचार न करता पेपरमधील लेख निवांतपणे वाचतो तसे हे लेख वाचा.
#Thread
1
शेअर बाजार हे गुंतवणुकीचं एक माध्यम आहे. पण गुंतवणूक म्हणजे नेमकं काय? जाणून घेऊयात या पोस्टमध्ये!
#मराठी #गुंतवणूक #sharemarket #ब्लॉग #मराठी_गुंतवणूकदार

latenightedition.in/wp/?p=3445
2
शेअर मार्केट म्हणजे काय? शेअर बाजारात कोण गुंतवणूक करू शकतं?
#मराठी #गुंतवणूक #sharemarket #ब्लॉग
latenightedition.in/wp/?p=3447
Read 31 tweets
Let me now share my thoughts on Equity Investing. Though current Equity Market crisis is attributed to CORONA VIRUS; according to me it is a combination of both CORONA VIRUS as well as excesses of the Equity markets over past 3 years due to Bubbles created thru excess Liquidity.
#MutualFund Industry has given 3 Mantras: Buy and Hold, SIP Karo Bhool Jao and Do Not Time the Markets.
If Buy & Hold was working then how come Investors stay invested only for 2-3 years in Equity asset class? After some time, SIP portfolio is nothing but Lump Sum.
It is #VOLATILITY which is becoming enemy of #Investors instead of it being their Friend. In fact, wealth is created through SIP, STP & Asset Allocation only because markets are Volatile. Will anyone adopt above strategies if markets were linear?
Read 15 tweets
Australia’s main stock index closed today below 5400 for the first time since Nov 2016 (dividend adjusted). @911CORLEBRA777 @chrizap
This article was published yesterday:
How low can we go? S&P/ASX 200 could hit 5500 before carnage ends smh.com.au/money/investin… via @smh
Since this is a 5-year chart on free Bloomberg site (ya girl can’t justify paying for full data access anymore), it doesn’t show daily close prices, which is why today’s close isn’t on the chart. So I drew it in. Take that in, okay peeps?
Today’s intraday low was 5,290. The intraday high in the last 52 weeks = 7,197.20, which was on Feb 19, 2020. That’s a swing of over 26% in index valuation in exactly 3 weeks.
#volatility
Read 6 tweets
Analysis: #NASDAQ $CODX

Case 196 #Co_Diagnostics Inc.

DISCLAIMER: The analysis is strictly for educational purposes and should not be construed as an invitation to trade.

#CODX 1/4
Chart 1
Weekly Chart: The move above 6.69 has seen a huge increase in #volatility with price reaching a new all time high of 21.75. Price has since reacted violently and fell towards the 6.60 - 5.70 support zone. A break and .....

CODX 2/4
..... close above 17.81 is now required to re-target the all time high and then the main objective 24.80. Good #support seen at 6.70 - 5.30 followed by 3.50 then 1.92.

CODX 3/4
Read 4 tweets
US has 11 deaths from #Coronavirus this is far higher than 154 cases would suggest (Korea 35 deaths from 5,600 cases. FR+DE+SP = 6 deaths from c. 800 cases)

I am using 50m+ pop countries with great healthcare to compare

@Barton_options @GlennLuk @Bovell_GM

1/N
This reminds me of...

Iran 2 weeks ago...

There were about 10 deaths in Iran and apparently 50 cases. ViruTwit correctly said 'no way is that possible unless virus has mutated to a far more lethal strain'.

There is zero evidence the virus has mutated in Iran.

2/N
ViruTwit knew the number in cases in Iran was far (far far) higher, and of course we know what happened next.

Case numbers exploded, and they are still most likely hugely underestimating the numbers as they are unfortunately overwhelmed :/

3/N
Read 21 tweets
1/ Today’s thread will be on the TVRP #volatility metric. Again, it will show historical performance, 2019 performance, where it did well and poorly, and why. The threads on SLVC and FGI are linked. Cumulative performance since 1990 shown below.

2/ What is TVRP? The Time Varying Risk Premium (TVRP) is a measure that calculates the long-term risk aversion of the market place using equity prices and implied volatility. It is a long-term measure of risk.
3/ NEUTRAL represent normal periods of investor risk aversion. Returns for $SPX are distributed normally and behave predictably. CONCERN represent an inflection point for investor risk aversion where normality in returns starts to break down.
Read 15 tweets
1/ Yesterday’s thread was on SLVC (posted below) today will be on FGI. Again, today’s thread will show historical performance, 2019 performance, where it did well and poorly, and why. Cumulative performance since 1990 shown below.

2/ What is FGI? The Fear vs Greed Index (FGI) is a measure that calculates a monthly relative sentiment in the market place using information from the option markets and the amount of open interest in call and put options. It is a medium-term measure of risk
3/ GREED reflects too much risk taken on by investors and may indicate a future #volatility shock or $SPX price reversion. FEAR may show too much risk aversion in the market place and #volatility should mean revert and/or a price recovery will take place.
Read 13 tweets
1/ AS always, I present my metrics #YEARinREVIEW. Today I will present evidence on the SLVC (Short vs Long-Term Volatility Concern) #volatility metric. The thread will show historical performance, 2019 performance, and discuss where it did well and poorly, and why.
2/ / First a review. Short vs Long-Term Volatility Concern (SLVC) is a measure that calculates the monthly mispricing of volatility risk versus jump risk using information from both the equity and option markets. It is short-term measure of risk
3/ The measure gives a potential likelihood of a shock in both price and volatility and thus presents a one-sided measure of risk. It is broken into 4 distinct segments/decisions. 1.) LONG VOL 2.) SHORT VOL 3.) CHEAP 4.) EXPENSIVE.
Read 14 tweets
#Straddles vs #Strangles ( Sell only )

These are the most common #Options strategies when one would start with #OptionsTrading.

Let’s understand from a broader perspective what’s the difference between these two.
Would not like to discuss the construction difference between them if you don’t know stop trading #options

#Straddles

You get higher premium so pnl would be higher compared to #strangles

But from where are you getting higher premiums is that your selling 0.5 #delta.
So probability of one going wrong is always 50% so to simply put one side is goin to get stuck in a #straddle but then market tends to #flucuate a lot so there is always the case of #meanreversion if you have selected the #strike rightly.
Read 14 tweets
#Option #Greeks Simplified

#Options are definitely more complicated than equity or futures.

Their prices don’t just go up and down.

They also fluctuate based on things like #time, #implied #volatility and #underlying stock movements.
#Options #Greeks Are Simply Mathematical Shortforms

Most of you would remember from school that mathematical formulas sometimes were #Greek letters like Pi and #Delta. The same is true for options.

Don’t let them overwhelm you or scare you.
They’re simply #mathematical words to explain some very basic principles.

#Greeks Describe the Behavior of #Individual #Options

Each #greek can help predict how it will behave under different circumstances and how options prices would change.
Read 22 tweets
#MetaphysicsOfQuality iⁿtrade:

• Fixed #RiskManagement is Percentage #StopLoss.
• Such a StopLoss is -100% of the initial MarginLevel Percentage.
• So #netting may appear at -50% of MarginLevel Percentage.
• Any #LEVERAGE just offers #DrawDown
kind of limited LOSS.
🔻
• A #lever on #fulcrum is
better than leverage!
• My #BreadthScreener™ is
not a BLACKBOX!
• It SPOTS the FULCRUM &
NABS the SHORT LEVER:
• The #BreadthScreener™ is a #non_forecasting,
#volatility-gauging,
#trading #system
#ConstantRisk #FixedRisk #Management SURVIVES!
🔻
• Since #practice precedes #theory,
#RiskManagement precedes #trading setups;
• Since theory doesn't make difference between theory & practice,
— Setups' forecasting don't forecast fail;
• Since practice makes the difference,
#FixedRisk precedes #TradingStrategy setups
🔻
Read 15 tweets
#mcmcharts

1/

50+ important charts coming today and imo the picture is clearing up for the short-term

lets start with $AAPL
2/

monetary aggregates and unemployment - still have not turned #SPX #M1 #M2
3/

$NYSE internals are constructive and confirmed last equities highs which suggests that new highs are likely and that those have a possibility to be unconfirmed
Read 61 tweets
Hey all! Attention if you are up for an update on my perspective on markets. Deflation and massive moves ahead! Stay tuned #HZupdates
Let's start with #CRB, which created a nice shooting star on weekly chart, and leaving gap open below. Wave "e" often overshoots trend-line only to turn hard the opposite direction. The likely coming decline in #CRB is deflationary #HZupdates
This week we had an #Oil crisis according to some analysts. It played out on Monday😄Like #CRB, #Oil is consolidating in a sideway-consolidation (wave B) before a strong move lower. Target in Ending Diagonal remains <20USD. This will be secular bottom. First #deflation #HZupdates
Read 14 tweets
1/
Currently we have a chicken fight. #Trump ,Kudlow, and Navarro are on one side, and either, China or the Fed is the other. The U.S and world economies are in the middle. China has no incentive to swerve and #Trump, based on his past history, will happily stay the course and
2/

go bankrupt. Why do you ask...because it isn't his money, and it is the only way he knows how. So the #Fed is in a really tough spot...being the only adult in the room. So the question is this...
3/
Does the Fed cave knowing the potential long-term damage (think bubbles...p.s don't @ me about bubbles) to sooth over this period...hoping to make it to 2020...or does it ride it out...hoping to make it to 2020.
Read 8 tweets

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