Thread by @trygveolson

Faith or Fear Thread: Russia, Ukraine, and How it All Relates to What We See Here. @LincolnWatchman @ProjectLincoln @reedgalen @JoeTrippi @stuartpstevens @TheRickWilson

I believe our generation of Americans' great global battle is between Democracy and Autocracy. For our parents, it was the Cold War – Communism versus Capitalism. For our grandparents, it was Freedom versus Fascism.

The Soviet Union was both autocratic and communist (economically). Except for a very brief window, Russia has kept the autocracy but scraped communism for capitalism (China, too). Unfortunately, this reality clouds much of the debate on many issues, including Ukraine.

From the '90s through the 00's the Soviet Republics, and the parts of Europe it controlled, have moved towards democratic & capitalistic. The evolution was slower the further east you went. On Europe's borders in the Baltics States, Czech & Poland, it happened fast.

Moving eastward into places like Belarus, or Central Asia, the transition moved slower. The autocratic tendencies (like those in Russia) created crony capitalistic states. Often this was due to more Russian meddling (economically for political purposes).

That part was true in Ukraine too, but time moves forward. A desire to be European in Ukraine – prosperous, independent, and democratic -- became a more powerful force. That force is what Putin fears.

Autocrats, I have found, maintain power through fear. Their strategy in using it is based on portraying themselves as inevitable and invincible to those who might challenge them.

While they use fear to maintain power – they live in constant fear of the past, the actions to maintain power they don't want to answer for. The future is a problem too -- aging autocrats appear less invincible and inevitable with time.

Since the initial Orange Revolution in 04, Ukraine has slowly moved towards both capitalism & democracy – ebbs and flows, corruption, and all. Kyiv is, a shining city on a hill for those in Belarus & those further eastward.

Ukraine today is a sign, signal, and safe space in their efforts and dreams of becoming more western -- prosperous and free.

Once, while working for @IRIglobal in Kyrgyzstan, I asked a want to be President, "What is your vision for the nation?"

He responded, "I want my country to be European." I found myself confused – the nation could be many things, but European was not one of them, I thought. So when I pressed him, what he meant was prosperous, independent, and democratic.

There are now many places lighting the path to democracy in Putin's world. Those now part of the EU, former parts of the Soviet Union (the Baltic States), & those in Ukraine. He is afraid of this pull, it is a threat to fear he tries to impose – abroad and at in Russia.

Putin has witnessed @Tsihanouskaya, a stay-at-home mom prior, defeat Lukashenko in an election. He saw 100's of thousands of Belarusians overcoming fear through faith in each on the streets. He is afraid and only has a fear of military extorsion to keep control.

Putin recognizes if Ukraine can be so successful is casting itself free that is a threat to his rule. If Belarusians can come to the streets, that can happen at home. This light shining from places unexpected is a threat to his illiberal vertical power structure.

Putin knows the west, and the United States, are divided. He helped sow of this division. He has useful idiots & allies inside to push his narratives and divide us against each other. He wants those building the shinning cities to see our divisions & question our resolve.

My dear friend Boris Nemtsov once said to me, "Putin and Lukashenko know democracy will eventually get them. They will never admit." Boris was an optimist – he believed in democracy in an inspirational way. But, unfortunately, he paid for it with his life at the hands of Putin.

The greatest generation found a way. They built a world in which our parents won the Cold War. Today our generation faces foes no lesser than theirs. The question is can we fix what Ailes us at home while standing tall in the global battle between democracy and autocracy we face

Putin bets divisions among the democracies is too great. The Chinese are watching. I believe one should ever bet against the world's democracies or the US. We may "explore every other option," as Churchill once said, but in the end "we get it right."

We are witnessing a battle between democracy and autocracy of faith in each other and fear of one another on borders of Ukraine. We are seeing it here in our own politics.

As Americans, we must choose -- are we a win-win democratic nation built on faith in each other? Or are we one ruled through the zero-sum of fearing each other? The choice each of us makes will be the world and America we leave for our children.