Last week, Ark Invest released their latest annual report, titled “Big Ideas 2022”.
The report highlights key areas of disruptive innovation and developing technologies that are poised to overthrow legacy systems, as well as predictions for their growth by 2030.
Here’s a TLDR:
Digital Wallets
“Digital wallets could become leading platforms for offline & online commerce, adding $12k net value per user.”
“These wallets could also serve as on ramps to Web3 assets, such as NFTs.”
Ark forecasts each digital wallet user in the US could be worth $22.5k
Blockchains
“Public blockchains shift the distribution of trust, replacing institutions that rely on centralized authorities w decentralized, open-source software.”
“Just as the internet turned info into packets online, blockchains will turn all assets into tx’s on chain.
1/Bitcoin:
Empowering a monetary revolution
“BTCs market cap still represents a fraction of global assets & is likely to scale as nation states adopt as legal tender.”
According to Ark’s predictions, 1 $BTC could exceed $1,000,000 by 2030.
2/Bitcoin
BTC is maturing
“Despite increased exuberance as BTC scaled to a record high price, on-chain data suggests holders are focused on the long term.”
“Long term investors hold 13.5m $BTC, with more than 500k addresses exhibiting long term holding behavior.”
3/Bitcoin
BTC is taking market share as a global settlement network
“Bitcoin’s cumulative transfer volume increased by 463% in a year, from $2.3 trillion in 2020 to $13.1 trillion in 2021.”
Crypto powered finance may scale more efficiently than TradFi
“Smart contract based financial transactions settle in near real-time almost anywhere in the world. Revenue per employee illustrates DeFi’s efficiency relative to that of traditional finance.”
4/Ethereum
DAOs & governance
“DAOs are replacing centralized, hierarchical corporate structures with decentralized communities.”
TradFi corporations are permissioned, costly, & opaque while DAOs are permissionless, frictionless, & transparent.
5/Ethereum
Stablecoins
“Stablecoins are fueling trading, lending, & payments, & have increased nearly 5x during 2021.”
“Stablecoins account for 95% of total outstanding debt on Compound & 22% of total liquidity on Uniswap.”
6/Ethereum
ETH’s TAM
“Eth could displace many TradFi services & compete as global money.”
“As financial services move on-chain, decentralized networks will take share from existing financial intermediaries.”
Ark forecasts that ETH’s market cap could exceed $20T within 10 yrs
1/Web3
Internet Revolution
“As consumers spend more time online, the importance of digital assets is likely to increase considerably as consumer spending shifts to virtual worlds.”
“By 2030, we expect Web3 to depress annual offline consumption by $7.3 trillion.”
2/Web3
Ownership
“We believe virtual ecosystems will thrive if users can own, as opposed to rent, digital assets.”
“In Web2, end users face restrictions on products or services.. In contrast, decentralized blockchains allow users to store & trade assets on a secondary market.”
3/Web3
NFTs
“NFTs allow us to verify the ownership of digital assets on public blockchains. They usurp the power of centralized platforms to house, control, & verify assets.”
“In 2021, NFTs generated $21B in sales & unique buyers soared 8-fold to 700k.”
4/Web3
Reinventing collecting
“Collectibles & art account for 75% of sales on $ETH, while sales in virtual worlds like Sandbox account for less than 25%.”
“NFT demand in virtual worlds could exceed that of art, especially as they begin to exhibit more utility in games.”
5/Web3
NFTs will blur the line between consumption & investment
“NFTs offer a marketplace where users can invest in assets & engage in P2P txs. NFT buyers & sellers determine prices on blockchains instead of data aggregation platforms, allowing for new forms of monetization.”
6/Web3
Blockchain gaming enable entertainment & monetization simultaneously
In the same way that free to play gaming revolutionized pay to play models, play to earn gaming will take over the industry and allow gamers to make money while they do what they love.
7/Web3
If Web3 proliferates, the monetization rate of online spending should approach that of offline spending by 2030.
“Our research suggests that the monetization of time spent online will grow at a compound annual rate of 19% with Web3 but only 8% w/o Web3 by 2030.”
8/Web3
Thanks to Web3, annual online expenditures could reach $12.5T by 2030.
“W/o Web3, online expenditures is likely to grow at an annual rate of 16%, from $1.4T in 2021 to $5.2T in 2030. With Web3, annual online expenditures are likely to grow at a rate of 28% to $12.5T.”
These threads take me a considerable amount of time to research & compile, so if you enjoyed it, please consider shooting me a follow & retweeting this thread.
For those that are interested, the full report from Ark can be found here:
2021 was one of the most impactful yrs i’ve had in crypto
I’ve matured greatly both as a trader & a person
Bc it’s the start of a new year, I figured i’d make a list of what I learned, both for future reference for myself & for those that are curious
🧁’s lessons from 2021…
Conviction > Rotating
You only have to be right once.
I know, it sucks seeing coins other than yours pumping 100% every single day.
But the odds you’ll catch every one, let alone do it consistently are very low.
Maximalism
Being closed minded cost me numerous opportunities to make wife changing gains in 2021.
Out of my own stubbornness & ego, I refused to invest in any alternative L1’s, convincing myself nothing could even come close to $ETH & missing out on 100x gains in the process.
A few days ago, Vitalik Buterin made an appearance on the BanklessHQ podcast, where he breaks down major milestones completed in 2021 as well as the “Endgame” for $ETH, a multi-step roadmap that aims to bring full scalability to $ETH
How far have we come.. & what comes next?🧁
2021 has undoubtedly been the year of $ETH.
When questioned about the milestones in 2021, the first Vitalik brings up is the rise of NFTs.
“The rise of NFTs was something really fascinating to see, & i think its brought a lot of people into the crypto space.”
“We actually are giving people who are creating art new business models. We’re giving the creators of this thing thats very valuable & often has a hard time getting business models a new way to actual get funding.”
Earlier this month, Messari released an incredibly comprehensive 165 page research report highlighting key trends, companies, & projects to watch across the crypto landscape, including predictions for 2022.
Too much to read?
Heres a TL;DR👇🏻
Investment Themes
1. Institutional trust is collapsing
“Half of Millenials & Gen X investors said it would “take a miracle” to retire”
“70% of Americans disapprove of Congress”
Prediction: “Things will get worse before they get better in the “real” world”
2. Crypto is inevitable
“Web3 is an unstoppable force in the long term.”
“Young people are keen to invest in tech that disrupts older generations preferred institutions.”
Prediction: “Crypto will be an order of magnitude larger by 2030”
Today, I’d like to discuss a project i’ve been keeping my eye on for quite some time.
The team has been working for 4 years developing a hardware wallet, & just recently announced the launch of a new Layer 0 protocol which enables off chain transfers using secure hardware.
Yesterday, the Bank of America released a 141 page research report on the digital asset ecosystem titled: “Digital Assets Primer: Only the first inning”.
Here’s a summary of its findings..
Corporations aren’t risking being left behind
“Companies aren't taking the risk of ignoring digital assets and applications and are actively exploring this new technology and its use cases. Leading tech companies, banks and others are adjusting their approach”
The ecosystem is diverse & thriving
“Hundreds of companies are now within the digital asset ecosystem providing infra support, marketplaces & apps”
“Digital asset-related M&A ytd jumped to $4.2bn, up from $940m in 2020 & $2.5bn in 2019, indicating a dynamic & maturing industry”