Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #volatility

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🧵 #FOMC Trade Thread 🧵

How To Trade #FOMC $SPY $SPX



This strategy has made 60-140+ POINT MOVES in $SPX which equates to around $5-$15 Moves in $SPY ITSELF! 🚀
There is 1 way on how to trade this strategy and to also state #FOMC is very risky to trade with #SPY #SPX #Options due to the #volatility
Read 10 tweets
The relationship between the #EthereumMerge and #DeFi is a fascinating case study for a changing economic ecosystem.💎

And @variantfund's Twitter Space dove deep into how the #merge affects #DeFi.✨

Here is the summarized version:👇
The space was conducted by @variantfund and @eulerfinance.⚡

@spencernoon, @gham1lt0n and @Derekmw23 represented Variant.💰

@MacroMate8, or Seraphim, the head of risk at Euler, was the Euler side's representative.👑

@variantfund @eulerfinance @spencernoon @gham1lt0n @Derekmw23 @MacroMate8 @MacroMate8 first laid out what the long-term focus of @eulerfinance would be.👀

Euler will focus more on #Oracle technology to improve smart contracts.💎

This is why the #Euler team has added @chainlink support to the ecosystem.🤝

Read 13 tweets
🤏 Mind the GAP!
(Automatic Intraday GAP Overnight) | by Octopu$

🧵 #Thread! Click to expand:
Gaps are areas on a chart where the price of a stock moves sharply up or down, with little or no trading in between.
When it happens overnight (not considering Extended Hours), it is just considered as Price Level, for possible revisit.

A Gap is when the Open current Candle is Higher or Lower than the Close of the Last Candle:

Open of the current Candle is Higher than the Close of the Last Candle? It is a Gap UP.
Open of the current Candle is Lower than the Close of the Last Candle?It is a Gap DOWN.
Read 11 tweets
🧵 #FOMC Trade Thread 🧵

How To Trade #FOMC $SPY $SPX

This strategy has made 60-140+ POINT MOVES in $SPX which equates to around $5-$15 Moves in $SPY ITSELF! 🚀
There is 1 way on how to trade this strategy and to also state #FOMC is very risky to trade with #SPY #SPX #Options due to the #volatility
Read 9 tweets
The LTCM Crisis taught #Quants one thing in common.
Never trust the risk pricing/hedging models blindly.
The Black Scholes option model assumptions and the Value at Risk Metric both failed miserably.
The liquidity assumptions of the #VaR Model provided a false sense of security.
The most worrying thing is that if #LTCM which was a hedge fund managed by two @NobelPrize winners in Economics could not get things right, then what should one expect from humble risk practitioners like myself!?
imagine the amount of risk that is concealed by Black Box Models.
Always backtest and stress test your #risk models.
Not just the mathematical components, but also the semantics, the #hermeneutics, the syntax that is used for coding the automata, and the symbols which are shown on the analytical dashboard.
It is a big #CON industry at work!
Read 9 tweets
I know you guys missed me, so here is a short mini series of threads about #volatility. Let's dive right in 😎 #OptionsTrading #trading Image
1- Let’s start by defining what volatility is. It’s simply how often something moves up/down and how big these moves are. If something moves up/down a lot, it means volatility = high. Something that doesn’t move that much, it means volatility = low.
2- The best two candidates I found for this example are $GME to $WBA (since they are very close in price). Can you tell which one is more volatile? Image
Read 8 tweets
1/10: Options are complex. How are we making it easy for everyone? A 🧵:
#Options #NFTs #Crypto #DeFi #GameFi #P2E #Trading #OptionsTrading #Volatility #Sustainability
2/10: We’ve seen the DeFi implosion driven by unsustainable yield farming and leverage, and the collapse of P2E GameFi built on ponzinomics. What if P2E was driven by proven real world market activities? Cue GameFi backed by Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) Options aka PokPok Protocol
3/10: When you purchase a PAYG option, you only pay a small % of the premium upfront, and fund the rest over the option's life. You can default and save the remaining funds if you decide you've made a wrong call. This SAVES you $$$.
Read 10 tweets
Today's #MacroView is out. Why today isn't 1982 and Jerome Powell isn't Paul Volker.…
The road to 1982 didn’t start in 1980. The buildup of #inflation started long before the #ArabOil Embargo. Economic growth, wages, and savings rates catalyzed “demand push” inflation.… Image
Furthermore, the Government ran no deficit, and household debt to net worth was about 60%. So, while #inflation increased and interest #rates rose, the average household could sustain their living standard.… Image
Read 5 tweets
We've had a fairly substantial week a lot of #priceaction #volatility and don't forget more important we had the #FOMC which fairly well documented. I just wanted to recap on the Fed's meeting and my thoughts with this flood so let's crack on with it. 👋 ++
Fed's policy isn't restrictive yet it's at the neutral rate and we're pretty much at the neutral rate restrictive policy is pushing up into territory or territory that we know historically have caused something to break. ++
We've already covered the 50 75 basis points so the question you want to be asking yourself is heading into September's #FOMC what if #inflation remain high and it's persistent what will the #Fed do are they going to come out and slap 100 basis point rate act on the table. ++
Read 11 tweets
GTON Capital: reimagining the #utility and #scalability of #Web3

1/⚜️ The @GtonCapital team is building an ecosystem of innovative web3 infrastructure and products by synergizing the best achievements of decentralized web technology a brave little baby is expl...
2/⚜️ The vision of the $GTON team presents a new phase in the evolution of the #cryptocurrency landscape, with decentralized #stablecoins and scalable #smartcontract execution layers at its core, enabling millions of #dApps to improve the lives of billions of users
3/⚜️ We are currently facing a "Cambrian explosion" of alt-L1 and L2 protocols, #DeFi dApps and #NFT, #GameFi and X2Earn business models, and #Metaverses
Read 17 tweets
YCharts recently caught up with @brianferoldi & @Brian_Stoffel_ to discuss "Everything Wrong With The P/E Ratio" & we learned some great insights on alternative valuation metrics that we’re excited to share. Let's take a look at $NFLX as an example:

🧵 1/8
The PE ratio isn't always appropriate for every company during its growth cycle. Let's look at $NFLX, a known disruptor company with humble beginnings. The company experienced hyper-growth, before finally maturing into the household name we all recognize today.

Because the PE ratio doesn’t factor in future growth potential, it’s not the best ratio to use in the early days of companies like $NFLX. For example, the chart below shows #Netflix’s PE ratio in orange during infancy, a whopping 1459.79. Why?

Read 8 tweets
Ehi there #Crypto and #macro Twitter

Time for #market analysis #Number12!

"Quiet, before the storm"

I will explain here what happened since last week, and cover the broader #economy as it breaks

I will start from #onchain #BTC, going into #Technical Analysis + #macro🧵
First of all, if you want to have a deeper insight in what happened the week before, you should check my last #weekly #analysis

I'll put the link here for you:

But let's start digging into this week, should we?
Last week we experienced a rally in #crypto with #Eth leading the way with a speculative date on the merge happening on September 19th.

BTC managed to rally breaking the trendline at resistance and the realized price, but failed to maintain those as support ImageImageImage
Read 23 tweets
Many investors are wondering if they should shift their #equitymutualfund SIPs to debt investment options, as they watch the markets stew in #volatility. Well, we crunched some numbers and here’s what we think: (1/5)
Shifting #SIP investments to debt products temporarily provides capital protection, but also results in poor yields. You might end up with a smaller corpus, if you follow this strategy. (2/5)
On the other hand, persisting with equity mutual fund SIPs, even if markets are down, pays off over the long term. So far, market growth after dips tends to make up for the crashes. (3/5)
Read 6 tweets
Today is #WorldPopulationDay, which reminds us that while #ElonMusk is determined to contribute to increasing the population, he has also managed to upset the existing one, by backing out of the Twitter deal. Good thing that the markets were more stable, than Musk’s mood. 1/7
Talking about the “impending recession” seems to be the trend. So, it was a surprise last week, when both the #Sensex & the #Nifty went ↑ by almost 3%. Potential reasons? Maybe the cooldown in the prices of #commodities. This helps sectors like #Auto, #Realty, & #FMCG. 2/7
So naturally, both the #NiftyFMCG & #NiftyRealty were ↑ over 5%. #NiftyAuto was also ↑ 3.5%. In fact, every sectoral index was painting the town green. Global indices were also mostly up. The S&P 500 was ↑ 1.94% & the #NASDAQ100 ↑ by 4.6%. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Every now and then I will make a #thread 🧵 of #threads 🧵 to keep you all updated on the #alpha I shared across time on #Twitter.

Today is the day. I don't know how long this will be.

Let's start with the previous threads🧵of threads🧵
Read 18 tweets
Core #CPI (excluding those volatile #food and #energy components) came in at 0.6% month-over-month and rose 6.0% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, headline #CPI data printed at a very strong 1.0% month-over-month and came in at 8.6% year-over-year, spiking higher on #shelter, #gas and food costs.
These persistently outsized gains in #inflation are clearly having an impact on business and #ConsumerConfidence. Also, the #Fed’s favored measure of inflation, core #PCE, increased 0.34% in April, bringing the year-over-year figure for the measure to 4.9%, as of that month.
Read 14 tweets
Given the ongoing market volatility, here's a series of notes & quotes from @biancoresearch and @AshBennington on today's @RealVision Daily Briefing:

📝 🧵👇 (n/7)
1// -20% Market Correction in the S&P 500

>> From the previous high to today's intra-day lows, the S&P 500 reached the -20% drawdown threshold.

>> Many stocks have experienced large negative price performance thus far in 2022.

#Markets #investing #volatility
2// S&P 500 Has Fallen for 7 Consecutive Weeks

>> The last time this happened was in 2001 (Jim Bianco)

>> Here's the $SPX data from Koyfin for Friday closing prices: 📉😢

4/8: 4,502.29
4/14: 4,392.59
4/22: 4,271.78
4/29: 4,131.93
5/6: 4,123.34
5/13: 4,023.89
5/20: 3,901.36
Read 8 tweets
1. Dear All, I would like to debunk the rumors, that I have been hiding due to #crypto market crash. Every year on beginning of May I go for vacations with my family, and I spend time with them not working.
2. I understand that it was very thought time in the market but to be frank nothing has changed with my investment thesis and these price that we have today are great buying opportunity for #Bitcoin and #Ether, and...
3. if you don’t exceed certain percentage level of exposure on your total investment portfolio you should think about using these levels to accumulate more. (Not financial advice). However please remember that this is and will experience great level of #volatility,
Read 8 tweets
Citing the previous tweet
and adding more information hoping to help get a clear panoramic on increasing #foodprices and the increasingly looming narrative of #recession 👇
A massive backlog of #grains is piling up in #Ukraine to the tune of nearly 25 million tons due to "#infrastructure challenges" and blocked #ports in the #BlackSea, including #Mariupol - @Reuters reports 📰…
#Ukraine was the fourth-largest corn exporter in the 2020/21 season and the sixth-largest #wheat exporter in the world, according to the #IGC (International #Grains Council).…
Read 18 tweets
Buffett was buying oil and gas stocks at the same time I was adding to my positions in March, at the same time the volume of criticism of my bullishness on the sector hit max. I guess I was in good company, facing into the storm. #oil #gas @BisonInterests
Here's some math and analysis on why I'm so bullish on oil and gas stocks. It is a Golden Age for these oil and gas producers.…
Read 5 tweets
1/ We are SO so 🤏 close to confirming an end to this bear market that began one year ago in April 2021. ✊ #Bitcoin
We are ONLY in the "First Sell-Off" region below! I've underlaid the #btc chart underneath... Media attention phase hasn't even started!! Do U understand ?!? 🤯
2/ The last run to $69k WAS bullish, but it was *only* a wave of bullish sentiment spurred on in the midst of a corrective sequence: A, B, and C.
The "first sell off" stage (from above) has so far established between ~$30k-$70k. What a range! 😲 #volatility
3/ Here we are now looking in at the current #btc price action - need I say more? Across the board volume is lower than ever, but can't you feel the energy in the air? Can't you feel the weight, the importance of blockchain being felt all over??
Read 13 tweets
When financial risk managers/statisticians, etc are computing CV Coefficient of Variation (a relative measure of dispersion/risk) of financial assets, they tend to make certain basic mistakes.
1. They don't compare the average returns between assets
2. They ignore the 0 or - sign
CV computation of asset classes included within the portfolio can be lead to serious statistical errors.
Because when the CV of Portfolio A is compared with that of B, the average returns are not the same, hence the comparison becomes meaningless.
In cases where the denominator of the CV (mean value of the return) is either zero or negative value, the ratio should not be used.
In such cases, the portfolio risk manager should use the standard deviation to compare #volatility estimates across asset classes.
Read 5 tweets
Lot of #AMCs come up with different ideas, themes, sectors.

These are demands from #Investors as they have done well in recent past.

AMCs are manufacturers & will offer what is in demand.

Final choice to say YES or NO lies entirely with Investors based on their #NEEDs
What should investors choose and what should they ignore. A point by point guide on where and why to invest in certain #themes, #MarketCap bias, #Sectors, #AssetClasses etc.

What should be criteria for these selections and what should guide them to resist from Investing?
Lets start with #Debt:

Keep enough money as 1 year of your expenses as #EmergencyFunds in #LiquidSchemes

You already have enough exposure to debt as:

1. #PPF
2. #TaxFreeBonds
3. #FDs

No need for separate debt allocation if you are investing thru #AssetAllocation (AA) or #DAAF
Read 16 tweets
As violent tragedy unfolds in Ukraine, what may appear as a relative lack of #market reaction in the U.S. belies the great uncertainty, lack of conviction and anemic #TradingLiquidity across #markets today.
Indeed, only six times in the last 10 years has top-of-book #liquidity on the #SPX been as low as it has been recently.
Additionally, we have been witnessing remarkable daily ranges in the #SPX, comparable to only a handful of major periods/events over the past dozen years.
Read 5 tweets

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