Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Feb 1 72 tweets 7 min read
Budget 2022: The Big Thread on all things that will be super important today! #Budget2022

Note: no investment advice. Large attempts at humour, not always successful. You've been warned.
cc @capitalmind_in
We start with markets, of course. Here's something to keep you occupied for the next 5 seconds: How markets reacted before, during and after budgets, since 2001:
India's tax rates across the years (I've only looked at personal tax rates)
Getting started!
It starts. "Honourable speaker", but she's going to be the one speaking.
9.2% growth this year, omicron wave, vaccinations happening. You get the picture. Azaadi ka amrit mahotsav, or something like that.
Climate, private public investment, world peace etc. We will cover everything. Not saying in jest.
Air India has been sold. Public Issue of LIC shortly. Other stuff for 22-23.
Priorities: Productivity, Energy, Climate, Financing of investments.

IT,Social Infra, Clean Energy, Etc. We has EVERYTHING.
There is a Gati Shakti Masterplan with 7 engines. I sense a horrible economics paper for future children.
Four logistics parks. Railways to get involved for logistics for farmers. 400 new gen trains. 100 Cargo terminals I guess for trains. Innovative ways of financing (Note: We don't know if NFTs are involved)
Reducing oilseed imports by growing more locally. If farmers can stop falling in love with rice and wheat I suppose.
Speaker was falling asleep. She said "Honourable speaker" and he quickly woke up. This augurs well.
FM is reading from a tablet, which is good because I swear I can hardly read the fonts on anything printed nowadays
CGTMSE to be revamped, given new funds. This is for 200,000 cr. for MSMEs. Huge deal if this is done right. Lots of promise, but lots of red tape also.
Byju's considering big time IPO because hajaar education to people
Quality Mental health counselling - 23 mental health centers NIMHANS as nodal. Truly excellent initiative! Very needed.
5.5 cr. households get tap water last year. 60,000 cr. more for 3.8 cr. households more. We better get this fast.
Some enthu for lower income real estate. Strangely, Oberoi Realty goes up, which doesn't really know what that means.
Till this point, nothing earth shattering has happened. In case you missed it.
"Decentralized energy" to villages. That is going to be very interesting.
75 digital banking units by banks. What??? They're all digital anyhow
"Trust based governance" -> this is apparently going to happen. I doubt many words in that phrase but it's not my budget.
Why are they discussing India at 100, I'm already feeling old.
Endowments of 250 cr. to five colleges that will be called Centers of Excellence.
Batteries swapping: Policy will come and interop standards. YAY!!!! Anything here is good (early I know, but still)
They'll even handle cross border resolutions - this is also good.
Govt will mandatorily pay bills within 10 days (of what?)
Govt procurement: Can use surety bonds instead of BGs. Surety bonds can be given by insurers. Interesting!
They have figured out that meme creators can be given jobs as "comics" industry. Booyah!
5G spectrum auctions next year. PLI for 5G also. 5% of annual collections under USO for rural broadband and mobile.
Exports promotion. Long pause. People start clapping. Ok but needs better prompt.
68% of defence capex for local manufacturing. From 61% this year. Defence R&D to be opened even for startups. Zomato might go to Siachen! (Last sentence not in budget ok)
Please don't mindlessly consume things. Climate is a problem. Solar power is one of the solutions. We'll do local manufacturing, which we have tried before and gotten beaten up but we'll try again
Nothing wrong with that of course
FOURTH Priority: Financing - we need money. (Long way this is being said)
Public investment is needed to bring in private investment. So, capex is 35% increased from 5.44 lakh cr to 7.50 lakh crores! $100 billion.
Green bonds: Sovereign green bonds will be bought. On your demat account, they will be coloured green. Or something.
Some uncle is screaming at a Bajaj Finance caller in the background.
That is not what she meant by financing, you stupid fellow, I can imagine that conv going
Digital currency is happening: There is BLOCKCHAIN rupee, issued by RBI. Good news?
One sentence, that's all.
Data centers to get infra status! This is good. For financing.
50 year interest free loans over and above regular state borrowing for something, I don't know what that is. Looks like I missed the core
States to be allowed 4% deficit. If they do power sector reforms.
51K cr. giving for airindia debt. Took capex to 6.2 lakh crores.
39.9 lakh crore to be spent next year! That's less than 10% increase? Whoa.
6.9% of GDP as fisc deficit. Need to see final figures.
Direct taxes. Thank you peoples, she says.
New Updated Return. IT dept says pay extra tax and file an updated return. If income has been missed out, say some crypto here or there, which they discover later because you link your wallet with aadhaar and boom it comes crashing down, you get an option okay.
Cooperative societies to pay lower taxes. I'll get details laer.
If the tax system was a car, all FM has done so far is changed the colour of some nuts under hubcaps.
Startups were provided tax incentives - extended to next year, if you qualify etc.
Sec 115 AD - 15% tax on new manufacturing entities - extended to if they start ops before 31 march 2023
CRYPTO Tax is here! Virtual digital assets - any sale will be taxed at 30%. No expense allowed. No set off against other incomes including capital gains.

Rate of 1% > some threshold, for something also.

No one claps.
I didn't get that - but there was some PMS income for offshore derivatives thingy?
Cap surcharge on AOPs at 15%
Cap surcharge on capital gains on ANY asset to 15%! Great for all unlisted cos, etc. !
Undisclosed income cannot be avoided anymore by setting off of taxes. Disclose and set off, or you don't get the option if they find out.
That's it for direct taxes? So no change of 80C, or anything else, looks like.
No increase in taxes also, phew.
Someone gave her paper right now because tablet wasn't updatable over the air
Import duty cuts have screwed up capital goods manufacturing in India. So: phase out concessional rates removed slowly and 7.5% import duty introduced.
Chemicals, textiles, metals - capex import concessions will be harmonized, there are some changes in the fine print
Customs duty even on fake jewellery - min 400 rupees per kg.
Duty on umbrellas at 20%. You get rain, you gotta use the Indian made stuff. okay? Very important.
It's over. #Budget2022
+1.44% on Nifty. Rupee gains 10p to 74.65, 10 year yield rises to 6.77%
This is a very progressive budget. It has progressed from 11:00 AM to 12:33 PM.
No mention of capital gains removal of FPIs on bonds - means no inclusion of bonds this year into global indexes. As @latha_venkatesh says, good point to note what isn't.

Bond yields hit 6.8%
Bonus stripping is removed completely, even on shares. We have taken advantage of this at @capitalmind_in so many years - have to now say goodbye.

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More from @deepakshenoy

Feb 2
A thread 🧵on how much retail investors (individuals) dominate daily investing in the markets in India, from the NSE Pulse: static.nseindia.com//s3fs-public/i…

They're 41% of the stock market transactions - down from 45% in 2020-21. Still, massive. Image
Individuals are 29% of index futures - a big drop from 39% in FY 21 and give way to brokers (PRO). Image
They give way to FIIs and PRO in the stock futures segment, down to just 19% in FY22 (which is April 2021 to March 2022) Image
Read 8 tweets
Feb 1
Crypto tax: All sales taxed at 30%. No deductions of brokerage etc. allowed. No set-off against any other losses allowed (Is this reading right: you can't even set off losses in other crypto transactions)
1% TDS by the seller on the transaction:
Wording might be
a) crypto against crypto is allowed due to phrase "aggregate of the income"
b) Brokerage could be allowed as cost of acquisition
Read 6 tweets
Jan 31
RBI did a "switch" today, converting nearly Rs. 120,000 cr. of government securities from short term to long. What does this mean?
RBI holds a lot of government bonds. Roughly 11 lakh crores. It should - all central banks tend to own bonds of their own country's government. (RBI owns 42 lakh crores of foreign government bonds, as part of forex reserves)
When the bonds come closer to maturity, RBI will effectively get money from the government and it might then have to use that money to buy more government bonds (to retain the allocation). Instead they just switch the bonds.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 20
The curious case of the sudden rise in short term interest rates (and liquid funds losing money) yesterday: a thread🧵
This thread may have more questions than answers, but here goes:
Hajaar excess liquidity, so RBI is sucking out money using VRRR (the sound that liquidity makes when it goes back to RBI temporarily)
A VRRR is a Variable Rate Reverse Repo => RBI says you have excess money? Gimme, and bid your rates up to max 3.99% and I will pay.

They do this regularly - 14-day VRRRs, 7 day VRRRs etc. On Tuesday 18th there was a 7 day 200,000 cr. VRRR and banks bid to give at 3.99%
Read 10 tweets
Jan 10
Why do some High Networth Investors get those incredibly high funding for IPOs? A thread:🧵
Take Nykaa. It was gangbuster nuts in terms of subscription. By the last day of the IPO, BSE reports showed the HNI reservation was 100x oversubscribed.

You put 1 crore rupees, you get 1 lakh rupees worth shares. If share doubles, you make 1 lakh but that's just 1%.
So NBFCs say: we'll lend you Rs. 49 cr. Added up, that's 50 cr. and you'll get 50 lakh rupees worth shares. If THAT doubles, now that's a 50 lakh profit - or a 50% "ROI".

HNI thinks if something's 100x subscribed at IPO, it's minimum 2x. (RPOWER people now pause to laugh/cry)
Read 15 tweets
Jan 6
The Reliance $4 billion bond issue, at 2.8% to 3.75% is a solid achievement - it will reduce their interest cost (will be used to reduce current borrowing) and they're naturally hedged with their exports.

Disclosure: we are interested.
Okay since SO MANY PEOPLE seem to have problems with Reliance borrowing money at these obscenely low rates, a thread on why.

Reliance has 80,000 cr. of term loans from banks.
Reliance also has 150,000 cr. in mutual funds+GSec+TBills+bonds. So it is not a big worry.
Read 6 tweets

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