Thread by @Euan_MacDonald

Russia Crisis: What's actually happening.

By building up a very realistic looking invasion force on #Ukraine's borders, the Kremlin is looking to scare the West into forcing Kyiv to make concessions on the Minsk peace process, and ultimately on Ukraine's existence as a state.

The Kremlin's "security guarantee" wish-list is an absurdly high opening bargaining position, which the Kremlin knows will be rejected. Rather, it hopes to bargain the West down so it can achieve lesser, but still important for it objectives.

That's why despite all the bellicose language, the Kremlin is still talking to the West. The bellicose language, and the realistic military threat, is designed to get the West's, specifically the U.S.'s, attention.

Moscow can't force Ukraine to cave in to its demands under the Minsk process, and Ukraine is stubbornly refusing to budge - so the Kremlin is stoking the fear of war to spook the West into putting pressure on Ukraine.

It's in Moscow's interests, therefore, to keep the negotiations process going: there was a meeting of the Normandy Four recently, and there might be another in two weeks, but crucially, this depends on Kyiv accepting the "special status" condition for the "Donbas republics".

One of the Kremlin's aims has been to fuse the "republics" back onto Ukraine, so as to attempt to regain influence on Kyiv, and stop its drift to the West. It hopes these two entities will effectively veto attempts to join NATO, the EU, or any attempt to move from Moscow's orbit.

But the Kremlin, and Putin, always operate by creating multiple opportunities for maneuver, and then adapting to the situation as it evolves. The military force built up on Ukraine's border, while serving primarily as a way to start dialogue, could also be used as advertised.

Despite the West's warnings of "imminent invasion," the force is not ready yet, and perhaps for political reasons (Putin not wanting to spoil China's Olympic Games) perhaps won't be used until after the games end on Feb. 20. The force observed isn't large enough to occupy all UA.

But if the Kremlin fails to gain satisfactory concessions from the talks with the West, it has still left itself the option of using its military force - it looks realistic because it is: it could be used. However, as noted, the force is not large enough to invade the whole of UA

What might it be used for? A lighting attack on Kyiv to topple the gov't would be dramatic but is unlikely - Ukraine's government would simply move elsewhere. Kyiv would have to be occupied by Russia, and that would entail occupying part of northern-central Ukraine to be tenable.

More likely, IMO, is that a false flag incident in the "republics" will be used as justification for Moscow to move in to expand the statelets to make them more viable (and Ukraine itself less viable).

Russian Defense Minister Shoygu on Dec. 21 said "U.S. mercenaries" were "moving chemicals" to the Donbas in preparation for such a "false flag" attack - thus creating a narrative for Moscow to carry out such an attack itself.

This attack would likely be close to the front line at Horlivka, in non-government-controlled Donetsk Oblast, where the Stirol chemicals plant, having lain idle for years, has been restarted, and to where, according to some reports, "leaky barrels" of ammonia have been shipped.

Another option could be to try to secure the canal that formerly supplied Crimea with much of its water. The canal starts at Nova Khakovka, on the banks of the Dnipro. Doing so would entail occupying the southern portion of Kherson Oblast, and perhaps Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

That would be difficult but doable, especially if a simultaneous operation expanded the "republics" to the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Other parts of the force could also threaten Kharkiv and Kyiv at the same time to stretch Ukraine's defenses.

That would turn the Azov Sea into a Russian lake, deprive Ukraine of the export port of Mariupol once and for all, hurting the economy still more. Ukraine would be destabilized (the Kremlin will also be looking to use its propaganda to undermine Ukrainians' faith in their gov't).

Ukraine will be reduced in size and strength, its politics more divided, and its economy weakened.

That is the ultimate goal, which the Kremlin is seeking to achieve either through forcing the West to pressure Kyiv to cave on the Minsk peace process, or by military means.

The West should thus not put pressure on Kyiv to cave, but rather ramp up its political and military support to Ukraine, providing large amounts of defensive weapons, and threaten painful, realistic sanctions. That could block both of the Kremlin's routes to achieving its aims.

However, with the current Russian military buildup on Ukraine's borders, and its ability to scale up this force rapidly, it might already be too late to stop the Kremlin launching some form of military action against Ukraine in the coming weeks.