1. A rant about the energy transition
The way the energy transition is happening it will fail because it fails to understand what is important to most people and what is not. Therefore, is likely to lose significant support with out a recalibration.
The way the energy transition is happening it will fail because it fails to understand what is important to most people and what is not. Therefore, is likely to lose significant support with out a recalibration.
2. There are many polls that show emissions are important to people. But they are always a one off question. They are never asked where emissions fall within a person’s list of priorities. It is now assumed that emissions are every persons priority. They are not.
3. Actions of people show emissions are not high on their list of priorities. When demand increases sufficiently and coal fired plants enter operation, they don’t reduce their demand to stop the coal emissions. They continue living their life expecting availability of energy.
4. Most People live on the “Vimes Boots Index”made famous by Terry Pratchett. They prefer to pay lower upfront but more regularly to mange cash flow. The Vimes Theory suggests that rich people are rich because they actually spend less in the long run than normal people
5. Vimes suggest that normal people will buy a $10 boots that last 1yr rather than a $50 pair which will last for 10yr because of their cash flow
Energy transition is expecting everybody to buy the $50 boots. That is why it is doomed to fail in its current form
Energy transition is expecting everybody to buy the $50 boots. That is why it is doomed to fail in its current form
6. The energy transition’s $50 boots include EV cars, home insulation etc. The transition expects people to pay high upfront costs to attain low operational costs, buy EVs etc.
The problem is that most people don’t have the savings
The problem is that most people don’t have the savings
7. It is also the opposite of the traditional energy system for most people which is lower up front costs and higher regular operational costs e.g. gasoline cars
However, current transition path is worse. It is high upfront costs with high operational costs.
However, current transition path is worse. It is high upfront costs with high operational costs.
8. Upfront costs for Gasoline and diesel car are being forced up by taxes on emissions at the manufacturing level.
While operational costs are being forced up. This is best seen this winter where High energy prices were caused by prohibition of investment in Fossil Fuels.
While operational costs are being forced up. This is best seen this winter where High energy prices were caused by prohibition of investment in Fossil Fuels.
9. Lack of renewables generation created extra demand for gas and coal. This forcing prices up.
The energy transition is relying on renewables without providing adequate investment in the back up system to cover the intermittency.
The energy transition is relying on renewables without providing adequate investment in the back up system to cover the intermittency.
10. The current path is going to create even greater energy poverty and the politicians are just not aware of it because they are blinded by their obsession.
End of the incoherent rant.
End of the incoherent rant.
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