Taylor Ogan Profile picture
Jan 28 7 tweets 2 min read
As more and more companies are deploying actual robotaxis with no driver to cities, the Tesla FSD project looks increasingly further behind, both iteratively and functionally.

Elon is looking more desperate wrt FSD as the competition reveals genuine autonomous vehicles.
If you are still failing to see this, godspeed. Over the past year, Tesla/TSLA owners have privately reached out to me, admitting they were too blinded by the obsession with “FSD sucks now, but version x.x will blow your mind.” Tesla is nowhere close to robotaxis.
The frequency of people in the Tesla community reaching out to me went from a few per month this time last year, to multiple per day in the last two months. Almost all these days are FSD beta testers. They are fed up and can’t believe how many believers there still are out there.
Employees who work directly on/with FSD have reached out to me saying how shocked they are by what’s happening. How they can’t believe their boss is still publicly touting Level 4/5 FSD this year.
Those who are still crying, “The other autonomous driving companies are geofenced, or fake their drives,” etc. are in complete denial.

Tesla couldn’t even pull off faking a predetermined Level-2 drive at Autonomy Day without crashing in the parking lot, literally.
Everyone—and I mean every single person—with whom I talk in the AV industry no longer talks about Tesla as a serious competitor. Tesla is so far gone in their rear view mirrors that it’s not worth even joking about anymore.
Elon Musk saying the Tesla Bot is the focus of 2022 was the nail in the coffin for most, especially after doubling down on the promise of FSD.

By the way, I’ve had FSD Beta since October.

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More from @TaylorOgan

Dec 14, 2021
Piggybacking on @bridgemccarthy_'s thread on BYD's role in Toyota's announcements today:

1. We think last week's media reports on Toyota partnering with BYD to produce a $30k affordable EV next year missed the point. This isn't new news.

2/ So Toyota unveiled 15 BEV models today (finally) that it plans to sell before 2030. Toyota wasted too much time and money on FCEV technology over the years, so the world's largest automaker has been scrambling to get on board with BEVs in the last 2.5 years.
3/ Here's what I think happened. The timing is important.

Toyota was pursuing a "side project", of sorts, to develop its first BEV in 2018-2019. Subaru, equally clueless on EV tech, wanted in, so it threw Toyota some $ to help with ongoing R&D...
Read 12 tweets
Nov 23, 2021
Every day, more & more Tesla fans realize what I’ve been saying for years: Teslas lack the hardware to be robotaxis. There’s a reason no one in the (actual) autonomous driving industry thought TSLA would pull off what was promised at Autonomy Day. Here’s why we need more of this
2/ There seems to be a misconception among the most extreme $TSLA bulls that those of us who are critical of aspects of Tesla are unable to see everything Tesla has accomplished and how disruptive Tesla will be. And I actually understand why. Let me explain.
3/ I’ve followed Tesla closer and longer than probably anyone reading this. Back in Tesla’s early days, we fans would meet at L2 EV chargers (only a few Superchargers per state) and nerd out about EVs, Tesla, Elon, compare Wh/mi, exchange 3D printed accessories for our cars, etc.
Read 25 tweets
Nov 9, 2021
Far too many people think Tesla is much closer to being able to take the human out of the driver's seat than it really is. Here's why it is nowhere close.
2/ Let's go way back to Waymo's 2016 Autonomous Vehicle Disengagement Report. By the end of the 2016 reporting period, Google/Waymo had operated in autonomous mode for 2.3 million miles, 636k of which occurred on public roads. (Mostly in Mountain View & neighboring communities)
3/ In 2016, 60 Waymo vehicles drove 636k miles autonomously on public roads in California. During those, there were 124 disengagements reported while the vehicles were in autonomous mode. In other words, 5,128 miles driven autonomously between reported disengagements.
Read 23 tweets
Sep 14, 2021
.@WR4NYGov, you don't seriously think I, and others who are calling on Tesla to be more careful on how it tests on public roads (@missy_cummings, @JasonTorchinsky, @GordonJohnson19), are KILLING "a million people a year"? That's disgusting.
2/ AVs will make our roads safer as long as they are saving more lives than they take. There's a difference between driver assist and fully driverless vehicles. Tesla is claiming to be close to having driverLESS cars, but are they safer?
3/ Watch @kimpaquette's video above, then this video of an ACTUAL driverless vehicle, and you tell me which is safer. (Suspend your belief, just for a moment, that this vehicle isn't being operated by a remote human driver.)
Read 7 tweets
Sep 14, 2021
It’s time to start talking about Tesla’s blind spots.

A few of us have been trying to sound the alarms for a while now, but it has largely fallen on deaf ears.
Read 4 tweets

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