Thread by @EggPlatypus

1/5 Ive seen a few people talking about $MCMJ as a low float/gamma squeeze candidate… its not, sorry.

Reasons why:
(1) FPAs guarantee a minimum 4m share float;
(2) high post-redemption trading volume;
(3) valuation is horrible and will have no buying support.

2/5 Here are the $MCMJ forward purchase agreement (FPA) shares that are free to sell after merger:

> Dec 27: 1.4m shares with a $0.22 discount, sponsor repurchase @ 10.01

> Dec 27: 1.8m shares, sponsor repurchase @ 10.16

> Jan 10: 800k shares, sponsor repurchase @ 10.16

3/5 $MCMJ trading volume in the two days post-redemption period: 734k and 255k shares. This is higher than any low-float SPACs have traded during post-redemption period before merger. Hard to give an accurate est. on the non-FPA float from this, but likely its at least 2m

4/5 $MCMJ is valued at 5.9x 2022E and 3.8x 2023E EV/R at $10 and is unprofitable.

Meanwhile, $MAPS is valued at 2.0x 2022E and 1.4x 2023 EV/R, and is profitable.

There will be no buying support for this other than retail hoping for a low float squeeze... doomed to $3 soon imo

5/5 Disclaimer: obviously, im short $MCMJ via Feb puts.

This deal has an absurd valuation (even for SPACs) and FPA arbs are just begging for people to bid it up so they can dump early.

Been seeing ppl talk about this as a low floater so figured id just nip that talk in the bud.