Fed calls this week

• JP Morgan (Fri): 5 hikes this year (Mar, May), 3 next year
• BofA (Fri): 7 this year (every meeting), 4 next year
• Morgan Stanley (Thurs): 4 this year (Mar, Jun)
• Deutsche Bank (Wed): 5 this year (Mar, May, Jun), 3 next year

All hikes are ¼ pt
Fed calls this week

• BNPP (Thurs): Six hikes this year, three next year
• Standard Chartered (Fri): Four this year (at the next four meetings), two next year
• Wells Fargo (Fri): Five this year (Mar, May, Jun), three next year

All hikes are ¼ pt
Fed calls this week

• UBS (Wed): 3 hikes this year (Mar, Jun, Sept)
• Barclays (Wed): 3 hikes this year (Mar, Jun, Sept)
• Jefferies (Fri): 5 hikes this year

All hikes are ¼ pt
Fed calls this week

• Nomura (Thu): 5 hikes this year, starting with a ½ pt increase in March (¼ pt in May, Jun)
• Goldman (Fri): 5 hikes this year (Mar, May, Jun), 3 next year
• TD (Wed): 4 hikes this year (Mar, Jun)

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More from @NickTimiraos

Jan 19
A short thread on a few new items from the Fed's the 2016 FOMC transcripts:

Previously, the Fed released the "key" identifying the individual projections from the Summary of Economic Projections after a 10 year delay. In 2016, the FOMC agreed to do this after just 5 years.
(They didn't do this retroactively, so the names from previous years will still be released after 10 years).

The upshot is we can now see where half of current FOMC participants thought the unobserved variables like r-star and u-star were as of their Dec 2016 view of the economy
Back then, the unemployment rate had most recently been reported at 4.6%. Only one participant (Evans) thought the natural rate was lower.

Most officials, including Powell and Yellen, estimated a neutral fed-funds rate at 2.75%.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 11
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the central bank should be aggressive in shrinking its balance sheet, allowing its holdings to decline by at least $100 billion a month reuters.com/business/feds-…
What Bostic is talking about here is allowing some but not all of the Fed's security holdings to mature without reinvesting principal every month.

In Oct '17, the Fed started by allowing $10 billion in securities to mature every month ($6B for Treasurys, $4B for MBS)
These amounts rose every quarter, so that by Oct '18, the Fed allowed $50 billion in securities to mature every month (Trump referred to this as the "50B's"). That was divided between $30 billion for Treasurys and $20 billion for MBS.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 10
Several former Fed officials have commentaries today that all say the same thing.

Here's Larry Meyer: "Yes, the FOMC is behind the curve. A dangerous place to be, especially if the FOMC is very far behind the curve, as I believe is the case today."

1/
Former NY Fed President Bill Dudley says the central bank's latest economic projections amount to a dovish "fantasy" that inflation can return to 2% with rates gently rising up to 2% over the same three year timeframe

2/bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Dudley says the Fed may need to raise rates more than four times in a year.

"They're going to go fairly slow at first.... It wouldn't surprise me at all if we get into an every meeting kind of cycle at some point."

3/
Read 4 tweets
Jan 7
All signs are pointing to the Fed raising interest rates in March after another jobs report that shows an ever-tighter labor market wsj.com/articles/jobs-…
To understand how the Fed will react to this report, it is best to not pay much attention to the supposedly underwhelming payroll print. Those have been revised higher in recent months.
Instead, look at signs of labor market tightness via the:

• rising prime-age employment rate (it has jumped a full percentage point, from 78% to 79%, since August),
• a falling unemployment rate (U-6 is at 7.3%, just three tenths above Feb 2020 level),
• and rising wages.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 16, 2021
Sherrod Brown says he's "absolutely certain" either Jay Powell or Lael Brainard could be confirmed as Fed chair.

They're both "clearly qualified."

Decision could be announced "in the next several days or couple of weeks."

h/t @aduehren
Sherron Brown won't reveal his preference except to say he does have one and has shared it with Biden.

"I don't have a read on what they're going to do. They have put a lot of thought into this. They've put a lot of thought into the other openings."
Brown says "they may do one or two" other Fed appointments "with the chair. It's not clear."
Read 5 tweets
Nov 15, 2021
One question I’m getting a lot is how a Brainard Fed would be different from a Powell Fed on rate policy? We laid some of that out in this story today. I’ll elaborate in this thread.
The short answer: They've stated similar views on inflation and policy wsj.com/articles/biden…
But because policy could be nearing an inflection point and because no one at the Fed has had to deal with a problem like the current one, there’s perhaps less certainty about the Powell reaction function or the Brainard reaction function, and any differences therein.
(Note: This isn’t intended as a commentary on the political horserace, I.E., who's up or who's down, which doesn’t feel like it has changed all that much since the summer)
Read 15 tweets

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