Seems to me highly unlikely that the EU hit on the optimal regulatory design. So in principle there ought to be better ones to be found in many if not all areas. But:
The right's vision of a bonfire of regulations that could significantly boost growth is a canard. There is no evidence to back it up.
Those urging this neglect that regulations are often enabling: quality and quality assurance and standardization are services buyers and sellers want.
Divergence from what may well be a mildly suboptimal EU standard will generate more frictions at the GB-NI and GB-EU border.
Generating our own, even if mildly superior regulatory solution leaves firms exporting having to produce to multiple standards if they are going to take advantage of it.
And note that we just lost our considerable influence over the EU regulatory solution, [the product of many years of past UK influence].
We are not a large enough market to attempt to innvoate to create a new global regulatory solution, in any market. Our best bet on that score was always to leverage our influence on the regulatory area we were part of that was large enough.
It would be nice if we were good at figuring out subsidies or procurement policies to boost our industries. But we are not. Going far into this will waste money that could be better spent on much needed improvements to basic public goods [health, education, etc..]
One of the benefits of the single market was greatly capping competitive and largely wasteful subsidy regimes, to provide a level market playing field, diverting member state governments into putting their resources where they can do more good.
This tweet sums up the early part of my thread well: better to have a scaled up, compromise, agreed on regulatory solution in a large market than multiple locally optimized solutions.
1. To begin with, some uncertainty about what PPE quality/type would be needed. Early procurement errors might be expected, and indicative of a precautionary policy of buying whatever you can.
2. There was a mad scramble for PPE, at a time of very high demand, and supply constraints binding. Perhaps to be expcted that there would be some overpayment - doing that and securing a trade better than underpaying and getting nothing.
I think that all the big calls; very low interest rates since the GFC; QE, were the right ones. Forward guidance was the right thing to do but handled badly.
Andrew has a point about diversity on the MPC. Controversies rage in economics about everything, including monetary econ and finance. Yet the range of votes on the MPC is tiny and there is almost no disagreement about anything, ever.
1. 1998's devolution settlement was popular. And it's at least as possible that support for independence could have been greater and more millitant had England denied it to the nations. Tom presents it as though we are sure it hastened rather than forestalled disintegration.
2. It could be a good thing that there might not exist a single sense of Britishness, and that multiple such identities can /do coexist; and that this can be a sign of national health. The piece's implicit hypothesis is that the lack of a single identity is an illness.
So, no lockdown yet. There's a legitimate debate to be had about what needs to be done and when. If, like me, you think that we ought to have moved, and that eventually the govt do the right thing [more on this in a minute], this just means worse is coming soon.
ie, we are eventually going to have to lock down for more and for longer than we otherwise would. This is for two reasons.
First, locking down later allows the epidemic to spread more, and it therefore takes longer/stronger set of measures to reduce the actual flow of cases to the target flow.
@Samfr@iainmartin1@DPJHodges There’s nothing wrong with what SAGE did, but that tweet is not really correct as it stands.
@Samfr@iainmartin1@DPJHodges Forget the 'complexity' for a moment. That is a side issue. Think of the model, for simplicity, as y=y_1+x+shocks. y is infections, '-1' denotes one period before, x is a policy [like permitted contacts], shocks are good and bad luck.
@Samfr@iainmartin1@DPJHodges SAGE are asking: what will happen to y, for different x's, ie different policy settings for permitted contacts. Try some different x's, and you get different time paths for y. When you see a time path for y you like, then you note down the x's and legislate for them.