Thread by @ashishkjha

I've been saying for weeks that as cases recede

We can soon relax public health restrictions

I think of this like the weather

When it is bucketing rain

Umbrella, rain coat, boots, are all essential

When the storm turns into a drizzle, those become less critical

Thread

A big spike (like Omicron surge) is like a major storm

If you don't want to get wet, you need to stay home

But if you venture out

Bring a big umbrella (vaccines)
Wear a raincoat (good masks)
And rainboots (avoid crowded indoor spaces)

You get the idea

2/n

Right now, the storm is starting to ebb

Infections are falling, hospitalizations down

But with infections still high

Indoor mask mandates make sense. As do indoor capacity limits

Many states still have them (though bars are open in every city in America, as far as I know)

3/

As storm passes

You'll always have your big umbrella (vaccines)

So it may be reasonable to take put away the raincoat (masks) and boots (indoor gatherings)

As bucketing rain becomes a drizzle, people will make different choices

And mandates are far less necessary

4/n

Why be judicious with mandates?

Because over time, effectiveness of mandates wane

People tire of them

Key is to communicate:

During periods of low infections, restrictions come off

During potential future surges, public health measures may need to temporarily return

5/n

Part of the reason is that during big surges, as hospitals overflow

Individual action isn't enough

Collective action is needed, which often means mandates

That's fine

But during periods of low infections, reasonable for individuals to choose their own risk tolerance

6/9

What are the problems with this idea?

Some might wonder, how do we protect the immunocompromised?

Good news is that Evusheld (protective monoclonal) is becoming more available

As is Paxlovid, a great oral antiviral

And IC folks can protect themselves with good masking

7/9

Another argument against relaxing?

Once you relax restrictions, you can't go back

I have never understood this

Do we keep mandates in place for years?

I'd rather just be straight with folks:

Public health measures during surges

Not when cases, hospitalizations are low

8/9

With infections still high (hard rain)

I wouldn't end public health measures today

But soon, as cases, hospitalizations get low (drizzle)

Lifting restrictions reasonable

To be clear: the pandemic won't be over

But as we prepare for future risks

We can enjoy the present

End