1)Portfolio Jan-end -
$ADYEY $AFRM $CFLT $DDOG $DLO $GLBE $GTLB $LILM $LSPD $MELI $MNDY $OKTA $S $SE $SOFI $SNOW $TOST $TWLO $U $ZI
Return since 1 Sept '16 -
Portfolio +641.57% (44.73%pa)
$ACWI +71.89% (10.51%pa)
$SPX +108.00% (14.47%pa)
Contd...
$ADYEY $AFRM $CFLT $DDOG $DLO $GLBE $GTLB $LILM $LSPD $MELI $MNDY $OKTA $S $SE $SOFI $SNOW $TOST $TWLO $U $ZI
Return since 1 Sept '16 -
Portfolio +641.57% (44.73%pa)
$ACWI +71.89% (10.51%pa)
$SPX +108.00% (14.47%pa)
Contd...
2) YTD return (2022)-
Portfolio (-)4.18%
$ACWI (-)4.96%
$SPX (-)5.26%
Biggest positions -
1) $DDOG 2) $CFLT 3) $ZI 4) $GTLB 5) $MELI
Contd....
Portfolio (-)4.18%
$ACWI (-)4.96%
$SPX (-)5.26%
Biggest positions -
1) $DDOG 2) $CFLT 3) $ZI 4) $GTLB 5) $MELI
Contd....
3) Commentary -
January was tough for stocks and it was especially brutal for growth stocks!
Before the month-end rally, $ARKK was down ~30% from the start of the year and both $ACWI and $SPX were down ~10%. The rally over the past couple of trading sessions eased some pain...
January was tough for stocks and it was especially brutal for growth stocks!
Before the month-end rally, $ARKK was down ~30% from the start of the year and both $ACWI and $SPX were down ~10%. The rally over the past couple of trading sessions eased some pain...
4)...but it was still a pretty difficult month.
Turning to my portfolio, it was a mixed bag. I kept scaling into my preferred stocks over the entire month and my corresponding $ARKK short mitigated my downside.
My portfolio stocks declined more than $ARKK...
Turning to my portfolio, it was a mixed bag. I kept scaling into my preferred stocks over the entire month and my corresponding $ARKK short mitigated my downside.
My portfolio stocks declined more than $ARKK...
5)...so it wasn't a perfect hedge (but good enough).
At the start of the month, I also went short index futures and the profits from this short position helped stop some of the bleeding in my portfolio.
During the first week of Jan, I also went long $TLT but that position..
At the start of the month, I also went short index futures and the profits from this short position helped stop some of the bleeding in my portfolio.
During the first week of Jan, I also went long $TLT but that position..
6)...turned against me, so I closed it with a small loss.
In terms of the markets, it is my belief that we are currently witnessing a relief rally (bear-market rebound) and after some additional near-term gains, the next downleg is likely to resume.
Anything can happen...
In terms of the markets, it is my belief that we are currently witnessing a relief rally (bear-market rebound) and after some additional near-term gains, the next downleg is likely to resume.
Anything can happen...
7)...but am of the view that once (most have been sucked in), this relief rally will fail before mid-February and we will then probably see the final flush which will take everything down (with nowhere to hide).
Accordingly, I'm planning to once again hedge my portfolio...
Accordingly, I'm planning to once again hedge my portfolio...
8)...after some more near-term gains and will also go short #RTY_F futures (so that I can profit from the final downleg of this bear-market).
The multiples of the US indices are still 15-20% above prior QE-end bear-market lows, QE is ending abruptly, there is talk of rate....
The multiples of the US indices are still 15-20% above prior QE-end bear-market lows, QE is ending abruptly, there is talk of rate....
9)...hikes and QT. Furthermore, the economy is decelerating sharply and this will become evident over the following months.
In summary, the Fed is tightening into a slowing economy and this has never ended well. Thus, this is the time for caution, risks are elevated.
THE END
In summary, the Fed is tightening into a slowing economy and this has never ended well. Thus, this is the time for caution, risks are elevated.
THE END
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