1. In Europe data showed that 19% of new cars are of Electric in nature. What is interesting is how that number is occurring.

In Spain, EV prices are not falling even with subsidies. What is happening is gasoline and diesel car prices are going up.
2. A Volkswagen Golf could be found for around €18k brand new before COVID, now lowers price is €23k. Dacia Sandero was €7k now is €8k.

It is happening across the board that new gasoline/diesel prices have risen while EV prices have remained static.
3. So what we are seeing is lower income people being forced out the new car market while those on higher incomes benefit from subsidies. So emissions are not going down, because the market is limited on who can pay the price for an EV.
4. So what we are seeing is older cars being run for longer which means higher emissions than would have been. Politicians don’t realise that people just cannot afford their utopian vision. They want energy and mobility availability/affordability above emissions.

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More from @Big_Orrin

23 Sep
1. This is a good listen but the most important factor for the energy transition was barely mentioned which was the backup Energy system. This is the factor that will make or break the energy transition. A reliable back up system.
2. In a push towards renewables, it’s intermittency means a back up system is needed much more and also needs to be much bigger in size. The U.K. saw prices over $3000/ MWh and a significant factor was the loss of its wind generation system.
3. The U.K. has. a 20GW metered system but during the last 3 weeks it was producing less than 3GW. That means the back up system needed to be 17 to 20GW. This is far bigger than if the U.K. lost a nuclear power plant (biggest is 3.2GW) or a Gas Plant (biggest is 1.9GW).
Read 11 tweets
13 Sep
1. Thread: thought I would put all tweets in one place

Platts and Physical market analysts indicated today that they expect China to release much more from their strategic reserve than previously thought

The believe between 5 and 10 million tonnes (36 and 73mb)
will be released
2. That means before the end of 2021 100mbpd or more could be released from global strategic reserves into commercial inventories for refiners to use

China: 36-73mb
US: 20mb plus crude swaps
India: 4.3mb
3. Why is this significant? because strategic inventories are seen as off market unless an emergency. For China to release from their SPR to affect price suggests that Chinese strategic inventories have more in common with commercial inventories than traditional strategic ones
Read 12 tweets
6 Jun
1. Thread- The current narrative is crude Supply i.e. production is less than Demand therefore market is tight. This is the narrative put out by the IEA, OPEC etc. But it is wrong Supply is not equal to production and demand is not equal to consumption.
2.
Supply= production + change in crude inventories

Demand= consumption + change in product inventories

In between is refiners trying to balance these equations

Currently product inventory are building while crude inventory draw

Therefore production roughly equals consumption
3. In the case of crude oil a production is being augmented by inventories to equal supply while inventories are being used to store excess barrels of product.

It means the oil market is always in a supply and demand balance while inventories exist.
Read 25 tweets
28 Feb
1. Thread

Here are reasons I see the physical oil market as nowhere near as tight as people believe it is

A) Tight market is usually equated to supply/demand balance + amount of spare capacity in market. At moment there is a huge amount of spare capacity that can return quickly
2.

B) Also there is a high level of excess inventories. Any loss of spare capacity at moment is such that spare capacity will still be significantly in excess of normal. Therefore, the perception of a shortage of oil is overhyped.
3.

C) just because excess inventories are being drawn does not mean the market is tight

Excess inventories and normal inventories are different

Normal inventories = risk management
Excess inventories = production

Normal inventories are not currently being touched.
Read 14 tweets
4 Feb
1.Thread

The futures front month of pricing does not equates to the demand for cargoes in that loading month. It only reflects demand for a very small amount (less than 1% of global production) and that is under a very specific contract that only about 6-8 companies trade
#OOTT
2. That contract is the BFOET and the BFOET Partials contract. You buy one of those or 6 partial contracts (from same seller) and you will be delivered a cargo anytime the seller sees fit in the contract month.
3. The cargo delivered is the cheapest (when taking into account Quality Premium) of either Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk or Troll. So you buy an April Brent BFOET contract you are paying April Brent futures+Exchange for Physical(premium/discount). It is a fixed price contract
Read 13 tweets
20 Oct 20
1. OPEC+ expect a large stock draw into year end. The problem is where is it occuring? OECD Refineries typically hold a specific number of cover days of production. With margins bad, does not matter how cheap crude is they will not increase cover days because of cash flow.
#OOTT
2. Differentials and CFDs remain weak which indicates low demand for crude oil. Floating storage is increasing at points of production but falling at points of discharge. Both indicators of low demand. Refinery runs are not increasing in the OECD with COVID surging.
3. We are already trading December WAF loading barrels which means arrival in China in Jan/Feb and then processed in Feb/Mar at earliest. ME barrels have been bought for November which means arrival Dec/Jan. So all the buying into year end has already been done for China.
Read 13 tweets

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