Before Russia invaded Georgia, the Kremlin found a lot of ways to seed the narrative that the war was because Saakashvili was annoying & didn’t listen to the West.
The 2022 reboot is that the war is because Zelensky is annoying & doesn’t listen.
The war is because of Russia. /1
A lot of effort is being made to create division — or the perception of division that will become real division — between the Ukrainian leadership and the allies it needs now, especially in the White House. /2
I’m sure there’s lots to say about Zelensky’s ZFG style
But he has been clear about what Ukraine needs
None of this is about him
It is about what the Kremlin sees as an opportunity to get this White House to pressure Zelensky to make the concessions Russia needs in Ukraine /3
The part the Ukrainians want us to see is that making those concessions to Russia will not bring peace or even a simulacrum of peace, but instead create the conditions necessary to destabilize Ukraine and end its statehood.
We should listen to what they have to say. /4
8 years
14,000 lives
500,000 mobilized and trained for national defense
Broad range of views on what could happen next with Russia & what the US must do represented in @POLITICOMag, including from Lilia Shevtsova, Fiona Hill, @EvelynNFarkas, @steven_pifer, and more. Some of my thoughts included in this mix: /1
The reality facing the Estonians is the same one the Ukrainians have to face.
Don’t dismiss the reality facing Ukrainians. What they are prepared to do. What they have already had to do these past 8 years. And what they means about what comes next.
All we can really know: if Russia pushes the war outside its current boundaries to the scale their mobilization anticipates (maybe), a lot of people—soldier and civilian, Ukrainian and Russian—will die, and their destruction will bring catastrophic suffering.
Will try to post videos later, but takeaways from today’s panels:
-N. Europeans (incl Balts) have most clarity on what is at stake, what to do
- 🇩🇪 🇫🇷 still hoping the voyage has a different destination
-Both sides want to see more US leadership
-We need to pick the right side /1
To me, it’s clear the right side is w/ the frontline allies, who everyday ask their citizens to prepare to sacrifice for nat’l defense
Everything else is a hat-tip to the Kremlin’s “sphere of influence” argument, and I refuse to condemn any peoples to a repeat of that history /2
It hurts my head that German officials can reference “burdens of history” as a reason for non-action against Russia when non-action can also be this condemnation to darkness.
The burden of all our histories is to defend the values that have given us our prosperous, safe lives /3
“Why did Putin just walk into Crimea in 2014 & take it? Because he knew the West would talk but not act. Why did Belarusian President Lukashenko feel able to order a Ryanair plane down and take a dissident off it last year? Because he knew the West would talk but not act… /2
…Why is Moscow, now via Minsk, continuing to weaponise migrants against the EU? Well, you get the point. Moscow suffers no real consequences for its behaviour, so why should it stop? All the while, the West talks endlessly without really doing much... /3
Russian FM Lavrov is using his annual presser to broadcast from upside-down world, where the revisionist West is disrupting the world order
“Russia is not bound by the obligation to respect the right to choose alliances”
🙄
Finland & Sweden are being “seduced” to artificially enlarge NATO
I say again, 🙄
“Everyone else is violating the rules but the rules don’t apply to Moscow” is a pretty good summary of everything we’ve been hearing from Russia’s team these past weeks.